INVEST 97L: Near Puerto Rico :Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

873
WHXX01 KWBC 230807
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0807 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972007) 20070923 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070923 0600 070923 1800 070924 0600 070924 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 53.3W 12.2N 55.6W 13.3N 58.0W 14.8N 60.0W
BAMD 11.3N 53.3W 12.0N 55.1W 12.7N 56.9W 13.5N 58.6W
BAMM 11.3N 53.3W 11.9N 55.5W 12.6N 57.6W 13.7N 59.6W
LBAR 11.3N 53.3W 12.0N 54.8W 12.8N 56.6W 14.1N 58.6W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070925 0600 070926 0600 070927 0600 070928 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.2N 61.9W 18.3N 65.1W 19.4N 69.5W 20.3N 74.0W
BAMD 14.3N 60.4W 15.4N 64.0W 15.6N 67.6W 15.7N 71.6W
BAMM 14.9N 61.6W 16.6N 65.2W 17.3N 69.3W 18.0N 74.0W
LBAR 15.2N 60.5W 16.9N 64.3W 17.6N 68.9W 17.2N 73.2W
SHIP 46KTS 58KTS 65KTS 70KTS
DSHP 46KTS 58KTS 65KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 53.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 51.6W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 9.9N LONM24 = 49.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Brent]

OK... 4 areas is enough. Thanks!

[KWT]

Hahaha, I thought this might be 97L soon!
Will be interesting to watch this one as it is also fairly far south and the bam models do suggest a Caribbean track which at this time of year needs to be watched, as I said on the other thread its at this time of year where the threat from such systems ramp up for Florida.

The key question is though has it got a circulation at lower levels?

[Coredesat]

[caneman]

This is looking good. Anything down the road to adversely affect it? Little bit concerning to be getting CV systems this late in the game. West Florida will be very much at risk with these late bloomers.

[HURAKAN]

452
ABNT20 KNHC 230929
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB/RHOME

[HURAKAN]

FLOATER 2: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html



BECOMING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED. "KAREN" IF STD 11 BECOMES "JERRY."

[cycloneye]

For us who live in the Caribbean,97L is the most concern now as is much more closer than 96L.Being so close,later today I can expect some watches for some of the islands.

[Nimbus]

All the models have this between 15N and 20N near 75W.

The upper low north of it is close enough to help ventilate the outflow if it develops quickly enough. Luis may be right about the watches although it isn't moving very fast west.

Some of the Texas folks are already celebrating their end of season party because the troughs often start dropping down into the gulf this time of year.

Since 97L missed the first ULL it has at least several days to track WNW through the caribbean. My luck at forecasting has been terrible this year but since the models have it near Jamaica it looks like it could sneak under the east coast trough that has been so prevalent. That would make it a threat to the gulf coast (east of Texas naturally).

[Chacor]

[Gustywind]

For us who live in the Caribbean,97L is the most concern now as is much more closer than 96L.Being so close,later today I can expect some watches for some of the islands.

Absolutely Cycloneye, the tropics are heating up...and the first plots are very close to my island ( should it verifies....)especially in the south tip near Huc's location, something to watch very carefuly if this trend continues we will see alerts in the next couple of hours maybe tonight...
The system is looking good...convection on the increase...chances to have a TD before 60W are higher right now...i'm monitoring this systeme carefully

[punkyg]

Wow finally they gave the CV wave the invest tag, but i wasn't expection this one to get this until later this evening. you carribean folk get ready if things start poppin with this system. ooooh i hope it comes to florida so i can use my weather radio.

[Gustywind]

Yeah punky crucial hours for this system and my island... alerts may be required if this system continues to pop quickly , but tommorow the forecasters are talking about a high risk of rains showers with thunderstorms and something to watch!!!
Latest from Meteo France 7AM
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 NM EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 51W-54W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF 10N TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 52W-59W. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT APPROACHES THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

something to watch for all carib residents in the couple of hours..

[Chacor]

AL, 97, 2007092312, , BEST, 0, 114N, 550W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Still no TC.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This one looks like a No Go IMO...One behind is right on its heels..

[perk]

All the models have this between 15N and 20N near 75W.

The upper low north of it is close enough to help ventilate the outflow if it develops quickly enough. Luis may be right about the watches although it isn't moving very fast west.

Some of the Texas folks are already celebrating their end of season party because the troughs often start dropping down into the gulf this time of year.

Since 97L missed the first ULL it has at least several days to track WNW through the caribbean. My luck at forecasting has been terrible this year but since the models have it near Jamaica it looks like it could sneak under the east coast trough that has been so prevalent. That would make it a threat to the gulf coast (east of Texas naturally).

Nimbus you could'nt more right about some of our Texas posters claiming our season is over for Texas. The same ones do it every year. Just for the record i'm not one of them.

[Thunder44]

This one looks like a No Go IMO...One behind is right on its heels..

I don't think the two systems will have much impact on each other. From looking a visible imagery over 97L, there appears to be a broad llc spinning westward, ahead of the main area of convection, which has been waning the last few hours. There may also be a MLC spnning behind it as well. There may some westerly shear over the system prohibiting further developement right.

[Ed Mahmoud]

All the models have this between 15N and 20N near 75W.

The upper low north of it is close enough to help ventilate the outflow if it develops quickly enough. Luis may be right about the watches although it isn't moving very fast west.

Some of the Texas folks are already celebrating their end of season party because the troughs often start dropping down into the gulf this time of year.

Since 97L missed the first ULL it has at least several days to track WNW through the caribbean. My luck at forecasting has been terrible this year but since the models have it near Jamaica it looks like it could sneak under the east coast trough that has been so prevalent. That would make it a threat to the gulf coast (east of Texas naturally).

Nimbus you could'nt more right about some of our Texas posters claiming our season is over for Texas. The same ones do it every year. Just for the record i'm not one of them.

Just for the record, near miss by Rita w/ hurricane conditions in far East Texas, a minimal Cat 1 Jerry (the sub-tropical storm is getting named in an hour, Jerry, not that has anything to do with anything) in October 1989, and a 1947 borderline Cat 2/Cat 3 in Freeport. So, the fat lady hasn't sung yet, but she is warming up stage right.


If this develops, after the islands, I'd be concerned for an Isidore or Lili track.

[ROCK]

All the models have this between 15N and 20N near 75W.

The upper low north of it is close enough to help ventilate the outflow if it develops quickly enough. Luis may be right about the watches although it isn't moving very fast west.

Some of the Texas folks are already celebrating their end of season party because the troughs often start dropping down into the gulf this time of year.

Since 97L missed the first ULL it has at least several days to track WNW through the caribbean. My luck at forecasting has been terrible this year but since the models have it near Jamaica it looks like it could sneak under the east coast trough that has been so prevalent. That would make it a threat to the gulf coast (east of Texas naturally).

Nimbus you could'nt more right about some of our Texas posters claiming our season is over for Texas. The same ones do it every year. Just for the record i'm not one of them.

Just for the record, near miss by Rita w/ hurricane conditions in far East Texas, a minimal Cat 1 Jerry (the sub-tropical storm is getting named in an hour, Jerry, not that has anything to do with anything) in October 1989, and a 1947 borderline Cat 2/Cat 3 in Freeport. So, the fat lady hasn't sung yet, but she is warming up stage right.


If this develops, after the islands, I'd be concerned for an Isidore or Lili track.

Ed, you should change your name to Climo man...... but seriously what we have seen this year with two cat 5's into SA,MX , a Invest develope into a Cat 1 in 18 hrs........I wouldnt jump on the climo bandwagon just yet.....