Fact789's Blog-Associates Degree and Summer Plans

[JonathanBelles]

Im going only do a short forecast at this time:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 092007I

At this time, I am only going to do a summary of the situation and my thoughts.
First the situation, Winds are certainly high enough for a status, I'd guess 30-35 mph. I have experianced 20-25 mph winds with higher gusts in bands. Pressure in 93L is dropping, again not a problem. Shear has dropped and is not a problem. The external environment is not a problem it is the internal environment is the problem. Im pretty sure this still lies in the cold core (extratropical) to subtropical range. This is making the conversion to warm core and may be there tonight or tomorrow. Numerous recon flights are planned for this flight and when they find warm core, we will have TD10.

Now my thoughts and forecast. This system is developing and is causing severe weather in Fl. This system has the possibility to create tornadoes, waterspouts, hail, and high winds. I expect 93L to move NWward toward NOLA. I think LA sticks out just far enough to get hit possibly with Cat 1 Jerry. Anyone from South Central LA to JAX, Fl to be on watch for severe weather over the next couple of days.

[JonathanBelles]

Hey everyone,
This afternoon I'm going on a Pirates Cruise. Ill be leaving out of Pirate's Cove in Clearwater at about 2p. Its a short cruise, only 2 hours, out of Clearwater and up clearwater beach and back. I expect it to be a very bumpy ride because of the weather. Rain all over the place and im sure the seas today are rough. Ill be taking my seasick medicine and a pepsi along. Ill be sure to take pictures IF I can, If its raining I wont risk taking out the camera. This will be my first time out in the GOM other than swimming, so it should be fun.

Ill update later with pictures if possible and other happenings including an update from school.

[JonathanBelles]

Well, The cruise itself was as expected,but the weather was worse. I could not take pictures. A few were taken by others, when I get them I will post them. We hit one line of storms that had the rain going horizontally with winds of 30-40mph at times. You know me, I was right up there with the capitan. He had a radar that I was watching and he turned us away from the worst part of the storm. The grand finally was even worse. My sister decided to fall down 12 steel steps. Her elbow is messed up and she came very near cracking 5 ribs and she did bruise 6 ribs. She is OK. She drove us to Shells where we had a cruise type meal. We had crab, lobster, shrimp, fries, cole slaw, baked potato, salad, tropical drinks, and of course a 5star desert. I was the only one to finish everything I cam ehome and slept from 7p to 9a!

I guess I cant go anywhere, Anytime that I do, I come back and see more invests and usually a new TC. grrr lol

Ill be back later with a personal update.

[tropicana]

nice post fact, hope your sister feels better, cracked ribs must hurt.

-justin-

[JonathanBelles]

School Update
I am doing wonderfully in school. Ill be jumping into week 6 tomorrow. So far I have had 5 tests. So far the highest two were both 100's, one in Earth Science and one in Macroeconomics. The other two scores were 97 in College Algebra and 90 in American Government. Ive had one other test that hasnt been graded. Ive done one small paper and one large, both of which haven't been graded. I have another small paper due this Thursday. I have one test this week in math. I'm stilll getting used to things and meeting new people. Ive laready had two embarrasing moments, both by the professors after getting 100's. Both professors announced my 100 in front of the class, one professor made me give a speech. (ick) Lets just say I had a whole lot of new (probably unwanted) friends. All things are going smoothly.

At the HS I go over for interact meetings on Tuesdays after their school day and on fridays during their homeroom to recycle for interact. Most clubs havent started at either school.

Everything is good in my neck of the woods.

[JonathanBelles]

another school update:
College: Just got my first small paper grade back from Macro, 12/12 WOOT! that keeps my grade at a 100 and I also got my 2nd test grade in macro as a 27/30 (90%) but my professor drops the lowest test score keeping my grade at a 100% WOOT!

HS: got my Transcript and Bright Futures transcript update today. I have moved up to 14 out of 357 from 16 in my class! I also now qualify for 75% off all college expenses starting next year.

[JonathanBelles]

I should be able to do a few forecasts this weekend as I have very little HW this weekend!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 092707

Today Lorenzo rapidly intensified and Karen began feeling the effects of high shear. I will only be doing summaries/analysis' on these two systems.





Western BOC...Nearing Mexico...Hurricane Lorenzo...This is under primary serious advisory mode. Lorenzo went under extreme RI today and may still be undergoing intensification. I expect this to near or enter category 2 status by the time it makes landfall between 1 and 5am tomorrow morning. Lorenzo looks good on Satellite, shear remains low, convergence which was formerly a problem is rising. Conditions are very favorable. Recon tonight will be very interesting as was the flight today. I dont see much of a limit to intensity other than landfall. I am thinking that it will intensify until landfall. An eye may pop through before landfall, but visibles. The path is pretty certain at this point. Anywhere west of Lorenzo should be preparing for a hurricane and in shelters.

