Tropical Depression LORENZO: Global & hurricane Models

[HURAKAN]

320
WHXX01 KWBC 221401
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1401 UTC SAT SEP 22 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20070922 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070922 1200 070923 0000 070923 1200 070924 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 85.5W 19.6N 87.5W 21.1N 89.5W 22.5N 91.0W
BAMD 18.0N 85.5W 19.7N 87.1W 21.4N 88.8W 23.3N 90.5W
BAMM 18.0N 85.5W 19.6N 87.3W 21.0N 89.1W 22.6N 90.8W
LBAR 18.0N 85.5W 19.7N 87.0W 21.9N 88.8W 24.3N 90.6W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 27KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070924 1200 070925 1200 070926 1200 070927 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.5N 92.3W 24.5N 94.4W 24.4N 96.3W 23.6N 97.8W
BAMD 25.1N 91.9W 27.4N 93.7W 27.4N 94.1W 25.5N 94.4W
BAMM 23.7N 92.2W 25.0N 94.0W 24.7N 95.4W 23.4N 96.5W
LBAR 26.4N 92.2W 31.5N 93.6W 35.6N 90.6W 36.0N 85.3W
SHIP 53KTS 59KTS 62KTS 64KTS
DSHP 44KTS 50KTS 53KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 85.5W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 84.2W DIRM12 = 314DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 82.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[Opal storm]

Looks like the bam brothers have the ridge building back in and pushing it SW.

[ronjon]

The BAMs are obviously showing a strong ridge pushing in from the NW that stall the low pressure and push it slowly SW. The GFS did not show this setup so we'll have to see. The CMC did, but brought the system into NE TX befoere pushing it back to the SE. Probably the slower it moves, the better chance to stay in the GOM the next 5 days.

[Portastorm]

12z GFS running and initializes the low at 1010mb:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib//gfs/12/gfs_ten000000_l.shtml

[Portastorm]

at 24 hrs, emerging off the northwestern tip of the Yucatan, still weak low:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_024l.gif

[Portastorm]

At 36 hrs, in west central Gulf as a weak low:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_036l.gif

[jhamps10]

54 hours:
golden traingle/SW louisana:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

[Portastorm]

Yeah but there appears to be multiple low centers with a moisture stream coming up from the Caribbean. Almost appears like it will end up being nothing more than a trough of low pressure.

[Portastorm]

66 hrs, landfalling near the upper Texas coast ... a good rainer for SW Louisiana:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_066l.gif

ok ... someone else will have to p/u if the GFS shows anything else. Today is my eldest son's birthday and if I don't get off this computer soon ... I'll be securing my sleeping quarters on the couch tonight!

[SETXweatherwatcher]

But none of us needs any more rain....TX or LA

For those of you that don't know - Port Neches is smack dab in the middle of the Golden Triangle 1/2 way between Port Arthur and Beaumont...just an FYI...

[vaffie]

The latest GFS model run is 12 hours faster than the previous one. Early Tuesday morning landfall now.

The previous 00Z model run had it making landfall at about midday Tuesday.

At it's current velocity (9 knots, 315 degrees), it would make landfall on Wednesday morning, so the GFS is calling for some acceleration.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC

The Canadian model does a loop with 94L in the Western Gulf.

[vaffie]

This is the first time that the Canadian has shown it. It's track is interesting--it seems to be predicated on a much weaker front than the GFS is showing. Like the GFS it has landfall in 66-72 hours, but slightly to the right--closer to Beaumont/Lake Charles. I think it's much less likely than the GFS, but it does create the possibility that should the front be weaker than the GFS is showing or faster to leave the area that 94L could slow down on approaching the coast--it would thus be similar to the atmospheric pattern that Humberto experienced and might even lead to rapid intensification just before landfall.

[Sambucol]

Is this invest forecast to be a tropical storm, hurricane, or none of the above?

[vaffie]

Is this invest forecast to be a tropical storm, hurricane, or none of the above?

we don't know yet. the GFS model doesn't predict intensity. the HWRF and GFDL have not initialized it yet--they're good for intensity. The DSHIPS model has it as a 50 knot storm near the Texas coastline--but it's incredibly unreliable for fast developing storms--if this one were ever to become such a thing. And until it's gotten back over the water in the Gulf the shear forecast is iffy at best. For instance, the below links from Intellicast show a strong upper level high directly over the system from 36 hours to 72 hours--so it might be intensifying rapidly on Monday and into Tuesday. Personally, I think that by Sunday afternoon, it will have been over water again for 12 hours or so, the GFDL and HWRF models will have it well initialized, and the shear forecast will be much better--at that point, I will have a good idea about what people may have to prepare for. It's not going to have that much time over the water, but nevertheless under ideal atmospheric conditions, it will still have enough time to become very strong. We will see.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurric ... nds48.aspx
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurric ... nds72.aspx

[vaffie]

Surprise.

GFDL takes it into Brownsville on Tuesday evening.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[HouTXmetro]

I'll continue to monitor but this will probably be a rain maker at best...

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 221836
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1836 UTC SAT SEP 22 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20070922 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070922 1800 070923 0600 070923 1800 070924 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 86.3W 19.9N 88.3W 21.4N 90.1W 22.5N 91.6W
BAMD 18.5N 86.3W 20.0N 88.0W 21.6N 89.8W 23.2N 91.5W
BAMM 18.5N 86.3W 19.9N 88.1W 21.2N 89.9W 22.3N 91.5W
LBAR 18.5N 86.3W 19.9N 87.8W 21.6N 89.5W 23.5N 91.4W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 30KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070924 1800 070925 1800 070926 1800 070927 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.3N 92.9W 24.0N 95.1W 23.8N 96.8W 23.1N 98.4W
BAMD 24.5N 92.9W 25.4N 95.0W 24.8N 96.2W 23.6N 97.8W
BAMM 23.2N 93.0W 23.6N 95.3W 23.1N 97.2W 22.0N 99.3W
LBAR 25.4N 93.0W 28.3N 95.1W 30.4N 94.9W 30.1N 91.6W
SHIP 51KTS 60KTS 66KTS 72KTS
DSHP 43KTS 52KTS 58KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 86.3W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 17.4N LONM12 = 84.9W DIRM12 = 317DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 16.1N LONM24 = 83.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[HouTXmetro]

I'f Im reading this correct is that (GFS) 66 knots at landfall in Freeport?