Texas winter: Any early thoughts?

[Portastorm]

With today being the first day of fall, I thought I would see if I could start a discussion about our upcoming winter down here in Tejas. We appear to have a strong La Nina as we enter the fall and I've read where the pros think this will continue into the start of winter. What does that mean for Texas' winter? Warm and dry?

Does anyone have any good La Nina winter analog years where we've had at least one exciting winter weather event?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here are a few memorable La Nina winters (in terms of major events in the Houston area)...

Winter of 1947-1948 (La Nina)
-From Jan. 27th until Jan. 29th (1948), Houston remained below freezing for a total of 58 hours.

Winter of 1950-1951 (La Nina)
-From Jan. 29th until Feb. 3rd (1951), Houston remained below freezing for a total of 123 hours. During this period, Houston also recieved one of it's worst ice storms in history.
-Houston hit a low of 15˚ on Feb. 2nd, 1951.

Winter of 1964-1965 (La Nina)
-Houston recieved a glaze of ice on Feb. 24th, 1965.

Winter of 1970-1971 (La Nina)
-Houston recieved a glaze of ice on Jan. 7/8, 1971.

Winter of 1988-1989 (Strong La Nina)
-From Feb. 3rd until Feb. 8th (1989), Houston remained below freezing for a total of 110 hours. During this period, a glaze of ice and a trace of snow fell across the city.



And here is a look at a few of the most recent La Nina winters..

1995-1996
-On December 9th, 1995 a strong blue norther rips through dropping temperatures from the mid 70s in the morning to the upper 30s by midnight.
-IAH hits 27˚ (hard freeze) on December 11th, 1995.
-High temperatures below 60˚ are recorded starting on December 19th and ending on December 25th. This is a 6-day stretch of chilly conditions.
-IAH hits 26˚ (hard freeze) on January 7th, 1996.
-IAH hits 19˚ (very hard freeze) on January 8/9th, 1996.
-IAH hits 26˚ (hard freeze) on January 19/20th, 1996.
-IAH records a high of 39˚ and a low of 31˚ on February 2nd, 1996. Rain and fog is also reported for a good part of the day.
-IAH records a high of 39˚ and a low of 25˚ (hard freeze) on February 3rd, 1996. IAH also records a trace of snow (0.01") during the early morning.
-IAH hits 22˚ (hard freeze) on February 4/5th, 1996.

1998-1999
-IAH records a high of 36˚ on December 23rd, 1998.
-IAH records a high of 39˚ on December 24th, 1998.
-IAH hits 27˚ (hard freeze) on December 26th, 1998.
-IAH hits 25˚(hard freeze) on January 5th, 1999.

2000-2001
-IAH records a high of 39˚ on December 12th, 2000.
-IAH hits 26˚ (hard freeze) on December 30th, 2000.
-IAH records a high of 36˚and a low of 32˚ (with precip.) on January 1st, 2001.
-IAH hits 26˚ (hard freeze) on January 3rd, 2001.
-IAH hits 26˚ (hard freeze) on January 20th, 2001.


So, while overall the winter may be warm and dry, it is certainly not uncommon to get a few strong arctic blasts into Texas during a La Nina Winter. In fact, on occassion, you will even get a record-breaking, memorable event...such as in Jan/Feb 1951 and Feb 1989. Will this year feature another one of these memorable events? Time will tell...

[Portastorm]

Why am I not surprised EWG that you'd be the first to respond?

This is great stuff ... thanks a bunch!

I went back and looked at the weather for Austin for the winters of both 98-99 and 00-01. Two things jumped out at me. One, each winter clearly had a major winter weather event for the Austin area and both winters' events occurred in December. The second thing I noticed is that outside of those events, the winter temps were very mild with 98-99 being more above normal than the 00-01 winter.

[PhillyWX]

Three of my analogs that I'm looking at for this winter are 1996-7, 1974-5, and 1998-9. 74-75 was cold for North TX and the Panhandle and 96-97 was slightly below normal. 98-99 was a blowtorch across the country east of the Divide.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If PhllyWX's anaologs are correct, then here is a look at Houston's most interesting events during those 3 winters...

Winter of 1974-1975
-Morning lows of 30˚ or below were experienced from Dec. 1st - Dec. 5th (1974).
-A Blue Norther came through on Jan. 12th, 1975 dropping temperatures from 66˚ in the morning down to 35˚ by nightfall. Rain turning over to non-accumulating snow was also reported at IAH during this event. On the following day, Jan. 13th, a low temperature of 21˚ (hard freeze) was hit at IAH.
-A low of 21˚ (hard freeze) was reached at IAH on Jan. 14th (1975).
-A low of 27˚ (hard freeze) was reached at IAH on Jan. 15th (1975).
-A low of 25˚ (hard freeze) was reached at IAH on Feb. 7th (1975).
-A low of 25˚ (hard freeze) was reached at IAH on Feb. 8th (1975).
-A low of 27˚ (hard freeze) was reached at IAH on Feb. 24th (1975).
-A low of 27˚ (hard freeze) was reached at IAH on Feb. 25th (1975).

