Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

20/2332 UTC 27.6N 85.0W TOO WEAK 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

No progress towards development at this time.

[Steve]

>>Hi guys i have not checked on 93L all day so fill me in
oh also why did yall stop talking?

You can't possibly be serious.

Steve

[attallaman]

If something does develop and pose a threat to any part of the Mississippi Gulf Coast would it be something on the level of a TS Bill which made landfall west of Biloxi in the early evening hours on June 29, 2003 with peak sustained winds of 60 mph or would it be something much less? Would it turn out to be just a big rain event with not much wind? I was surprised by TS Bill's intensity when it made landfall that night.

[Opal storm]

I don't see anything serious coming out of this mess, maybe a brief TS like Arlene(05) at best. Just some much needed rain from NW FL to N.O and also some much needed surf!

[lrak]

I don't see anything serious coming out of this mess, maybe a brief TS like Arlene(05) at best. Just some much needed rain from NW FL to N.O and also some much needed surf!

its been out there long enough to push in a nice swell a few days from now along N Padre and S Padre area beaches.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

>>Hi guys i have not checked on 93L all day so fill me in
oh also why did yall stop talking?

You can't possibly be serious.

Steve

He probably meant because from 7:15 pm - 7:49 pm there were no new posts.

[Javlin]

i'm a bit confused here

i thought the ULL was supposed to work down to the surface

so why then on the recent 93 wv loop does the center of the ULL appear to be at 29/ 84.5

yet the 8:oo update shows the low at 27n 84.5 did this low just develop NEAR the ull

.

Yea I think you got it right,I think?and someone earlier today said that ULL's very seldom go N,and what do we have.Go figure,this has been as confusing as all__you know what I mean.All I want is some rain.But what is it with that phantom system 60hrs behind this one the Nam and GFS have been hinting with what 4 runs in a row now?

[HollynLA]

If something does develop and pose a threat to any part of the Mississippi Gulf Coast would it be something on the level of a TS Bill which made landfall west of Biloxi in the early evening hours on June 29, 2003 with peak sustained winds of 60 mph or would it be something much less? Would it turn out to be just a big rain event with not much wind? I was surprised by TS Bill's intensity when it made landfall that night.

okay, I'm confused, TS Bill in '03 made landfall in Terrebone parish, Louisiana. Are you thinking of another one?

[cag1953]

Well,I guess it's not coming here. Jim Cantore is on Pensacola Beach!

[Zardoz]

Ouch!

Oil Rises to Record for Seventh Day on Idled Gulf Production

Crude oil in New York rose to a record for a seventh day after the U.S. said that production in the Gulf of Mexico was shut in because of a storm threat.

More than 360,000 barrels, or 28 percent, of daily oil output was idled, the U.S. Minerals Management Service said today in a statement. Prices were already higher on signs that U.S. interest-rate cuts and a falling dollar will bolster demand.

"The storm threat and falling dollar are pushing us higher,'' said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president of global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA Inc. in New York. "We will see even bigger inventory draws in next week's statistics as a result of the evacuations in the Gulf.''

Crude oil for October delivery rose $1.39, or 1.7 percent, to settle at $83.32 a barrel at 2:50 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $83.90, the highest since the contract began trading in 1983. Prices are up 38 percent from a year earlier.

[canetracker]

>>Hi guys i have not checked on 93L all day so fill me in
oh also why did yall stop talking?

You can't possibly be serious.

Steve

This system is looking pretty dull at the moment, however, this could change soon and the board will light up again. Just my 2 cents but I still think this could pull a type of Humberto on us in that it gains tropical characteristics rapidly. Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability does not look half bad:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif and sheer does not seem to be a problem: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrshr.gif
Systems that spin down from the upper levels take some time but I dont think it will dissapate. I don't want to predict strength but we could see a TD or TS out of this.

[Stormcenter]

Ouch!

Oil Rises to Record for Seventh Day on Idled Gulf Production

Crude oil in New York rose to a record for a seventh day after the U.S. said that production in the Gulf of Mexico was shut in because of a storm threat.

More than 360,000 barrels, or 28 percent, of daily oil output was idled, the U.S. Minerals Management Service said today in a statement. Prices were already higher on signs that U.S. interest-rate cuts and a falling dollar will bolster demand.

"The storm threat and falling dollar are pushing us higher,'' said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president of global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA Inc. in New York. "We will see even bigger inventory draws in next week's statistics as a result of the evacuations in the Gulf.''

Crude oil for October delivery rose $1.39, or 1.7 percent, to settle at $83.32 a barrel at 2:50 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $83.90, the highest since the contract began trading in 1983. Prices are up 38 percent from a year earlier.

Totally rediculous!!!!!!!!! IMO
We don't even have a classified system.

[CrazyC83]

Ouch!

Oil Rises to Record for Seventh Day on Idled Gulf Production

Crude oil in New York rose to a record for a seventh day after the U.S. said that production in the Gulf of Mexico was shut in because of a storm threat.

