Western Caribbean Disturbance

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[HURAKAN]

Station 42056 - Yucatan Basin

1150 SSE ( 159 deg ) 25.6 kts
1140 SSE ( 163 deg ) 26.6 kts
1130 SSE ( 160 deg ) 27.6 kts
1120 SE ( 140 deg ) 23.3 kts
1110 SE ( 140 deg ) 28.2 kts
1100 SE ( 140 deg ) 28.7 kts

Supplemental Measurements Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
1052 31.1 kts SE ( 138 deg true )

Very gusty winds!!!

[caneman]

They need to put a floater on this puppy.

[caneman]

pressure has dropped like a rock in Belize. Where is the invest! A drop of 12 millibars in a 1/2 hour!

http://www.wunderground.com/global/BH.html

[cycloneye]

They need to put a floater on this puppy.

And tag a invest too.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



First visible.

[ronjon]

I think with the GFS model support that this system will develop. I can't say enough about how the GFS has performed this season besting even the Euro with TD 10. As I posted yesterday, this tropical disturbance may be the greatest threat of a major hurricane LF in the gulf coast states. Water temps planty warm, no serious cold fronts expected with a general summertime pattern forecast over the next week to 10 days. This one could be our third major of the year.

[cycloneye]

A problem if this develops is interaction with land,especially the Yucatan.

[perk]

I think with the GFS model support that this system will develop. I can't say enough about how the GFS has performed this season besting even the Euro with TD 10. As I posted yesterday, this tropical disturbance may be the greatest threat of a major hurricane LF in the gulf coast states. Water temps planty warm, no serious cold fronts expected with a general summertime pattern forecast over the next week to 10 days. This one could be our third major of the year.

The nogaps is also still showing development.

[vaffie]

I think it looks quite ominous this morning. I think Houston we have a problem, soon...

[caneman]

A problem if this develops is interaction with land,especially the Yucatan.

Cycloneye,

The Yuc poses very little in deterring a system. Living here in West Florida I've sen many a system not get downgraded much going over such a flat small stretch of land. And it may not even go over it at all or just a small part.

[hurricanetrack]

I think with the GFS model support that this system will develop. I can't say enough about how the GFS has performed this season besting even the Euro with TD 10. As I posted yesterday, this tropical disturbance may be the greatest threat of a major hurricane LF in the gulf coast states. Water temps planty warm, no serious cold fronts expected with a general summertime pattern forecast over the next week to 10 days. This one could be our third major of the year.

Upper level winds not all that good for development, not the worst, but not very good either:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif

Also, none of the global models, none of them, show this getting very strong. If the Canadian does not show this going nuts then I can assume it will not make it past tropical storm status. I mean, geez, when the Canadian is weak? Come on....you know something is wrong with the season as a whole. My bet is tropical storm at best but more rain in areas that don't need it.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[cycloneye]

If something forms from that mass,the area to watch is north of Honduras and East of Belize.

[wxman57]

I think with the GFS model support that this system will develop. I can't say enough about how the GFS has performed this season besting even the Euro with TD 10. As I posted yesterday, this tropical disturbance may be the greatest threat of a major hurricane LF in the gulf coast states. Water temps planty warm, no serious cold fronts expected with a general summertime pattern forecast over the next week to 10 days. This one could be our third major of the year.

If you like the GFS so much, and I agree it did well with TD 10, then you need to look at what it's forecasting with this system. I plotted the 200mb winds/streamlines and a 1mb surface analysis valid 7pm tomorrow evening. Note the weak low embedded in a southerly jet of 40-60 kts. Yes, there's a weak upper high over the eastern side of the low, but the center is caught in the jet. What this indicates is that the type of system which could develop would be a highly-sheared TS with an exposed center and squalls to the east, not a major hurricane.

[vaffie]

After studying the surface reports and other things, I've concluded that the area to be looking for a surface circulation is just south of Cozumel and east of Chetumal. Approximately 20N, 86W.

[hurricanetrack]

We just gotta keep looking...nothing to see here though. Perhaps later next week something comes out of the deep tropics as indicated by most of the models- where a nice anticyclone exists.

[Portastorm]

Interesting because that is what JB said on his Big Dog vid yesterday ... that if something develops, it'll be the kind of hybrid-looking system that has its main punch to the east and northeast of the center.

[cycloneye]

We just gotta keep looking...nothing to see here though. Perhaps later next week something comes out of the deep tropics as indicated by most of the models- where a nice anticyclone exists.

Yes,after some weeks of unfavorable pattern,it looks like a late surge in the MDR may be in the cards in the next couple of weeks as more favorable conditions will be present.

[caneman]

Come on man. When will you guys learn. You know models have a hard time with upper winds aloft several days down the road. Models didn't handle the ULL's movement that plaqued TD10 well at all. It is a wait and see. Condionts can change quickly just as they can linger longer than models expected.