Southwestern North Atlantic...Tropical Storm Karen...This is my secondary watch only for the time being. Karen is being sheared and shear is increasing in the immediate future. Karen will weaken to about 40-45mph until it sees the light of the tunnel. When Karen comes out the other side of the heavy shear we will have a much better estimate of intensity and path. The only thing I am willing to say with 95% confidence is that Karen will go south of Bermuda. I think Karen will stay toward the southern side of the NHC cone and just my thinking is that Karen will come very close to the US possibly regaining hurricane strength. The next 36-72 hrs are critical for Karen, she must survive that time frame to get anywhere. I'm going to leave the cone relatively wide for the time being. All of those west of Karen need to be on watch.

[JonathanBelles]

Updates-
*Karen is now under a Wobble Watch
*Lorenzo is a dissipating TS now and Watches and Warnings should be dropped in the next few hours.
*The primary serious advisory mode has now switched to Karen.
*New area to be watched in the CVI, adv tonight, not included in afternoon adv.

[JonathanBelles]

Just a few nots about advs today, I got caught up with personal stuff, like the Homecoming/USF games and a Dentist appointment, but I will do a forecast as soon as I get up, which may be late as tired as I feel right now.

[JonathanBelles]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 092907

I am now 100% sure Karen is an open wave. Melissa was upgraded to a TS.

>>>No map with this advisory.

Southwestern North Atlantic...Ex-Karen....This is under primary serious advisory mode, but this will be going to Melissa next adv. The shear around Karen is decreasing but is very high. If her low redevelops it will likely be Noel. If ex-Karen develops, which I dont think it will at this point it will still have to fight moderate shear for the next few days. Most other factors are eliminated by the high shear. All watches are dropped for this system as of the next advisory.

Eastern Atlantic....Tropical Storm Melissa. Melissa will walk into the same death trap Ingrid and Karen did, shear. Melissa is expected to track NW to WNW for the long term. Shear is decreasing for the short term, but will be increasing in the long term likely downgrading Melissa back to a TD. The further west Melissa goes, the better off she will be. SST's are marginal for development. If development occurs, it will be slow. I expect Melissa to intensify no more than 40kts, and its not likely she will reach that.

[JonathanBelles]

Update:
I just wanted to mention Melissa has tied for the most number of tropical storms in one month with 2002.

[JonathanBelles]

Personal Update

Today and Yesturday have been pretty good days with numerous climax. Yesterday was a boring day until 3:30. I did recycle at the HS yesterday, but numerous people were missing because of other obligations. Then I had a dentists appointment at 4. The first time I have come out of the dentist with nothing wrong And get this, instead of a sticker or another prize, everyone is now given a COOKIE!!! I was floored, a way of getting more money? Come on now! Then I came home and then left and went to CiCi's and ate, with half of the school before the Homecoming game, which I hadn't planned on going to. I ended up going, Dixie (my HS) won. Ill likely be stealing pics from my sister later. Then I went to fifth quarter, an after game party, for an hour or so. it was ok. Then I came home and watched the USF game. This town was confused last night, to wear blue (dixie) or Green (USF) lol. Most ended up wearing a green top/bottom, a blue bottom/top and a white belt! haha.

Today has been a Saturday. A lazy, late morning and a lazy all day. Just been looking at the weather all day and watching TWC and the LSU game. Im waiting for the UF game tonight.

[tropicana]

what a coincidence! i went to the dentist this week too (for a checkup) , i'm all good too, but they didnt give me anything, not even a cookie. Grrrrrrr!

-justin-

[JonathanBelles]

October forecast: viewtopic.php?p=1647836#p1647836

[JonathanBelles]

This is for people outside the forum, and for those those who dont like to read extremely long forecasts. I tried to shorten it as much as I could.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Fact789’s Abbreviated October Forecast for the Southeastern US

This is something I am going to try for this month. If I like how it turns out I will do another one for November, if I don’t I will wait a few months until I gain more experience. I am going to try to include every type of weather there is including hurricanes, fronts, pressure systems, temperature, and precipitation. They will be based on current observation, The Farmer’s Almanac, NOAA predictions, and my personal thoughts. I am making this a Southeastern US forecast only because, I am the most experienced in the SE, and I don’t feel confident enough to do it for the Entire US with much accuracy. I define the SE as Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Mississippi, North and South Carolina. I would very much appreciate all criticism and/or questions or comments.





Precipitation
In general, I expect the south east to be at or above average in terms of rain. The further south you are, the more precip you will likely get. I hate to say that because TN/AL/GA/MS are all in horrible shape for water. The 100 year drought is going on and I suspect it should get better. The law of averages says you have to get the flip side of the puzzle at some point. I don’t think this will happen this month. I do think there will be some improvement to the drought. In a survey of people across the southeast those in this area think it will continue to dry out. It is that areas driest month unfortunately. Late month I do expect the fronts to start penetrating the south. The Farmer’s Almanac expects frost midmonth in some locations. Honestly, I don’t think that will be too far off. Here I have noticed it has been right around or just higher than average in terms of precip, and I expect that to continue. Tropical development may bring heavy rains to the south this month as it is climatologically the month Florida’s west coast gets hit the most. For early October, TC’s may impact the WGOM and shift east throughout the month. I do not expect any further drought development.





