Tropical Depression Francisco (WPAC): Discussion & Images

[CrazyC83]

Just as one Invest disappears, another appears. It's a mess though.

[HURAKAN]

Lots of convection:





TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 19N 122E WNW 10 KT.

[Coredesat]

Oddly enough, the wind estimate on NRL is 10 kt.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 19N 119E WSW 10 KT.

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 221200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 221200.
WARNING VALID 231200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 984 HPA
AT 52N 165E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 52N 165E TO 50N 170E 48N 170E.
WARM FRONT FROM 48N 170E TO 46N 173E 44N 175E.
COLD FRONT FROM 48N 170E TO 45N 168E 42N 160E 40N 150E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 40N 150E TO 39N 145E 38N 142E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 55N 171E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 986 HPA
AT 52N 154E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
200 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 18.0N 118.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 142E 42N 144E
47N 160E 53N 160E 60N 166E 60N 180E 43N 180E 38N 160E 38N 150E 37N
142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 18N 141E WSW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 47N 132E ESE 15 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 34N 160E ESE 15 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 37N 179E ESE 10 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[RL3AO]

WTPN21 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.6N 118.8E TO 16.8N 115.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.2N 118.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N
117.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 118.3E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN A BROAD MONSOON DEPRESSION
FEATURE. A 221227Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH
OF THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE DISTURBANCE, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 231500Z.//

NNNN

[RL3AO]

15W.NONAME

[CrazyC83]

Waiting for JTWC confirmation now, since they would be calling it 15W, not the JMA.

[RL3AO]

Advisory should be out in around 45 minutes.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 230300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230300UTC 19.3N 115.7E POOR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 240300UTC 19.3N 112.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[Chacor]

Tropical Storm Francisco.

129
WTPQ20 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0713 FRANCISCO (0713) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 19.3N 114.0E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 160NM NORTHWEST 90NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 20.0N 110.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 251200UTC 20.8N 107.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 261200UTC 21.3N 104.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[CrazyC83]

Not expecting much it looks like.

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[CrazyC83]

Looks pretty good actually.

[Chacor]

Up to 40 kt.

WTPQ20 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0713 FRANCISCO (0713)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 19.5N 113.1E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 241500UTC 19.9N 109.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 251200UTC 20.8N 107.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 261200UTC 21.3N 104.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Chacor]

45 kt now.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like it might be an STS soon if it isn't already.

[Chacor]

819
WTPQ20 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0713 FRANCISCO (0713)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 19.8N 109.4E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 20.0N 105.5E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Nearing second landfall.

[Chacor]

Downgraded.

WTPQ20 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0713 FRANCISCO (0713)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 20N 108E
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA =