Hurricane Rita Anniversary Thread

[Category 5]

As you know, 2 years ago today, Tropical Storm Rita was approaching the Florida Keys, what happened next is history.

[Category 5]

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HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA PASSING SOUTH OF KEY WEST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST. THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY AS RITA MOVES FARTHER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NORTH OF FLORIDA
CITY AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 55 MILES...90
KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK
WILL BRING RITA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. SAND KEY JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60
MPH...97 KM/HR AND A GUST OF 92 MPH...148 KM/HR. VARADERO CUBA
MEASURED GUSTS TO 60 MPH...90 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST....BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS EVENING.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...EXCEPT UP TO 20 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...24.0 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 973 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$
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[Category 5]

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HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA REACHES 165 MPH WINDS...BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...THE SECOND OF THE 2005 SEASON...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO
NORTHWARD.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES.

PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY AND THE LATEST
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
LARGE WAVES ON TOP AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...24.4 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$
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HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA CONTINUING TO DEEPEN...
...NOW THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
ON RECORD...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 580 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES.

PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY AND THE LATEST
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 898 MB...26.55 INCHES. THIS MAKES RITA THE
THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
LARGE WAVES ON TOP AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...898 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA


$$
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ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

CORRECTED RAINFALL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA

...CATEGORY FIVE RITA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY
MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA... FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA... AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES...
915 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 670 MILES...
1080 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 897 MB...26.49 INCHES.
THIS MEANS RITA IS THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD
EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. AFTER RITA MOVES
INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...24.6 N... 87.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 897 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
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ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
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HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

AND YET ANOTHER CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THIS SEASON. DATA FROM BOTH
NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT
PRESSURE DROP TODAY AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 KNOTS. THIS IS
BASED ON A 700 MB WIND OF 161 KNOTS RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR
FORCE PLANE AND A RECALIBRATED SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 146 KNOTS.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNANIMOUSLY 140 KNOTS FROM ALL
AGENCIES. BECAUSE RITA WILL BE CROSSING AN AREA OF HIGH HEAT
CONTENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
HURRICANE WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...THE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AND THE INTENSITY CHANGES WILL BE CONTROLLED
MAINLY BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND DECREASING HEAT CONTENT.
SOME WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BUT RITA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN AND RITA IS MOVING
WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
HAS BEEN FORCING RITA WESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
CORE OF RITA IS BASICALLY MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALREADY EXTEND ABOUT 150 N MI IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BECAUSE ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF THE WIND
FIELD IS ANTICIPATED...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 24.4N 86.8W 145 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 24.5N 88.5W 145 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 25.2N 90.6W 145 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 26.0N 92.7W 135 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 27.0N 94.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/1800Z 33.0N 97.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/1800Z 36.0N 96.0W 25 KT...INLAND


$$
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ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
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HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

RITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A
DROPSONDE IN THE EYE OF RITA AROUND 21/2309Z RECORDED A PRESSURE OF
899 MB WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 32 KT. ANYTHING BELOW 10 KT IS
USUALLY CONSIDERED A VALID PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THUMB
RULE IS TO DECREASE THE PRESSURE 1 MB FOR EVERY 10 KT ABOVE THAT
WIND SPEED. IN THIS CASE... RITA'S CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 897 MB...MAKING IT THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THE LAST RECON PASS ONLY INDICATED
2 REPORTS OF 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 157 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. HOWEVER... ODT VALUES OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS HAVE AVERAGED
BETWEEN T7.3/149 KT AND T7.4/152 KT... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 150 KT. THE PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP FOR AN 897
MB PRESSURE IS 160 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08. RITA HAS ACTUALLY MADE A
LARGE WOBBLE AND SLOWED TO A 285/06 KT MOTION THE PAST 6 HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUCH MOTION CHANGES...WHICH ARE NOT UNUSUAL FOR
EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING TROPICAL CYCLONES AS THE INNER CORE WIND
FIELD AND CONVECTIVE PATTERN REORGANIZES...ARE CONSIDERED TEMPORARY
AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO SHORTLY RESUME A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE
18Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE CONVERGENT THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS... WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS DOING THEIR USUAL
AFTERNOON EASTWARD SHIFT. THOSE MODELS NOW BRING RITA ACROSS THE
HOUSTON-GALVESTON AREA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OTHER
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE STABILIZED THEIR FORECAST TRACKS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE CONSENSUS HAVING SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ALSO SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...BUT NOT AS
FAR AS THE GFS/GFDL MODELS...SINCE IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON WEAKENING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST BASED 22/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATING 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN IS PERFECT WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
CONVERGING INTO AN UPPER-LOW NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... AN
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONVERGING INTO AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND A THIRD WEAK OUTFLOW CHANNEL DEVELOPING TO
THE NORTHWEST. THIS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE PATTERN...COMBINED WITH
30-31C SSTS...HAS ALLOWED RITA'S EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING TO OCCUR. THE
EYE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE WARM GULF LOOP CURRENT DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE... IF AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DOES NOT INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS. BY 36-48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE CURRENT THREE OUTFLOW CHANNEL PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY
MAINLY A LARGE POLEWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN. THIS SHOULD INDUCE SOME
STEADY WEAKENING...BUT THAT TYPE OF OUTFLOW PATTERN...COUPLED WITH
EXPECTED LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS...IS STILL SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. OF COURSE...
INTERNAL DYNAMICS ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN WHAT THE INTENSITY OF A
HURRICANE WILL BE... AND WE HAVE NO SKILL IN FORECASTING EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES BEYOND ABOUT 6-12 HOURS...AT BEST. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE TREND OF THE SHIPS MODEL...ONLY SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATED BY THE
NOGAPS...CANADIAN...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 24.6N 87.2W 150 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 24.9N 88.7W 155 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 25.5N 90.5W 150 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 26.3N 92.4W 145 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 27.5N 94.2W 135 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 31.0N 96.4W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/0000Z 33.5N 96.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/0000Z 35.0N 96.5W 25 KT...DISSIAPTING INLAND

