Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[wxman57]

I think there may be some confusion as to the definition of "well-defined" vs. "well-organized" as far as the low is concerned. As far as the low being well-defined, in that it is easily identified in the surface analysis, it certainly is. Winds around the low are up to 30 kts just off the Florida panhandle, and there's a very evident circulation in the pressure field and observations. But it's not "well-organized", meaning there is little (or no) convection near the center.

As you can see by the 21Z analysis below, on which I've indicated the isobars at 1mb intervals, it's quite well-defined. But it will have a tough time getting very organized before landfall. Humberto wasn't fighting an upper-level low overhead as this system will be for the next 48 hours. I think it can make it to tropical storm strength, and maybe have enough of a warm core to be called a TS, but its chances of reaching hurricane strength are minimal. Maybe not zero, but less than 10%.

[bwhorton2007]

Thank you wxman57 good post i agree.

[Dean4Storms]

I think there may be some confusion as to the definition of "well-defined" vs. "well-organized" as far as the low is concerned. As far as the low being well-defined, in that it is easily identified in the surface analysis, it certainly is. Winds around the low are up to 30 kts just off the Florida panhandle, and there's a very evident circulation in the pressure field and observations. But it's not "well-organized", meaning there is little (or no) convection near the center.

As you can see by the 21Z analysis below, on which I've indicated the isobars at 1mb intervals, it's quite well-defined. But it will have a tough time getting very organized before landfall. Humberto wasn't fighting an upper-level low overhead as this system will be for the next 48 hours. I think it can make it to tropical storm strength, and maybe have enough of a warm core to be called a TS, but its chances of reaching hurricane strength are minimal. Maybe not zero, but less than 10%.

I certainly agree with you there wxman57. It easily could attain TS strength with a warm core but hurricane strength is slim pickens. I think tomorrow is its do or die day.

[Recurve]

Sorry for the oneline but just have to say thanks again to Wxman for summing it up and posting useful graphics as always.

[JonathanBelles]

My thoughts: viewtopic.php?p=1640041#p1640041

[tailgater]

I have a feeling this Invest will be (sub)TD/Jerry the next time Recon flies out there. The Tshowers will build over 12 hrs. in part because of diurnal peak and partly because the ULL is moving out. You can already see more showers building on the radar out of Tampa on the last few frames.
If I'm wrong I'll ban myself for 1 week. That's the low level Recon.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... W&loop=yes

[Coredesat]

Recon mission over, they estimated 25 kt. Something tells me something was wrong with the SFMR on this mission, given the random 46 kt wind it spit out.

[shankbear]

Birdman...good to see you on here. Ditto everything you said about Rita and Mr. Simon.

[robbielyn]

Conditions here in spring hill just n of tampa we had strong wind gusts, and strong ts in one of the rainbands. Took some pictures with my cell of the meso dark blue in the background white hanging clouds really cool. right now convection is to the east of the center truly a cold core system. will continue into tomorrow. Still thundering. 1008.6 or 29.79 inches. dewpoint 69 degrees. Really the big story is the tornadoes in minnesota right now.

[Diva]

Hey there 3ABirdMan! Good to see you on here, my friend!

Just listened to a trusted met on KFDM and he told us all to stay alert and that we should have a better idea about this "system" tomorrow. As it looks right now it's just gonna be a rainmaker for us. I, for one, will be happy with that if that's all it ends up being.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hey there 3ABirdMan! Good to see you on here, my friend!

Just listened to a trusted met on KFDM and he told us all to stay alert and that we should have a better idea about this "system" tomorrow. As it looks right now it's just gonna be a rainmaker for us. I, for one, will be happy with that if that's all it ends up being.

Here near Houston, I don't think it has rained since Humberto. Hate to have to drag the sprinkler out after months of inactivity.

[3ABirdMan]

Hey there 3ABirdMan! Good to see you on here, my friend!

Just listened to a trusted met on KFDM and he told us all to stay alert and that we should have a better idea about this "system" tomorrow. As it looks right now it's just gonna be a rainmaker for us. I, for one, will be happy with that if that's all it ends up being.

Not me - IF it rains out SOFTBALL ! ! !

[HURAKAN]

TWD 805:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1005 MB...CENTERED ABOUT 100 NM WSW OF
TAMPA FLORIDA NEAR 27N84W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS GENERALLY N OF 25N E OF 87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
OVER AND JUST E OF FLORIDA. THE OVERALL TSTM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED
AND EXTENDS ROUGHLY WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER...WHICH INCLUDES
W CENTRAL AND NW FLORIDA. SFC OBSERVATIONS ARE CURRENTLY
REPORTING WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE...STRONGEST N OF
THE CENTER WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENED BETWEEN THE
LOW AND RIDGING TO THE NW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND ALL
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[lrak]

last visible I have it marked at 25.4N and 84.8W on my scratch pad.

at least I was close

[punkyg]

Hi guys i have not checked on 93L all day so fill me in
oh also why did yall stop talking?

