Tropical Storm JERRY- Discussion & Images

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

More like 45 knots and strengthing. It would not suprize me if this got up to 55 knots by tomarrow afternoon.

[HURAKAN]

FLOATER 1:



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

[CrazyC83]

Looks like a tropical storm to me...I think this will be Jerry soon...

[Brent]

10:30pm TWO:

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT
850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING
A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BUT THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

[RL3AO]

I guess this works.

[jaxfladude]

75% OF BEING A "FISH STORM"!!!
25% CHANCE OF HITTING GREENLAND OR EUROPE....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

"could" be a forming a eye, for one the 85h a few of them from 3-4 hours ago shown a curved banding. This could already be 45-50 knots now. Also satellite shows this quickly becoming organized and wrap.

[CrazyC83]

Jerry by 5 am probably, if not a special advisory.

[CrazyC83]

"could" be a forming a eye, for one the 85h a few of them from 3-4 hours ago shown a curved banding. This could already be 45-50 knots now. Also satellite shows this quickly becoming organized and wrap.

I agree, I think we have a storm with about 45 knots right now.

[RL3AO]

They won't issue a special advisory...not near land. Maybe an STDS.

[CrazyC83]

They won't issue a special advisory...not near land. Maybe an STDS.

They can and have issued special advisories to initiate far-flung storms in the past...I know Zeta was one...

[RL3AO]

They won't issue a special advisory...not near land. Maybe an STDS.

They can and have issued special advisories to initiate far-flung storms in the past...I know Zeta was one...

I guess they have with the past two EPac depressions so I withdraw my statement.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It lossed its eye, but I'm sure as the tiger at the zoo getting out in killing a man that this is a tropical storm now. Very likely to be upgraded in post season, this makes the unnamed system of last years seem weak. I don't like the banding thing that is forming on the northern side.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Jerry might come from this if the spin and convection continues

JERRRRY!!! JERRY!!! JERRRY!!! Ooops Sorry I thought this was
Jerry Springer.

[MGC]

Yes, Jerry likely by tomorrow.....MGC

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL changed header to NONAME.So we will have the first advisory for this system at 5 AM EDT.Tropical or Subtropical is what is left to know.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wind data shows 35-40 knots. This looks way stronger then a depression. So I'm thinking they will upgrade to tropical storm. I've been suprized before.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

23/0600 UTC 36.1N 46.3W ST2.5/2.5 95L


The wind field is fairly tight. In subtropical systems the wind field should be spread out over a large area? So this could not be subtropical. In still 2.5=35 knots.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is becoming less organized and looking more like a subtropical storm. No longer does the convection cover the center of this.

[KWT]

This will be upgraded to a storm straight away, probably subtropical based on what it currently looks like though it may be upped to tropical at the end of the season.
As others have said these systems tend to be ones to watch this time of year as the upper temps drop away and the you get more instablity for your sea surface temps!