$$
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[Senobia]

Yep. The rest was history...overshadowed by Katrina. Rita was The Hurricane That Wasn't.

For the record, people were still in FEMA trailers (some of which were destroyed) when Humberto came through last week. So it might be history for some people, but to many it's still a current event.

[Flyinman]

Oh gee, was there actually a Hurricane Rita?? I have not seen the news coverage preparing us for the anniversary. I guess the millions of dollars in damage our property (commercial real estate) sustained was not a big deal. I saw one of our centers on Fox News. Always great to be the top story! There are still reminders every day of Rita. While the area as a whole recovered remarkably fast there are still many areas where trees are still down, buildings are falling apart, blue roofs a plenty, etc. Not to mention, even two years later many retail places are still struglling to maintain a full staff. These are things people do not think about. I am so proud of our area I cannot begin to express it in words. Nobody was prepared for a storm like Rita, but I can say with 100 % confidence, if we have a storm like her or stronger we will rebound as quickly if not quicker!! Kudos Southeast Texas.

[Ptarmigan]

I remember Rita well. Everyone in Houston area evacuated causing massive gridlock. It scared everyone, the biggest since Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.

[JessRomero]

I have to say that is something I NEVER want to experience again. I had a 4 month old baby we luckly left the night before and went a hour and half north WHICH was not far enough but we though it was. We got hit so hard that night we actually left a trailer and went to a persons how across the road we didn't even know with trees fallin all around. The tornado noises where UNREAL scariest thing I have ever heard. Finally that morning we got back to the trailer we were staying at there was no running water no power no gas and a little baby for me to take care of. We stayed 3 days till we where running out of formula my husband had to get gas for the truck we only had half a tank and we had to get to tyler to get baby formula so he found a buddies boat that told his to take it apart to get the gas out so he sucked out. We went across the street were we stayed to the people that helped to give them gas cause they had a 90 yr old lady on Oxygen and running a generator but no gas: so we gave them gas never seen so many teary eyes. THey wanted to give us money but we said no because what we need we can't buy here and money isn't goin get it right now lol But I will tell u this I am into weather now like never before for the sake of my family we didn't have a house for 9 months my husband and many others were displaced. I have 2 kids now and I am not goin to sit around and think it couldnt happen to us again. But to say I think southeast texas came together like no other town I have ever seen. Our little community has some BIG hearts. Because Humberto knocked some people back down that were just getting on there feet again and the community came together again. But I will say that I will never forget Rita it changed my life in ways that have made my family and community so much stronger.

[Jagno]

Lost my home. Enough said!

[Category 5]

[MBryant]

Rita.

Evacuated invalid mother by ambulance Wednesday night. She arrived in Tyler after ambulance was involved in a wreck early Thursday.

Evacuated son Thursday morning. Arrived in Tyler about noon after a surprisingly quick trip. It took my sister 28 hours to get there from Houston.

Wee couldn't even get into town for three weeks to assess the damage. We lost a garage and our fences. One tree fell on the middle of the house and a tree top fell on the south end of the house. After removing the trees and repairing the roof, I was able to have my mother brought back after 44 days. Later the cedar siding began curling so the outside of the house was replaced with siding.

It was not something I would want to do again, but to be honest, We came out of it with insurance paying for a new roof and siding which would have needed attention soon anyway. I have to look at the silver lining. It's just my nature.