All i know is that 93L is looking better.

[lrak]

the long range loop out of Tampa will show some spin.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... w&loop=yes

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003 NNW

[PTPatrick]

Lots of eddies floating around in that radar loop...BUT the main big dady seems to be the one due west of tampa...there are actually 2more if you squint within the line of convection rotating out into apalachee bay

[Cookiely]

I think there may be some confusion as to the definition of "well-defined" vs. "well-organized" as far as the low is concerned. As far as the low being well-defined, in that it is easily identified in the surface analysis, it certainly is. Winds around the low are up to 30 kts just off the Florida panhandle, and there's a very evident circulation in the pressure field and observations. But it's not "well-organized", meaning there is little (or no) convection near the center.

As you can see by the 21Z analysis below, on which I've indicated the isobars at 1mb intervals, it's quite well-defined. But it will have a tough time getting very organized before landfall. Humberto wasn't fighting an upper-level low overhead as this system will be for the next 48 hours. I think it can make it to tropical storm strength, and maybe have enough of a warm core to be called a TS, but its chances of reaching hurricane strength are minimal. Maybe not zero, but less than 10%.

Thank you so much for the graphics and the easy to understand analysis.

[cpdaman]

i'm a bit confused here

i thought the ULL was supposed to work down to the surface

so why then on the recent 93 wv loop does the center of the ULL appear to be at 29/ 84.5

yet the 8:oo update shows the low at 27n 84.5 did this low just develop NEAR the ull

.

[ajaxw]

You can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear! I have no idea what the passion is for trying to make this system into something it just isn't and won't become. ..it seems so many now think every swirl in the Gulf is on it's way to a Cat 5.

We were hit HARD by Rita in SETX (Bridge City), after dodging bullet after bullet for close to 30 years. Every time there was a threat, a cold front or an upper High would come along and shove the "worry" either to South TX or LA. Rita was the exception.<snip>

Imagine checking the NHC web site at 11:00 pm last Wednesday night, to be assured Humberto was only a low-grade TS - expecting 40-50 mph winds and rain to make landfall 50 miles away - only to be awakened at 4:30 am with no power, 80 mph winds, and horizontal rain on the eastern edge of the eyewall! I lost power around 3:00 am Thursday morning, and got it back Sunday evening. I had NO GAS in the gas cans, wasn't sure where the generator was in the garage, or if it would run, no water or food stores........... I was TOTALLY unprepared!

Those experiences far outshadow all of the "close-calls" and "false-alarms" we've had for nearly 3 decades. If another storm is lurking out there, I want all of the info I can get, so I can make educated decisions to protect my family and property. THAT'S why all the excitement!

<snip>It WAS a freak accident, but remember - When we went to bed last Wed. night, we expected a little wind and a lot of rain. With no power, and not being prepared, NONE of us knew we were waking up in the middle of a Cat I hurricane!

Welcome to Storm2K. I'm a lurker, too. Your post made me want to reply to defend Downdraft's original post. I symphathise with your experiences, as I've been in multiple tropical cyclones too. This is not directed at you specifically, but your post actually highlights several good points. In the case of Rita your post illustrates the consequences of complacence, showing that trusting storms to miss because they have missed before is a risky proposition. In the case of Humberto, your post shows the dangers of focusing exactly on the forecast track and not preparing even though a warning was issued. The 11 PM advisory for Humberto did not advertise a weak tropical storm; the trend for the day clearly showed strengthening and said "WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND WINDS COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE." Tropical storm watches did extend from the Galveston area to Intracostal City, LA, since the afternoon, adequate time to prepare for tropical storm force winds. So while a category 1 hurricane was indeed a shock, showing how difficult hurricane forecasting is, the fact is that the presence of warnings indicate either enough of a probability of strong winds to make preparing with food, water, and gas a course of least regret, and it was possible at least 9 hours prior to landfall given the NHC information.

Vigilance and sensible precautions (including preparing for a storm 1 category higher than forecast even if the forecast track does not cross you and you are in warnings or in the cone of uncertainty) are unassailable, and I encourage people to ask questions and seek information. Storm2K is indeed an excellent source of information, with excellent pro mets tirelessly and patiently answering even the most inane questions with finesse and insight. However, knowledge without a sense of perspective may be more harmful. Preparation doesn't require red alerts for every storm; in fact, I would argue that the red alerts your cite as harmless actually eventually leads to more stress and the sense of complacency that previously affected you with Rita (see Wilma as another example). In fact, too many posts make getting to the important stuff difficult indeed.

Back to on-topics matters with 93L, the evolution with the low forming in the eastern Gulf of Mexico has evolved just like Derek, AFM, and wxman predicted, so kudos.

Just my two cents. Be safe, everyone. Long live Storm2K and respectful disagreement.