Tropical Storm JERRY- Discussion & Images

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Derek Ortt

#21 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 22, 2007 6:43 pm

this may have a 40-50 percent chance at becoming a TS tomorrow
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Re:

#22 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 22, 2007 6:47 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:this may have a 40-50 percent chance at becoming a TS tomorrow


If it does, I get a free lunch. And I owe you a lunch, Derek.
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Re: Invest 95L: Northwest Atlantic: Discussion & Images

#23 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Sep 22, 2007 6:48 pm

I think 95L has a better chance to develop than 94L.
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Re: Invest 95L: Northwest Atlantic: Discussion & Images

#24 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Sep 22, 2007 6:48 pm

wxman57 wrote:Have to watch those occluded lows out in the middle of nowhere. They can be a problem. I do need one more named fully-tropical storm in September to win my lunch bet with my boss about 5 named tropical systems in September.

I think there's another one up in the Arctic circle that looks interesting, too. :lol:


Hey! I am a ptarmigan and I live in the Arctic. :lol:
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Re: Invest 95L: Northwest Atlantic: Discussion & Images

#25 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 22, 2007 6:56 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:I think 95L has a better chance to develop than 94L.


Much better chance. All it needs to do is acquire (sub)tropical characteristics, as it already has a well-defined closed circulation. It might be (S)TD11 very soon...
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#26 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 22, 2007 6:58 pm

Image
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#27 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 22, 2007 6:59 pm

Image
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Re:

#28 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 22, 2007 7:04 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image


Forget (S)TD11, this would be Jerry immediately with those vectors...
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#29 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 22, 2007 7:17 pm

TWD 805:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW LOCATED 825 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES
NEAR 36N44W IS INCREASING ITS CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
THUS LOOKING MORE TROPICAL. THE LOW IS PRESENTLY DRIFTING NE.
THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS MOSTLY W AND N OF THE CENTER FROM 35N-38N BETWEEN
46W-49W...AND FROM 37N-39N BETWEEN 44W-46W.
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Re: Invest 95L: Northwest Atlantic: Discussion & Images

#30 Postby dwsqos2 » Sat Sep 22, 2007 7:44 pm

22/2345 UTC 36.2N 46.4W ST2.5/2.5 95L -- Atlantic Ocean
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#31 Postby Cyclone1 » Sat Sep 22, 2007 8:09 pm

Looking dramatically more impressive than it did even a few hours ago. I could see an upgrade tonight or tomorrow.
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Re: Invest 95L: Northwest Atlantic: Discussion & Images

#32 Postby RL3AO » Sat Sep 22, 2007 8:10 pm

Image
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Re: Invest 95L: Northwest Atlantic: Discussion & Images

#33 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Sep 22, 2007 8:12 pm

"IF" my option carried any weight at all, this would be getting upgraded at 11pm est. There is no way this is not a tropical cyclone.
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#34 Postby RL3AO » Sat Sep 22, 2007 8:13 pm

How is this not tropical or subtropical?

Image
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Re:

#35 Postby Cyclone1 » Sat Sep 22, 2007 8:15 pm

RL3AO wrote:How is this not tropical or subtropical?



No one said it's not. The NHC will most likely upgrade this at one point or another. Either way, the TCR best track will extend the track back to at least now.
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Re: Re:

#36 Postby RL3AO » Sat Sep 22, 2007 8:16 pm

Cyclone1 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:How is this not tropical or subtropical?



No one said it's not.


SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT
825 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED.
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Re: Re:

#37 Postby Cyclone1 » Sat Sep 22, 2007 8:19 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Cyclone1 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:How is this not tropical or subtropical?



No one said it's not.


SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT
825 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED.


Well... uh... you see uh... with the uh..... text delay... and.............. *runs away*

Well, that is old right? It could've become tropical since then. It could've been tropical then. Or maybe it's not even kinda tropical, I honestly have no clue.
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#38 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 22, 2007 8:22 pm

All the images:

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image
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#39 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 22, 2007 8:24 pm

Image

95LINVEST.30kts-1007mb-362N-463W
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#40 Postby RL3AO » Sat Sep 22, 2007 8:27 pm

30kts? Someone better email that quickscat pass to the NHC.
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