INVEST 97L: Near Puerto Rico :Discussions & Images

[wxman57]

I don't see anything looking "better" in the last few hours. Just a tropical wave with limited convection. Winds are relatively light in its vicinity. Maybe in another 2-3 days it might have a shot of becoming a TD. More likely than not it won't develop.

[cycloneye]

The Latest in closeup view.

[Starburst]

Its coming into the Caribbean a little further south than the models were showing. Good news for PR, Bad news for Gulf coast.

And what makes you "assume" that 97L is going to be a GOM storm?

Now do you see why I was mildly annoyed when some S2K posters from TX automatically assume that any disturbance moving through the Caribbean automatically means a U.S. Gulf Coast hit!

Now if you would have some evidence behind your statement then I would be much less annoyed.

It's too early to speculate U.S. landfall regions, especially when 97L has not even made it past the Windward Islands yet!

Speaking of annoyed... I do not believe Nimbus is from TX, and he did not say GOM storm he said bad news for the Gulf Coast. Not sure why you feel the need to lump sum all Texans into this category. I should add though if this does happen to form I am sure at some point he will be correct as the Gulf coast is a huge area and I am sure some effects would be felt some place within the area.
Definition: The Gulf Coast region of the United States comprises the coasts of states which border the Gulf of Mexico. The states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida are known as the Gulf States. All Gulf States are located in the Southern region of the United States.

[boca]

I think Nimbus is just making an observation, I wouldn't be so quick to jump. High pressure will be over the Eastern US for the next 5 to 6 days. Most likely this would continue heading towards the GOM if it does develop.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Gustywind]

Convection on the increase .........

[hiflyer]

Guess this weekend not a good time to lay a new laminate floor down here in SoFla huh?

Looking at the vapor shows that the north jog should happen after it clears the islands and the concern of San Juan NWS is not difficult to see...they are already sitting in a stream from Aruba coming north to them now. I am just not sold on SoFla more than 3 days out right now looking at all the models....Seeing some fair consistency with what they are showing over the CONUS now which is why I have doubts.

Current Lake Okeechobee water level:
9.737 ft.


Approx. 4 ft. below its historical average for this time of year.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg pop corn east and ene of barbados right now

[gerrit]

I don't see anything looking "better" in the last few hours. Just a tropical wave with limited convection. Winds are relatively light in its vicinity. Maybe in another 2-3 days it might have a shot of becoming a TD. More likely than not it won't develop.

Thanks wxman57!
It's always good to read your professional analysis in between the amateur stuff and -removed-.

[MWatkins]

This may not be looking "better"...however...I personally tend to look for signs from the Hurricane Center as to whether or not to take systems seriously.

When they line up 6 hourly fixes (with the possibilility of 3 hour fixes) and start ramping up P3 flights...that's a pretty good sign that they are concerned with development:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... OUS42.KNHC

Sure this had to be done a day ahread of time, there is lots of recon budget left and it's better to cancel a low-level invest than not have one scheduled...but they sure planning to utilize a lot of resources...

MW

[Derek Ortt]

P3 flights for this system were not tasked by NHC, but by EMC for more HWRF development

[MWatkins]

P3 flights for thsi system were not tasked by NHC, but by EMC for more HWRF development

Oh, that's good news. No reason to be concerned about this system if the 12 hour p3 tasking they are lining up is for HWRF development. Whew that's great to hear. Guess I jumped the gun.

Works for me. Have Blue Man Group tickets this weekend anyway.

MW

EDITED TO ADD THE FOLLOWING DISCLAIMER:

This is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. This is my own personal opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

The Latest in a closeup view.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Shear again Luis...Easily seen here

[hurricanetrack]

I sense a great deal of hurricane anxiety out there. With such a lack-luster season (Dean and Felix, yes, I know) amid the calls for many more hurricanes than we have seen, it is getting old to have so much potential and so little actually happen. I suppose 97L will just be a continuation of the season that never really was. I bet the folks at the UKMET office are lining up their "we told you so" again this year- after all, they and NC State called 2006 very well. Wonder how they do it? What are we lowly Americans not seeing? At least all of these flights can take place without fear of seeing a hurricane roll in to some poor town and wipe it off the map. So there is a lot of good, obviously, in the absence of hurricanes.

[curtadams]

Sometimes, Quickscat is *amazing*. Four areas of interest in the Atlantic - and it missed *every one*. http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/oce ... atl_13.png

[cycloneye]

The Latest Closeup view.



Umm,something is going on just NW of Barbados.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Latest 10 am

[Sanibel]

The obvious question is what does this do in the Caribbean?

[Blown Away]

At a minimum there is more convection compared to 6+ hours ago.