Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: INVEST 93L : Model Runs
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- DESTRUCTION5
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Early Cycle Guidance for 00z:
GFS 18Z Ensembles still showed a coast runner. I wonder if the 00Zs will adjust more in line with the early 00z's?
Early 00Z intensity mostly has it borderline in 36 hours.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
Steve
GFS 18Z Ensembles still showed a coast runner. I wonder if the 00Zs will adjust more in line with the early 00z's?
Early 00Z intensity mostly has it borderline in 36 hours.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
Steve
Last edited by Steve on Thu Sep 20, 2007 10:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: INVEST 93L : Model Runs
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: INVEST 93L : Model Runs
I think WX57 showed us maybe it does skirt the coast as did the last EURO run......hmmmm...is right....
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re:
southerngale wrote:That's inland when it starts moving west, right?
hard to tell but again the EURO painted this scenario as WX57 suggested that the EURO had it skirting the coast a 100miles off the coast all the way to south of Galveston.....maybe he was on to something.....time will tell...
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Re: Re:
ROCK wrote:southerngale wrote:That's inland when it starts moving west, right?
hard to tell but again the EURO painted this scenario as WX57 suggested that the EURO had it skirting the coast a 100miles off the coast all the way to south of Galveston.....maybe he was on to something.....time will tell...
Watching for a flood event for a large part of N/NW GOM coastal areas due to slow movement. 100 miles of shore for a distance "could" be troubling.
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Re: INVEST 93L : Model Runs
Looking at this GFS it seems to just sit over the LA/MS/AL coast from the36-60 hour time frame. Thats a whole day or more before moving inland.
edited to remove bad link.
Sorry. See down thread.
edited to remove bad link.
Sorry. See down thread.
Last edited by HeeBGBz on Thu Sep 20, 2007 11:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: INVEST 93L : Model Runs
HeeBGBz wrote:Looking at this GFS it seems to just sit over the LA/MS/AL coast from the36-60 hour time frame. Thats a whole day or more before moving inland.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MRF_0z/mrfloop.html#picture
I'm not sure if it stalling onshore (rain) or offshore (potential for intensification) would be worse... or if either will happen.
Tomorrow should make things clearer.
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- southerngale
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Re:
Steve wrote:>>Looking at this GFS it seems to just sit over the LA/MS/AL coast from the36-60 hour time frame.
That looks like the 9/20 00Z run. Wouldn't that be about 27 hours old? Or is it just my cpu.
Steve
Same here. I knew it looked different from what DESTRUCTION5 posted. I thought I was just sleepy! lol
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Re:
Steve wrote:>>Looking at this GFS it seems to just sit over the LA/MS/AL coast from the36-60 hour time frame.
That looks like the 9/20 00Z run. Wouldn't that be about 27 hours old? Or is it just my cpu.
Steve
Oops, you're right. I thought it was an automatic refresh. It doesn't appear to sit as long with the more current one, but there's that annoying L from the Caribbean showing up again.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/fpc.shtml
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