Winter of 1996-1997
-On December 18th, 1996 a rain/snow mix was reported across the area with a high of 42˚ a low of 32˚ and an average daily dewpoint of 19˚ (meaning good evaporational cooling). No accumulations were recorded.
-A low of 22˚ (hard freeze) was reached at IAH on Dec. 19th (1996).
-A low of 23˚ (hard freeze) was reached at IAH on Dec. 20th (1996).
-A high of 39˚ was recorded at IAH on Jan. 8th (1997).
-On Jan. 13th, 1997 the high at IAH only reached 32˚ with a low of 28˚. On this day, rain, thunder, freezing rain, sleet and snow were all reported across the area. Significant ice accumulations were recorded across parts of the city.
-On Jan. 14th, 1997 the high at IAH only reached 34˚ with a low of 28˚. Some additional freezing rain/fog was recored during the morning hours.
-A low of 27˚ (hard freeze) was reached at IAH on Jan. 18th (1997).


Winter of 1998-1999
**See my first post**

[JonathanBelles]

Can somebody do that for Florida even though we dont really have that type of winter.

[Taffy]

Please, do the same for Florida?

I sent an email to my weatherman. I asked what La Nina meant to our winter weather. I am still waiting for a response. I think I understand that La Nina will mean a milder than normal winter? Is that correct?

[JonathanBelles]

Please, do the same for Florida?

I sent an email to my weatherman. I asked what La Nina meant to our winter weather. I am still waiting for a response. I think I understand that La Nina will mean a milder than normal winter? Is that correct?

I thought it was colder, maybe not.

[Extremeweatherguy]

La Nina winters are usually (but not always) warmer and drier than normal across the S and SE United States. However, as I pointed out for Texas, a few arctic blasts are common during La Nina winters, and when they occur, they can tend to be quite sharp...sometimes even more so than normal.

fact789 - - as for the Tampa area in specific, the last 2 La Nina Winters looked like this...

Winter of 2000-2001
- December was 3.7˚ below normal. Multiple mornings featured lows in the 30s and 40s, and there were two distinct arctic blasts. The first arctic blast led to a high of 48˚ and a low of 32˚ on Dec. 20th (2000) and the second arctic blast led to a high of 48˚ and a low of 30˚ on Dec. 31st (2000).
-January was 6.1˚ below normal. The first 10 days of the month remained below 70˚ with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s occuring multiple times. Things were a bit milder for the next week or two, but between Jan. 21st and Jan. 27th (2001) there was another stretch of below 70˚ weather. The low temperature reached the 30s ten times during the January of 2001.
-February, unlike the rest of the winter, was 5.4˚ above normal. The lowest temperature reached was 43˚ during the month.

Winter of 1998-1999
-December was 4.7˚ above normal. The lowest temperature reached was 43˚ during the month.
-January was 2.5˚ above normal. However, an arctic blast at the beginning of the month led to a high of only 48˚ on Jan. 5th (1999) and a low of only 30˚ on Jan. 6th (1999).
-February was 1.5˚ above normal. The lowest temperature reached was 39˚ during the month.

[JonathanBelles]

Im doing a little research and I'm not liking what I am finding. Warm and Dry with an above average occurrence of hurricanes toward the end of the season and above average fires. Yuck, I had enough of that this year. I want the opposite of all that.

[Taffy]

thankyou for posting the research. Our weatherman emailed me back and said the same thing. That usually it is warmer and drier BUT not always. That it usually means a more active fire season. He also pointed out that last year was an El Nino and that we warm and dry.. instead of wet and cold... soooooo, I am praying for cold and wet and I will take what I get and be happy.

[PhillyWX]

Please, do the same for Florida?

I sent an email to my weatherman. I asked what La Nina meant to our winter weather. I am still waiting for a response. I think I understand that La Nina will mean a milder than normal winter? Is that correct?

All three of my analogs showed warmer than normal for FL. You guys get the southeast ridge all winter.

[JonathanBelles]

Please, do the same for Florida?

I sent an email to my weatherman. I asked what La Nina meant to our winter weather. I am still waiting for a response. I think I understand that La Nina will mean a milder than normal winter? Is that correct?

All three of my analogs showed warmer than normal for FL. You guys get the southeast ridge all winter.

We had that darned ridge last winter.

[CaptinCrunch]

Hello, to all my friends on S2K!!

It's been quite some time since I posted last, well that’s because it hasn’t been winter yet...lol. Man, what a nice summer it has been across N TX, way above avg rains, and below avg temps for the most part. Summer saw only a hand full of 100 degree days, and record rains for June and July. Now let’s turn our attention to the Fall and Winter of 2007/08.

