New Tropical Wave at 20/21w

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 0600 UTC ANALYSIS/SFC MAP ALONG 2OW/21W BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE VERTICAL SOUNDING FROM DAKAR SENEGAL THAT SHOWED THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE YESTERDAY. THE 20/00Z SOUNDING FROM SAL CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
SHOWING NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AT LOW LEVEL INDICATING THE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVE. IN ADDITION...850 MB AND 700 MB MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ALSO...THE CIMSS VORTICITY PRODUCT PROVIDES SOME SUPPORT FOR THE WAVE POSITION INDICATED. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0730 UTC ALSO REVEALS THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE. WAVE HAS A CLASSIC V-STRUCTURE ON EARLIER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 18W-23W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/wv-l.jpg
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Sto ... est_ir.jpg

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 202343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED JUST E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ALONG 22W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEEN
ON THE DECREASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAINING WITHIN 45 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. EVEN THOUGH THE
WAVE LACKS CONVECTION IT STILL SHOWS UP NICELY IN THE MIMIC TPW
ANIMATION AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. SFC OBSERVATION FROM W
AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALSO SHOW THE PRESCIENCE OF
THIS WAVE WITH PRESSURES ABOUT 1-2 MB LOWER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.
Not much changes but we should continue to monitor this wave..."pressures about 1-2 mb lower than yesterday"...maybe some potential in the next few days?!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The only reason "I" would watch this is for it to move into the western Atlantic and become another 93L or Humberto. Why because the enviroment is way to unfavorable east of 60.

[Gustywind]

The only reason "I" would watch this is for it to move into the western Atlantic and become another 93L or Humberto. Why because the enviroment is way to unfavorable east of 60.

Yeah absolutely... but tropics change very quickly , you never knows...and we're always in September keep watching east for sur...whereas... we should have to admit that right now conditions are unfavorable only right now...there's' always a lull, but once again don't let your guard down the season is not finished yet!!!