INVEST 93C (CPAC): S. of Hawaii: Discussion & Images

[Chacor]

ACPN50 PHFO 240800
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST SUN SEP 23 2007

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS LOCATED 450
MILES SOUTH OF HILO. THE CIRCULATION HAS SOME LIMITED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

$$

MORRISON

It looks really nice (forgive the pixellations, probably due to eclipse issues):



WV imagery shows no major issues with dry air.

[Chacor]

Latest GOES WEST rainbow (eclipse starts 7:45UTC or so)

[WmE]

If it can seperate from the ITCZ it might have a shot.

[Chacor]

To steal it from RL3AO,

[PhillyWX]

This doesn't look too bad. Wouldn't be surprised if it developed on the JTWC side of the Date Line.

[Chacor]

[CrazyC83]

One note after this formed: this becomes (I believe) the first time this year there was an Atlantic system (at least an Invest on NRL), an EPAC, CPAC and WPAC system and something in the Indian Ocean all at the same time (although it just missed the Northern Hemisphere superfecta with both Arab and Bengal with 93B recently dissipated).

[HURAKAN]

976
WHXX01 KMIA 241901
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1901 UTC MON SEP 24 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP932007) 20070924 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070924 1800 070925 0600 070925 1800 070926 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 158.8W 13.5N 161.0W 14.3N 162.6W 15.2N 164.2W
BAMD 12.8N 158.8W 13.1N 160.7W 13.6N 162.1W 14.1N 162.9W
BAMM 12.8N 158.8W 13.1N 160.8W 13.7N 162.3W 14.4N 163.5W
LBAR 12.8N 158.8W 13.0N 160.2W 13.5N 161.3W 14.1N 162.1W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 33KTS 41KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 33KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070926 1800 070927 1800 070928 1800 070929 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 165.6W 16.6N 168.3W 17.2N 171.2W 18.2N 174.6W
BAMD 14.8N 163.3W 16.9N 162.9W 19.1N 161.7W 21.5N 159.3W
BAMM 15.0N 164.4W 16.1N 165.6W 16.7N 166.9W 17.5N 168.8W
LBAR 15.2N 162.5W 16.5N 164.3W 17.1N 165.1W 19.1N 166.5W
SHIP 48KTS 54KTS 54KTS 56KTS
DSHP 48KTS 54KTS 54KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 158.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 157.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 155.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 75NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Chacor]

771
ACPN50 PHFO 250800
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST MON SEP 24 2007

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A BAND OF DISTURBED WEATHER PERSISTS ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW.

$$
CRAIG

[Chacor]

Looking really nice:

[HURAKAN]

pretty good!!!

[Chacor]

ACPN50 PHFO 251400
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE SEP 25 2007

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PERSISTS ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH OF
KAUAI. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW.

$$
CRAIG

[Chacor]

Gone from NRL. No more mention in CPac TWO.