What's Up With the NHC???

[Sean in New Orleans]

First they call a tropical storm warning from the end of the MS River all the way to Appalachicola..then the storm moves NW, goes over land and then they cancel all of the warnings and say that the storm will continue to move in the same direction (when they earlier said that it would switch to W/NW as opposed to NW), and now, the storm is hugging the coast and seems to have switched to almost due West (just a hair above W, IMO). What is the deal with this little system where nothing can be grasped? As I've argued against the practice before, is the NHC staring at computer models too much and abandoning traditional, more reliable forecasting methods previously utilized before computers? It seems today's mets are sitting around waiting on what the computer says and not using the hints that Mother Nature gives us??? Hey, they do a great job, but, I've always been opposed to how much reliance is placed on computer models, which are programmed by the mets themselves. It's pretty bad when you can't follow a system that is only 40 miles off the coast, IMO. Come on...let's get back to watching barometric pressure and satellite. Man is smarter than a computer in the end......

[CrazyC83]

Instead of "What's Up With the NHC???" it is more like "What's Up With TD10???" Maybe it is trying to become Jerry at the last minute?

[Sean in New Orleans]

I'd like to know why, in discussions, the ONLY thing that is mentioned is the models? Why isn't simple stats such as barometric pressure, wind directions, radar echos, and satellite images ever mentioned in the discussion? It seems that the only thing under consideration is what the computer models say and guessing or assuming which one is correct.

[miamicanes177]

I'd like to know why, in discussions, the ONLY thing that is mentioned is the models? Why isn't simple stats such as barometric pressure, wind directions, radar echos, and satellite images ever mentioned in the discussion? It seems that the only thing under consideration is what the computer models say and guessing or assuming which one is correct.

I'm actually thinking about making my own track forecasts an hour ahead of the NHC advisories because I believe I might perform just as well as they do. Just follow the CONU model as pro met AFM said.

[Ixolib]

I'm actually thinking about making my own track forecasts an hour ahead of the NHC advisories because I believe I might perform just as well as they do. Just follow the CONU model as pro met AFM said.

Well, you wouldn't be the first to pull that trick!!

[wxman57]

TD 10 moved inland east of Pensacola and is now northeast of the city well inland. Winds around the center are now about 10-15 kts over NW Florida. It's not heading back over water. There is no longer a tropical storm threat. NHC should have moved their track a lot farther north on the last advisory.

[hurricanetrack]

Yep. Not sure why anyone is so bent out of shape with the NHC- it is not their fault that we have quite a dud season on our hands- with millions of S2k man hours poured in to almost a nothing event.

While the standard disclaimer of "we don't want to see death and destruction" always applies, it really does, it would be nice to get a decent, run of the mill, easy to predict, nobody gets killed hurricane. I think people are a little frustrated at the lack luster performance of most systems this year.

I have only myself to blame for the countless hours staring at a new GFS or ECMWF or reading "LATEST" posted 1,567 times above satellite pictures or hoping that perhaps someone on this board knows something that no one else in the world does and can give us a decent hurricane. I mean hey- that's why we are all (99%) here, right? If not, then there would be a lot more people applauding the demise of the much bally-hooed hurricane seasons of 2006/2007 that have not come to pass. We thought we were going to see something big in the Gulf- and it was not even a close call. It is frustrating at times- but the line between wanting to see some serious Nature-gone-wild and hoping that lives are not destroyed can be a thin one at times- as "be careful what you wish for" is always one Katrina away.

[Derek Ortt]

you wouldn't come within light years of NHC, miamicanes

[Brent]

you wouldn't come within light years of NHC, miamicanes

[Category 5]

I'm actually thinking about making my own track forecasts an hour ahead of the NHC advisories because I believe I might perform just as well as they do. Just follow the CONU model as pro met AFM said.

I'd like to see you try.

This should be amusing. I'll prepare the Crow.

[Coredesat]

Okay, I'm locking this now...