Western Caribbean Disturbance

[jhamps10]

666
ABNT20 KNHC 212117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007

FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
SURFACES PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

humm, that's not right.... We've got several reports of pressure falls from NOAA reporting sites, so I don't see what NHC is saying by no pressure falling.

[HURAKAN]

Pressure falls at this time could be attributed to the normal daily cycle and not necessarily because of the disturbance.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

Look at that graph and you will clearly see the cycle.

If you see that cycle disrupted, then it could be attributed to the disturbance or something else.

[jhamps10]

also GFS is starting to roll in too.

[jhamps10]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006m.gif

6 hour GFS

someone else needs to post form here, I must start to cook dinner. My night to cook.

[stu]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048m.gif

48 Hr - low to the North of the Yuck..

[sphelps8681]

Did I hear Steve Lyons just say that this thing will works it way to Tx/La border. What kind of storm do you think this will turn in to.

[MiamiensisWx]

It looks like a nice precipitation event is setting up for southern FL. Latest Miami sounding indicates rising CAPE values (+2,000) and lifted index near -4. An upper-level jet streak + widespread conducive RH values is evident on satellite imagery (click here). Some heavy thunderstorms have been developing over Broward and Palm Beach counties per Miami radar, while the Keys should receive heavy rainfall (watch out, weatherwindow in Cayo Hueso). Portions of Palm Beach County have received one-hour totals (estimated in radar) in excess of +2.00 inches! Instability is decent, too.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/archive/upperair/skewt/mfl/07092112.gif

This is definitely related to the interaction between the Gulf upper low and this Caribbean mess.

[stu]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060m.gif

60Hr - Central West GOM

[stu]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072m.gif

72 hr North West of central GOM (sorry if this does not make sence)

[sphelps8681]

Did I hear Steve Lyons just say this thing will make it's way to the Tx/La border within 72 hrs. What kind of strom do you think this will be?

I posted this once already, but it never came up.

[ROCK]

Did I hear Steve Lyons just say this thing will make it's way to the Tx/La border within 72 hrs. What kind of strom do you think this will be?

I posted this once already, but it never came up.

who knows right now.... its not even formed a LLC yet......just watch the guidance for now and worry about intensity once something forms.....thats how I look at it anyway....

[stu]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084m.gif

GFS +84H

Central North West GOM, South of the TX/LA line

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like shear will be really high in this area, if it actually forms I wouldn't expect more than a sheared TS.

[jabman98]

Local met here in Houston just made a big deal of this area on his forecast. Says could be an issue early next week.

[stu]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096m.gif

18z GFS +96H - low now not shown - inland at this stage ??

[americanrebel]

What is the likely hood of the LLC in the middle of the gulf sucking up moisture from the trough and forming something?

[Ptarmigan]

I heard on the local news, it could develop into a tropical system. Bears watching.

[jabman98]

What is the likely hood of the LLC in the middle of the gulf sucking up moisture from the trough and forming something?

Not sure about the LLC, but the local met said there was a lot of warm, undisturbed water in the middle of the gulf that was good for strengthening. Called it some kind of "warm trough" or something - sorry, wasn't listening closely.

I heard on the local news, it could develop into a tropical system. Bears watching.

Absolutely.

[jhamps10]

Local met here in Houston just made a big deal of this area on his forecast. Says could be an issue early next week.

that wouldn't be the met on channel 2 would it?

[Ptarmigan]

Tim Heller of ABC 13 writes a blog about this tropical wave. He thinks possible it could become a hurricane by Sunday night.

Link