I don’t have much good news about this coming winter, as too many things point to an above avg temps, and below avg percip season. First let’s start with the arctic ice coverage or should I say lack of. I am posting a few links to show just how much LESS ice coverage there is on this date compared to the past few years.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SNOW/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SNOW/ARCH06/AK/ims2006267_alaska.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SNOW/ARCH05/AK/ims2005267_alaska.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SNOW/ARCH04/AK/ims2004268_alaska.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SNOW/ARCH03/AK/ims2003267_alaska.gif

It is sad, but a new record was set this year for the least amount of ice coverage in the arctic north since records started being kept. With less ice coverage going in to winter, the later in the season we will see cold arctic fronts making an impacted on Texas or the Deep South for that matter. Temps across the arctic north have been dropping below freezing but temps are still running 7 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

La Nina, (moderate for most of winter) La Nina usually translates to a warmer/drier winter for most, now that don’t mean we wont get any arctic fronts down here, just means we wont see as many as we would during a El Nino winter as we had last season. For the precip part the gulf coast areas should see average amounts this winter, but for the rest below avg precip will be the case.

This winter won’t be like last winter and that’s for sure, I expect a record (top 10) warm winter for much of the US this year when it’s all said and done with. Areas that could see a good winter are the Pacific NW, The Great Lakes region, and the far NE from Mass up to Maine.

So to recap things, Less arctic ice, La Nina, Record warm summer http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2917.htm, Drought stricken parts of the country (SE & SW), Windows Vista, and high gas prices =

RECORD WARM WINTER TO COME

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I have a few thoughts.

The first "real" front will hit in November.

EWG will come on here and post every run of the GFS showing a historic snow for Houston Metro.

Portstorm and I will be hammering the NWS offices accross the state and wish the old timers at NWS Brownsville were still around to talk about long term pattern recognition without the computer models.

And Air Force Met will come on here a slap all of us down to reality.

So be it another typical winter coming up on Storm 2K.

[PhillyWX]

Hello, to all my friends on S2K!!
So to recap things, Less arctic ice, La Nina, Record warm summer http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2917.htm, Drought stricken parts of the country (SE & SW), Windows Vista, and high gas prices =

RECORD WARM WINTER TO COME

It was "only" the 6th warmest summer nationwide. Last summer, I believe, was warmer.

[CaptinCrunch]

Hi PhillyWX,

I do beleive that last summer was warmer over all than this years summer, but what this summer had was the record breaking heat waves in W and parts of the SE, it was also much drier for most on the West and East coast areas this year as well depleating much needed soil moisture in those areas.

Last year was an El Nino winter which tend to be colder/wetter and there was much more arctic ice going into October than there in this year. The record cold spells of last year in the OHIO valley parts wont be repeated again this year due to La Nina and an lass than active polor jet across the northern part of the country.

For me, I can tell you what kind of winter you'll have by how cold it gets on Halloween. Last year on Halloween it got down into the mid 40's (I even lit the fireplace) and thats sets the tone for the coming winter.

This year we will most likely take the kids tricker treating in shorts, as we did durning the last La Nina winter, I think it was in the mid to upper 70's that year on Halloween, and a mild/dry winter followed.

[PhillyWX]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2700.htm

2nd warmest JJA period on record.

[Extremeweatherguy]

FWIW, Houston saw more hard freezes during the '98-'99 and '00-'01 La Nina winters then they did during the "cold" winter we had last year. I think this is likely b/c drier conditions with fewer clouds leaves more oppurtunities for good radational cooling to occur. Also, it is important to note that the La Nina "warm and dry" rule is not set in stone. During the '00-'01 La Nina, Houston (IAH) averaged below normal for temperatures during both December and January. While I do not think the same will happen this year, I do think (based on history) we will at least see some sharp arctic fronts every now and then..capable of hard freezes and possibly a winter event if we're lucky ( ).

[Portastorm]

I have a few thoughts.

The first "real" front will hit in November.

EWG will come on here and post every run of the GFS showing a historic snow for Houston Metro.

Portstorm and I will be hammering the NWS offices accross the state and wish the old timers at NWS Brownsville were still around to talk about long term pattern recognition without the computer models.

And Air Force Met will come on here a slap all of us down to reality.

So be it another typical winter coming up on Storm 2K.

Oh, I love it .. this made me laugh! As Homer Simpson would say: "it's funny 'cuz it's true!"

With regards to La Nina, I read an interesting blog today from Joe Lundburg from Accuwx. He points out that the location of the coldest water temps off the South American coast play a role in what TYPE of La Nina conditions we may see. As well, we also have to consider what the NAO (among others) does this winter as one pre-eminent pattern signature rarely rules the roost!