Western Caribbean Disturbance

[jhamps10]

18 hours:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_018m.gif

24 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024m.gif

30 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030m.gif

[jhamps10]

TWC keeps repeatly saying that conditions will be unfavorable and it probably won't develop. It looks pretty good to me though.

I don't see it as a player right now and moving westward anyway per HNC.

well I don't know what the NHC is seeing, but what I'm seeing is around 15/82, and it aien't moving westward.

[jhamps10]

36:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036m.gif

42:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042m.gif

[Frank2]

They perhaps mention the westward movement, likely due to what is mentioned in the TCD:

A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE DEPRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON A TRACK NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE.

[jhamps10]

54:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054m.gif

[cycloneye]

Looks like GFS moves it thru Yucatan and emerges at the NW corner of that Penninsula.

[jhamps10]

Looks like GFS moves it thru Yucatan and emerges at the NW corner of that Penninsula.

yeah, and the tip of the penninsula at that too it looks like. May not be in the mountainious areas...

Looks like TX/LA should watch out.

[jhamps10]

60, 66 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066m.gif

[jhamps10]

this would REALLY hurt it, no change that. it would kill this:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066m.gif

[jhamps10]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072m.gif
72 hours,

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078m.gif
78 hours

[Portastorm]

I don't like this 12z GFS run at all!

Looks like a landfall of the system in about 90 hrs near the Golden Triangle. Those poor folks don't need anything like this.

[jhamps10]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084m.gif

84 hours, landfall between beaumont and Houston/Galveston

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[perk]

I don't like this 12z GFS run at all!

Looks like a landfall of the system in about 90 hrs near the Golden Triangle. Those poor folks don't need anything like this.

Look like the nogaps is showing a landfall in that same general area.

[Wx_Warrior]

Dont like it...BUT

I will wait until something forms....All should have learned their lesson..(cough cough)

[Portastorm]

Dont like it...BUT

I will wait until something forms....All should have learned their lesson..(cough cough)

Isn't that the truth!

[Ptarmigan]

This one should be watched. Looks like TX/LA could be in for it. I expect it will become Invest 94L.

[southerngale]

I haven't been paying attention to this.... has it improved much over the past few days or still pretty much the same? Local met (greg_kfdm_tv on here) posted this as a reply on a local board a little while ago:

Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 11:00 am

Unfortunately, this will be something to watch as well.

It should move across the northern Yucatan by Saturday and into the southern Gulf Sunday.

Upper level conditions are becoming more favorable for development.
_________________
Greg Bostwick
Chief Meteorologist
KFDM-TV

Meh.... bring on winter!

[cpdaman]

looks like the circulation around "10" IS bringing this moisture and convection toward florida looks like a rainy afternoon developing

[hurricanetrack]

Not this season- just not in the cards. Something was missed, perhaps, when the big players made their 15-17 named storms/lots of canes predictions. Looks like 2 bad years in a row- 3 if you count the enormous bust of '05.

But- the good news is no big hurricanes to worry about- not yet and not in this pattern.