Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[Cyclone1]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

It's alive.

[vaffie]

Initialized at 25 knots, centered at 18N, 85.5W

[chadtm80]

lol Cyclone.. Must of been at the same dang time.. I just went ahead and deleted mine

[Cyclone1]

lol Cyclone.. Must of been at the same dang time.. I just went ahead and deleted mine

Whatever works. You posted your like 15 seconds before me, but it's only because I wrote Caribbean in the title. Darn specifics.



Firing deep convection near the west edge.

[Sanibel]

Another dry scattered look. Synoptics have smashed it into a distorted long shape.

[vaffie]

Firing deep convection near the west edge.

That's not the western edge--that's where the center is located. 18N, 85.5W.

[HURAKAN]

Latest: First as 94L

[Cyclone1]

Firing deep convection near the west edge.

That's not the western edge--that's where the center is located. 18N, 85.5W.

Really? Wow. Deep convection over the center, is there an LLC (developing)?

[HURAKAN]

[chadtm80]

Getting Recon Ready?

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 23/1630Z
D. 24.0N 91.0W
E. 23/1600Z TO 23/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 24/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 24/0500Z
D. 26.0N 93.0W
E. 24/0500Z TO 24/1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....BEGIN 3 HRLY FIXES 24/1500Z IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON TD-10 WAS CANCELED BY 22/0000Z.

[Portastorm]

Isn't it understood that the BAMM brothers don't work well this far north out of the tropics?

The shunting of the system to the southwest is curious as I'm not aware of any strong high pressure expecting to build into Texas. We're in a fairly static, late-summer pattern. A very weak front is supposed to wash out in mid-week in north Texas. So ... I dunno.

[CrazyC83]

It looks better than TD10 looked...

[RL3AO]

How is this an invest and not the area in the north Atlantic?

[HURAKAN]

latest:

[PTrackerLA]

Looks interesting but it will have to cross the Yuc before anything gets started. Also the GFS shows high wind shear but we shall see what unfolds.

[sphelps8681]

From Dr. Jeff Masters

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L wll be making landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm, but regardless, Texas and Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Link: http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200709

[Extremeweatherguy]

I can see it being possible that we will see a sheared TS out of this before it finally makes landfall in Texas or SW Louisiana, but ATM I am not too worried about anything too strong or destructive. Will be interesting to monitor though..especially since the SHIPS models bring this up to 55-64 knots.

[ronjon]

I can see it being possible that we will see a sheared TS out of this before it finally makes landfall in Texas or SW Louisiana, but ATM I am not too worried about anything too strong or destructive. Will be interesting to monitor though..especially since the SHIPS models bring this up to 55-64 knots.

Unless it stalls like the BAMs are showing, in which case it could develop into a major.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[HURAKAN]

423
ABNT20 KNHC 221510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH