Well Organized Low Pressure SSW of Cape Verde Islands

#61 Postby **RL3AO** » Sat Sep 22, 2007 4:44 pm

Just waiting for the NRL to add 96L.

jhamps10 · #62 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Sep 22, 2007 4:45 pm

Tropics_Dude83 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
njweather wrote:wow, that was fast...

When was the last time something that far out was given a TWO TD warning?

Helene last year?

Yes, actually was just reading the Helene thread yesterday! The NHC was already mentioning it well it was still over Africa (halfway on and halfway off)!

So, I read just above that the global models have this moving generally westward for 5 days? So this is not a fish?

I think it won't be a fish, but who knows.
waiting on a QS to actually show it, then I expect to see an invest.

#63 Postby **RL3AO** » Sat Sep 22, 2007 4:48 pm

jhamps10 · #64 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Sep 22, 2007 4:51 pm

RL3AO wrote:WOW!

is this a new QS?

#65 Postby **RL3AO** » Sat Sep 22, 2007 4:52 pm

jhamps10 wrote:

is this a new QS?

Yeah.

jhamps10 · #66 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Sep 22, 2007 4:57 pm

ok, folks, we need a invest here soon on this one.

Cyclenall · #67 Postby **Cyclenall** » Sat Sep 22, 2007 4:59 pm

Frist % chance of this becoming a:

Invest: 89%
Tropical Depression: 65%
Tropical Storm: Unknown

This is not an offical product or forecast and is just my guessing with %'s.

punkyg · #68 Postby **punkyg** » Sat Sep 22, 2007 4:59 pm

I just got on and i have to say this wave has held on to its convection quite well today and also i'm surprised that they tagged the low in the north atlantic 95L and not this wave.

HUC · #69 Postby **HUC** » Sat Sep 22, 2007 5:00 pm

Wouah,ouch....

jhamps10 · #70 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Sep 22, 2007 5:01 pm

can we have a recon flight from africa??

#71 Postby **RL3AO** » Sat Sep 22, 2007 5:03 pm

jhamps10 wrote:can we have a recon flight from africa??

Do the Portuguese have any C-130s on the Azores? They can fly into both systems.

Cyclenall · #72 Postby **Cyclenall** » Sat Sep 22, 2007 5:06 pm

I haven't seen a TWO from the NHC like that in a long while. That is one to remember for this season! :double:

I wish we did have recon from Africa or from some of the islands. That would be cool.

#73 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 22, 2007 5:10 pm

It looks better as time goes by.Invest 96L tonight or tommorow morning.

#74 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 22, 2007 5:13 pm

18Z GFS at H+108

Moves due west to a position east of the lesser antilles in 5 days

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

#75 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Sep 22, 2007 5:13 pm

This came out of nowhere. Has any recent system been classified as a TD or TS before it can even become an Invest?

#76 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 22, 2007 5:14 pm

It came off Africa last night and has been evolving for the last 18 hours or so..

Gustywind · #77 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Sep 22, 2007 5:15 pm

HUC wrote:What a two this evening!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Amazing....next will be very busy if this trend continues...seems that we will see a TD before Monday at this cadence..... :roll:

Website · #78 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 22, 2007 5:20 pm

Vortex wrote:18Z GFS at H+108

Moves due west to a position east of the lesser antilles in 5 days

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

Look at that ridge off the East Coast!

:double:

A long-tracker threatening the U.S. in October? That'd be weird.

#79 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 22, 2007 5:25 pm

GFS H+138

Slows down just east of the islands and trends wnw/nw into a weakness..This will likely fill(18z synoptics) and ridging should build back in given it a shot to head w/wnw for the next 2-3 days towards the bahamas...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

punkyg · #80 Postby **punkyg** » Sat Sep 22, 2007 5:26 pm

Hey guys i was watching tropical update on news13 and she said that this wave is getting better organized of course we know that, but also she talked about a nontropical low to the north of this area. i'm wondering do we have to watch it too.

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