Well Organized Low Pressure SSW of Cape Verde Islands

[Vortex]

GFS takes it due west for the next 5 days...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

Looks fairly good.

[punkyg]

When did this area pop up? last night, was it the wave the game off africa yesterday.

[Fego]

From the TWO 11:30 a.m.

..."
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS
SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH."

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[cycloneye]

12z CMC

The Canadian model develops this low pressure and moves it towards the Lesser Antilles.

[Gustywind]

Posted by: JeffMasters, 10:23 AM EDT on September 22, 2007
From weatherwunderground....interresting thing to monitor as TD developement seems highly possible early next week!

A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.
Jeff Masters

[punkyg]

I think this will be tagged an invest at 8pm tonight.
Oh man its getting better organized faster then i thought.
do yall think so

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

A 1012 MB LOWPRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 5N21W...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 21W AND 22W...FROM 6N
TO 9N BETWEEN 23W AND 24W... AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W
AND 24W. ONE LONE CELL OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 11N22.5W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N43W
11N50W 7N55W.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS

The 12z NOGAPS develops this,however not in a strong way.Being NOGAPS always a conservative model,showing this is interesting.

[Gustywind]

12z NOGAPS

The 12z NOGAPS develops this,however not in a strong way.Being NOGAPS always a conservative model,showing this is interesting.

Yeah cycloneye but develops it lool that's the fact!

[RL3AO]

Maybe a repeat of Helene last year?

[chadtm80]

Latest:



This post dedicated to Frick and Frack

[Cyclenall]

I didn't see this one coming. Maybe, just maybe one last CV storm? . It does look really good for this time of year, and really south. This wouldn't be a another Helene IMO.

It would be nice after the grief the last 1.5 weeks of the Atlantic gave me.

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 18:15 UTC

[Gustywind]

The Latest at 18:15 UTC

Looking good...more convection!

[HUC]

Really something to bears watching !!!When a wave after exiting Mama Africa is ganing convection over the water,and so more south...MMMMMMM......

[BigA]

Looks pretty good, and its not that late for Cape Verde development. There have been a number of Cape Verde tropical storms and hurricanes that have formed east of 40W in the Atlantic on Sept 20 or after in the last twelve years (since the beginning of the active cycle). For the record, and because I like archiving, they are:

Hurricane Noel (Sept 27-Oct7 1995)-Cat 1 Fish
TS Pablo (Oct 5-Oct8 1995)-Short lived TS that dissipated before reaching Lesser Antilles
Hurricane Isadore ( Sept 24-Oct 1 1996)- Cat 3 that never made it west of 45W
Hurricane Isacc (Sept 21-Oct 1 2000)-Reached Cat 4 Intensity while recurving east of Bermuda
Hurricane Joyce (Sept 25-Oct 2, 2000)-Low latitude Cat 1 that weakened to an open wave soon after passing through the southern Lesser Antilles
Hurricane Kate (Sept 25-Oct 7, 2003) Cat 3 that moved west, then north, then west, and didnt affect land
TS Nicholas ( Oct 13-23, 2003) Strong TS that moved northeast east of the Lesser Antilles, and was likely killed by shear (I dont remember)
Hurricane Lisa (Sept 19-Oct 3, 2003)-Became a Hurricane at 37 North, did not affect land

The thing all these storms have in common is that they didn't seriously affect land. However, this system is at a low latitude, and the models dont forecast it getting yanked north, so nothing is assured.

The convective structure looks good right now.

[HUC]

And Flora........and,and.....

[MiamiensisWx]

I see some hints of a LLC in the most recent ascending QuikSCAT pass. Look at the region between 26W-16W and 10N-5N. Note the winds E and W of the void. It may be partially closed, but the system was largely missed.

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