Temperature
In general, I expect everyone to be about average with extensive warm and dry spots. My sources give mixed results on where the Temperature will go. I am leaning toward the cooler side this Autumn. It is already cooling here, no more 90’s. I expect the first week to be warmer than average, and then a cool down. Normally if we are going to have a warm winter, we don’t cool down for a while. I expect a few cool dips in the south. Coastal areas, of course, will stay warmer than others. October is the best of both worlds in terms of not being too hot or too cool.


The Tropics
I expect an active October. I expect at least 4 named storms. I think 5 storms are likely and 6 not out of the question. This is the West Coast of Florida’s best or worst, depending on how you put it, chance of getting a TC. Rebekah or Sebastien may be reachable this month. I expect there to be a quiet period for the first part of the month. I expect a long-ended season, possibly going into December. I expect at least one more strong system in the Atlantic by the end of the season. Unless the shear decreases as a whole over the Atlantic, I expect more short term storms to come out of the ITCZ and out of the Western Caribbean/GOM. I think one of those may be a long runner coming from the Caribbean over Florida and out to the Atlantic possibly hitting the Carolinas or Canada on the way out. I expect a slightly above normal October in terms of the Tropics.

Other Features
The wind will be the big story for the first part of the month. Wind will be rotating around the High stuck over the NE. I expect several severe weather outbreaks this month as the number of cold fronts increase.

Overall
I expect an average October in all corners. The Tropics may give trouble mid- to late-month. I don’t expect the normal lull that normally occurs this month.

Let me say again, any and all criticism is welcome. If you liked it please tell me as well.

Thank you!
Jonathan B.

[JonathanBelles]

Time for an update:

Weather
The weather today is perfect! It was still crisp at noontime. Temps went into low 70's!!!!!!! lol. Still didnt hit those magical 60's. As long as I stay out of the 90's I think ill be ok.

Happenings
School: I got a B on my first big paper oh well. Thats the only class I really dont like. Its Composition 1, bad teacher, worse syllabus. At midterm, (still waiting for one grade in Macro) I have 4 A's and that blasted B. The curse of the English B's might just continue. I have two papers due on Halloween and another big one due in December. Other than that I have no other papers. I hit equilibrium this week for 3 of my classes, in other words I have 100% in those classes. This time of year is when my grades start going down with more and more tests. Then the last 3-4 weeks my grades go back up . Im starting the financial aid hoopla this week and last too. I have no idea if I put down myself as a senior or a freshman and my HS counselor doesnt know, and Ive got to go talk to a college FAA...Financial Aid Assistant...this week. Week 9 starts next week, so I a half way through my first semester of College!!!! Ill be registering for next semester the 1st and 2nd week of November.

Home: Sent in my senior pic order last week. There are a few proofs on my myspace if you want to see a few. I might be going on 2 cruises in May/June, and at least one for graduation! My dad works for AFLAC and he's close to winning a 4 day cruise to Mexico in May! Yay. I havent been there for more than a few hours, so that would be exciting.

Other than that, not much going on.

[JonathanBelles]

Time for an Update:

Weather
In summary the weather here is fall in the am and summer in the pm Still no 60's, and now they arent even in the forecast. Very cloudy day today

Happenings
nothing new in the weather world or the college life. In the personal, you know Ive been blabbering about Universal Studios in Otown. I'm super excited. It feels like the first time I went, and in someways it will likely be the best trip over. I am sleeping ahead of time for the long day (likely 6a-4a) My goal is this time that I go on every single ride that I want to go on. There are only a few that I dont wanna go on, like the couch, wooden coaster crapola, the birdbrain ride, and the dope coaster. I might attempt on going on the Hulk, I havent done that ride yet. Of course the highlight of the trip is Halloween Horror Nights. Im super super excited for that. Ive been reading reviews and so far there is only one house I may not enter because of so told oppresive heat and claustrophobia. Me and my sister have been having screaming matches and scare-the-other-person-around-the-corner-a-thons to prepare. less than 48hrs now!! yay! I would take a video camera, but its gonna be dark for HHN, ill take pics if and where I can. This is definatly the highlight of my week.

Next week I will also transform my house into a haunted facade for Halloween night. Nov 1st starts the Christmas Season, if it hasnt started already. The other day I was in Kmart and I went to look at Halloween stuff, they didnt have very much. Instead I looked at Christmas stuff...oops.

Anyway Its Halloween Season!!!!!!!!!!!!

[JonathanBelles]

less than 24hrs now!!! WOOT WOOT!!!

[JonathanBelles]

13hrs till I wake up and 16hrs till I leave for Orlando, and less than 24 hrs until HHN!!!!!

[tropicana]

im so sooo excited for u, i know you will have a blast. its gonna be unseasonably hot in Orlando tomorrow, they are calling for temps in the low 90s, so stay cool! and be safe!

-justin-