Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[RL3AO]

still a depression

[Category 5]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 212030
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.4 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES... 75 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65
MILES...100 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION VERY NEAR THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEPRESSION.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...29.9 N...86.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Thunder44]

still a depression

And moving WNW at 9mph.

[RL3AO]

How is the center line going into Alabama?

[miamicanes177]

the discussion admits that winds might have been at tropical storm force so this will likely be an unnamed tropical storm in the post season analysis if they decide keep it as a depression in the following advisories.

[Opal storm]

To me it looks like it will make landfall around Navarre just before midnight tonight, and by "it" I mean that swirl of thunderstorms just south of Walton county/Destin. Not sure how the NHC thinks it will make landfall in AL/MS.

[CrazyC83]

the discussion admits that winds might have been at tropical storm force so this will likely be an unnamed tropical storm in the post season analysis if they decide keep it as a depression in the following advisories.

If that is the case, I expect a "bogus" upgrade to TS Jerry just before landfall so that at least it has a name so they don't be stuck with an unnamed TS.

[HURAKAN]

latest:

[PhillyWX]

the discussion admits that winds might have been at tropical storm force so this will likely be an unnamed tropical storm in the post season analysis if they decide keep it as a depression in the following advisories.

If that is the case, I expect a "bogus" upgrade to TS Jerry just before landfall so that at least it has a name so they don't be stuck with an unnamed TS.

It'll probably be a 40 mph storm at landfall without any winds to TS force other than offshore. It'll only put me one storm closer to verification for the season.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Convection increasing near the core of the system. Can't wait for the recon to simple the highest winds again now. In yes it was a tropical storm the last time they did so. 38-39 knot surface winds and 47 knot flight level supports it.

[Category 5]

Convection increasing near the core of the system. Can't wait for the recon to simple the highest winds again now. In yes it was a tropical storm the last time they did so. 38-39 knot surface winds and 47 knot flight level supports it.

I agree with you, I was quite surprised that it wasn't upgraded now.

I hate to question the NHC but I would like to know why they put it down as moving WNW and why this wasn't upgraded. And why the cone hasn't come back further east.

[lrak]

What about the LLC at 25.5n 88w, it looks like its finally seperated from TD 10 and heading for Florida?

[Opal storm]

Steve Lyons said it looks like it will make landfall in 3-4 hours near Destin...then slide along the coast to Pensacola and AL/MS.

[MGC]

Why name TD 10 "Jerry" if it is not a TS? Naming the system will only give insurance companies a way out of paying. They will invoke the "named storm" exclusion rules. So, if you happen to be one of the poor people that suffers some wind damage they will try to wiggle off the hook and not pay up. Anyway, I was thinking Pensacola earlier and that might be a bit too west at the look of thinks. Of course the surface center may not be where the radar center is. But who knows? With the history of this system, spinning up lows by day only to have them dissipate by night who knows it the current low is nothing more that a transient low and another could form elsewhere......MGC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Just in

205400 2922N 08658W 8434 01553 0083 +164 +164 006006 009 034 004 00

SFMR has 34 knots at the surface. More to come.

[Pearl River]

It looks to me like the llc is alittle bit further south than the radar center, but I also wear bi-focals too. Blind in one eye, can't see out the other.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

URNT12 KWBC 212050
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/2031Z
B. 29 DEG 57 MIN N
86 DEG 18 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1463 M
D. 30 KT
E. 200 DEG 12 NM
F. 215 DEG 24 KT
G. 195 DEG 24 NM
H. 1004 MB
I. 18 C/1516 M
J. 19 C/1515 M
K. 19 C/NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA2 05IIA INVEST OB 24 AL102007
MAX FL WIND 36 KT SE QUAD 1704Z
MAX SFMR WIND 37 KT SE QUAD 1705Z
SLP BY SONDE
CENTER SONDE 17 KTS AT SFC

Surface data still shows tropical storm.

[tailgater]

I think a new center will form farther south as the one we've been watching starts to wind down.

[tolakram]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

From the looks of it landfall in about 1 hour. Optical illusion? Is that the upper low I'm seeing?

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... g_off=9999

[miamicanes177]

Why name TD 10 "Jerry" if it is not a TS?

Because the recon data can not be disputed and it clearly shows winds of tropical storm force occuring at the surface. I'm all for waiting on data before upgrading, but now that we have the evidence it is time to upgrade. 47kts at FL and 38kts SFMR is plenty to support at least a 35kt tropical storm.