Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

. But prolly will see a TS out of this mess.

I agree. On NRL Satellite, bandinglike convection is increasing. 34 mph sustained south of Panhandle on surface obs...possibly apparent circulation on weather.com loop. Looks like we may have a storm tomorrow.

If it becomes Jerry, it may well be another less than 1 ACE system.

I see a LLC becoming much better defined at near 29 north/84.5 west and yes it should be yet another less then one Ace system, making it the 7th.

[Stormcenter]

There are some pretty stiff winds off the coast of the FL. panhandle.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SGOF1

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

LLC is now moving northwest or even west-northwest. It is now centered near 29.1/84.8. Low level clouds are showing a westly wind at the "surface" or near it. So we got a developing cyclone.

[SunnyThoughts]

Is recon scheduled to go out sometime tomorrow..err make that later this morning?

[Wx_Warrior]

Developing or not this isn't going to be strong. RAIN RAIN with plenty of tornadoes, which is just as bad if not worse....Nasty weekend for gulf coast...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

28.8-29.0 north/85 west in moving west-northwest is the center. The convection has became more organized with banding on radar developing. I feel we have a depression or a weak tropical storm now.

[lamsalfl]

The satellite looks like poop, but the radar tells a different story.

[Normandy]

The satellite looks like poop, but the radar tells a different story.

Sat is in an eclipse, freshest image is over 2 hours old. I made the same mistake with Humberto.

[lamsalfl]

How much longer until we get a new satellite image?

[Chacor]

The most recent night-time visible was from 8:26 Eastern...


And this IR is from 1:30 Eastern...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Another site with blurry satellite imagery during eclipse periods:
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&isingle=mult_big&itype=ir

[lamsalfl]

Another site with blurry satellite imagery during eclipse periods:
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&isingle=mult_big&itype=ir

well it looks like it hasn't weakened in the eclipse.

[rockyman]

yikes! It's looking a lot better this morning...I'm on Dauphin Island (Alabama) and have not made any preps yet...I guess I might be visiting my mama in Mobile after all (bless her heart and her natural gas powered generator)...considering astronomical high tide is coming tomorrow morning...and my lot sits just above sea level (though I'm 15 feet off the ground)

[Wx_Warrior]

Latest radar image shows the center near the florida panhandle....WOW...

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_lite_loop.php

This throws all models out the window

[rockyman]

if this is forming on the NE side of the ULL...it shoul be steered NW initially toward the Florida panhandle...then gradually bend back to the west toward the Mississippi Delta:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[Chris_in_Tampa]

At 2AM EDT:

28.1N 84.9W
30 knots
1004 mb

Source: NHC's ATCF database

[rockyman]

Eclipse is over...cloud tops have cooled some and wrapped around west side of system:

[attallaman]

Will this system end up being as strong as TS Bill in June 2003 which had peak sustained winds of 60 mph?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Nice, the LLC is around 28.5/85.3 on 85h. It also shows the northern rainband nicely. Recon should go out by 18z/5am est this morning.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?ACTIVES=07-EPAC-12E.IVO,07-EPAC-13E.NONAME,07-WPAC-14W.NONAME,07-IO-93B.INVEST,07-ATL-93L.INVEST,07-WPAC-95W.INVEST,07-WPAC-069.TCS069,07-WPAC-070.TCS070,07-WPAC-071.TCS071&PHOT=yes&ATCF_BASIN=al&NAV=tc&ATCF_YR=2007&ATCF_FILE=/data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2007/al932007.07092018.gif&CURRENT=20070921.0502.trmm.x.tmi_85h_1deg.93LINVEST.30kts-1004mb-281N-849W.61pc.jpg&AGE=Latest&CURRENT_ATCF=al932007.07092018.gif&ATCF_NAME=al932007&ATCF_DIR=/data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2007&YEAR=2007&YR=07&ACTION=Latest_Photos&ARCHIVE=active&MO=SEP&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=93L.INVEST&STYLE=tables&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&DISPLAY=Latest&DIR=/TC/tc07/ATL/93L.INVEST/tmi/tmi_85h/1degreeticks&TYPE=tmi&PROD=tmi_85h&SUB_PROD=1degreeticks&SIZE=full

[vaffie]

Worth noting that the convective complex in the Central Gulf/southwest of the 93L center has quickly dropping pressures too, and a ship passing through the northern half of the convective complex an hour ago reported 1005 mb and a light almost due east wind. Lower level vorticity is increasing in this area too indicating a surface circulation possibly developing. I would not be surprised if a new invest is issued by this afternoon at this rate. Due to much less shear in this area too and without any land interactions to worry about it may strengthen quickly.