Well Organized Low Pressure SSW of Cape Verde Islands

[cycloneye]

Full disk at 00:00 UTC



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You can see in this full disk image more close the low pressure and the convection.

One word (Impressive)

[RL3AO]

The center is near 8N unless QS is off by two degrees.

[Ptarmigan]

I see Invest 96L with this one. Since, it has plenty of warm water ahead, it has a chance to develop, more so than 94L.

[Ptarmigan]

H+384

Over N/central Gulf

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

That's two weeks from now. Anything could happen.

[Ptarmigan]

Watch out San Ciriaco hurricane, someone is coming for your ACE record!

I think the San Ciriaco Hurricane was a Category 5 at some point in its life.

[O Town]

Wow I am impressed at how well this is looking tonight.
CMC is the only one at this point that seems to develop this into something significant. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007092212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[cycloneye]

[Derek Ortt]

it may develop, but it will likely take a couple of days to do so

However, given its latitude, recurvature is by no means certain. Storms at these latitudes often have a hard time clearing Barbados, much less Anguilla

[punkyg]

I wonder what wxman57 has to say about how this wave looks.

[GeneratorPower]

Ivan became a TD at 9.7N 27.6W. This disturbance is already at 27W, but likely about 3 deg south of Ivan. Should the system become a TD tomorrow, as the TWO indicates it may, it would be farther south than Ivan.

Recurvature is not assured.

[GeneratorPower]

Ivan formed about September 1, 2004. This would be a full three (3) weeks later in the season.

[hurricanetrack]

This one looks for real. Finally, something decent to track in the coming days that does not have to "work its way down to the surface".

[Derek Ortt]

This is forming around when Joyce formed

Joyced never made it north of Barbados

[HURAKAN]

This is forming around when Joyce formed

Joyced never made it north of Barbados

Joyce formed farther to the north than where this one is developing.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND CONTINUES TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE LOW EMERGES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT
850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING
A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BUT THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

[RL3AO]

[Vortex]

This is a classic Cape verde storm in the making....


http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls

[Sanibel]

Cape Verde continues to surprise. If this one survives the negative conditions ahead it should form.

[cycloneye]

What are they waiting to put the invest tag? At the rate this is organizing,it may be a TD before they tag it.

[Gustywind]

Time will tell with the path... a lot of things can happen but....intensity is the major interest i tkink, there's plenty of time for that but something beetween Grenada and Antigua seems correct ...should it verifies .....the cone is too wide to speculate let's see what will really happen...but no doubts given the sat pic presentation and other factors ...warme ssts moisture in abundance right now, shear on the decrease ....it's highly possible to have a TD before 40w 90% in my humble opinion tkanks....see you soon