More than 360,000 barrels, or 28 percent, of daily oil output was idled, the U.S. Minerals Management Service said today in a statement. Prices were already higher on signs that U.S. interest-rate cuts and a falling dollar will bolster demand.

"The storm threat and falling dollar are pushing us higher,'' said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president of global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA Inc. in New York. "We will see even bigger inventory draws in next week's statistics as a result of the evacuations in the Gulf.''

Crude oil for October delivery rose $1.39, or 1.7 percent, to settle at $83.32 a barrel at 2:50 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $83.90, the highest since the contract began trading in 1983. Prices are up 38 percent from a year earlier.

Totally rediculous!!!!!!!!! IMO
We don't even have a classified system.

The oil industry is so incredibly anxious after what happened in 2005...

[wxman57]

You have to understand how things work offshore. I've spent much of the past 3 days briefing the major oil companies on possible effects from this system. What they need to know is when the last full day of good helicopter flying weather will be. That was today. By tomorrow, thunderstorms from the disturbance will be moving into the deepwater drilling sites off the SE LA coast, making helicopter evacuations risky. So the oil companies had to make the decision to evacuate on Wednesday, before any development occurred. If they wait until it develops, then it's right on top of their deepwater platforms and those people can't be evacuated in the event of a rapid spin-up. The oil companies take NO chances with safety. There are 30,000-40,000 people living/working on those platforms. They can't be evacuated at the drop of a hat. Two days ago it looked like a legitimate hurricane threat (DSHP going near hurricane strength at landfall, with the track right over the main production areas), so evacuations were started. They couldn't wait until today or tomorrow to begin or the people would all be stuck out there if development occurred.

Ouch!

Oil Rises to Record for Seventh Day on Idled Gulf Production

Crude oil in New York rose to a record for a seventh day after the U.S. said that production in the Gulf of Mexico was shut in because of a storm threat.

More than 360,000 barrels, or 28 percent, of daily oil output was idled, the U.S. Minerals Management Service said today in a statement. Prices were already higher on signs that U.S. interest-rate cuts and a falling dollar will bolster demand.

"The storm threat and falling dollar are pushing us higher,'' said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president of global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA Inc. in New York. "We will see even bigger inventory draws in next week's statistics as a result of the evacuations in the Gulf.''

Crude oil for October delivery rose $1.39, or 1.7 percent, to settle at $83.32 a barrel at 2:50 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $83.90, the highest since the contract began trading in 1983. Prices are up 38 percent from a year earlier.

Totally rediculous!!!!!!!!! IMO
We don't even have a classified system.

[gatorcane]

I just snuck a peak at 93L.

It looks horrible. Alot of hype over this that is for sure. Here is my new motto
(I'm sure I can copy-and-paste this link *alot* on various threads on this board ). For as much crow as I ate for Ingrid, I think many should be eating it for 93L :

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98142

The Westerlies are entrenching themselves over the tropical Atlantic and soon enough those fronts are going to be dropping down as far south as Florida cooling the waters in the GOM and Western Atlantic.

I would keep my eyes on the SW Caribbean. It looks more impressive than 93L

[wxman57]

Here's another plot (00Z). I noticed the 2 offshore reports south of the FL Panhandle shifting from NE to NNE-N rather abruptly in the past hour, like a secondary low center is moving toward them from the east. See the analysis below. Pressure is still very low on the south side of the broad low. Surface winds 20-30 kts. central pressure may be down to 1004mb. Still needs some convection around at least ONE of the centers.

[Javlin]

Here's another plot (00Z). I noticed the 2 offshore reports south of the FL Panhandle shifting from NE to NNE-N rather abruptly in the past hour, like a secondary low center is moving toward them from the east. See the analysis below. Pressure is still very low on the south side of the broad low. Surface winds 20-30 kts. central pressure may be down to 1004mb. Still needs some convection around at least ONE of the centers.

The Northern L WX57 is part of the old ULL isn't ?On WV it has that appearence.Thks Kevin

[tailgater]

The last VDM
URNT12 KNHC 202225
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102007
A. 20/22:06:10Z
B. 26 deg 58 min N
084 deg 07 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 25 kt
E. 048 deg 57 nm
F. 125 deg 019 kt
G. 046 deg 059 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 23 C/ 343 m
J. 24 C/ 354 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/1
O. 0.02 / 8 nm
P. AF306 02IIA INVEST OB 16
MAX FL WIND 21 KT SE QUAD 21:31:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

[canetracker]

Here's another plot (00Z). I noticed the 2 offshore reports south of the FL Panhandle shifting from NE to NNE-N rather abruptly in the past hour, like a secondary low center is moving toward them from the east. See the analysis below. Pressure is still very low on the south side of the broad low. Surface winds 20-30 kts. central pressure may be down to 1004mb. Still needs some convection around at least ONE of the centers.

The Northern L WX57 is part of the old ULL isn't ?On WV it has that appearence.Thks Kevin

Steve Lyons just agreed with you and called this Northern Low the ULL.

[Noles2006]

Surface observations say this low in the NE GOM isn't only at the upper levels... getting some heavy rain with occasional lightning.