INVEST 97L: Near Puerto Rico :Discussions & Images

[Sanibel]

Like Ingrid, this one has a weak low-level.

[HURAKAN]

Jeff Masters 301 PM EDT:

A tropical wave (97L) is just north of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave has developed a closed circulation centered over the southern Lesser Antilles Islands, as seen on the 9:10 am EDT pass from the ASCAT satellite. This is confirmed by wind observations from Barbados this afternoon, where the winds have turned to westerly and increased to 20 mph. The latest Satellite imagery shows a marked increase in heavy thunderstorm activity in the past few hours, and a tropical depression could form by Tuesday. The wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear. The shear is forecast to slowly rise to 20 knots by Thursday, which may slow intensification. The future evolution of the storm depends on how close it comes to the mountainous island of Hispaniola. Most of the models predict 97L will pass over the island on Wednesday or Thursday, which would greatly disrupt the storm. None of the models predict 97L will grow stronger than a 55 mph tropical storm for the next five days. There is a band of very high wind shear predicted to lie just north of Hispaniola all of this week, and 97L could well encounter this band of high wind shear Thursday, which would weaken the storm. In any case, this system represents a threat to the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and residents may experience tropical storm conditions as early as Wednesday afternoon. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 97L Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. This afternoon's flight was canceled.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200709

[drezee]

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[punkyg]

Is that a closed low i see?
i know this is old.

[MWatkins]

Sure looks like a closed low to me...

I was being a bit sarcastic earlier about the west winds in St Lucia and Barbados. Those aren't transient observations.

Looks like there is already some westerly shear affecting the system and the upper forecast calls for increased shear along the way. The 18Z SHIPS was run on the BAMM track...which projects 20 knots of shear by the end of the forecast period...but that is offset by high heat content in the western Caribbean. If this system tracks north of the Islands chances of becoming a significant system go down considerably...

MW

[Ed Mahmoud]

It looks like a big delicious Gulf shrimp, so big it might better be referred to as 'prawn', stuffed with a cheese filled jalapeño, and grilled on the BBQ.


Not good news for Dominicans and Haitians, but I have a feeling Hispaniola just may save Florida from a hurricane late week/weekend.

[cycloneye]

Sure looks like a closed low to me...

I was being a bit sarcastic earlier about the west winds in St Lucia and Barbados. Those aren't transient observations.

Looks like there is already some westerly shear affecting the system and the upper forecast calls for increased shear along the way. The 18Z SHIPS was run on the BAMM track...which projects 20 knots of shear by the end of the forecast period...but that is offset by high heat content in the western Caribbean. If this system tracks north of the Islands chances of becoming a significant system go down considerably...

MW

Thanks Mike for doing a more complete analysis as you always do very good for us who are located in the NE Caribbean. I knew that the earlier thoughts were sarcasm.

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED:

[Gustywind]

Absolutely no doubts....
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg 3pm meteo france close to td status on sat pic for tonight if this trends continues...

[Weatherboy1]

Just FYI, HPC maps track a low that must be 97L moving WNW/W in the general vicinity of Hispanola at day 5 and then tracking over Cuba at day 6 (Sunday). Here's the six-day map link ...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif

[HURAKAN]

continues to look organized.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just FYI, HPC maps track a low that must be 97L moving WNW/W in the general vicinity of Hispanola at day 5 and then tracking over Cuba at day 6 (Sunday). Here's the six-day map link ...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif

Cuba seems better prepared (one of the advantages of a dictatorship- fast response to evacuation orders) for a tropical. cyclone than Haiti or D. Republic, but, IIRC, the Western part of Cuba is not fatally mountainous to cyclones the way Hispaniola often is.

I'm thinking ahead to possible Florida or EC threats.

[gatorcane]

Just FYI, HPC maps track a low that must be 97L moving WNW/W in the general vicinity of Hispanola at day 5 and then tracking over Cuba at day 6 (Sunday). Here's the six-day map link ...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif

Cuba seems better prepared (one of the advantages of a dictatorship- fast response to evacuation orders) for a tropical. cyclone than Haiti or D. Republic, but, IIRC, the Western part of Cuba is not fatally mountainous to cyclones the way Hispaniola often is.

I'm thinking ahead to possible Florida or EC threats.

Looking at the shear tendency maps, unless it is totally flawed there is a huge swath of shear ahead of this invest. If it were not for that shear I would be concerned about Florida down the road.

[HURAKAN]

Lets hope it can bring some rain, nothing more.

[canegrl04]

Just FYI, HPC maps track a low that must be 97L moving WNW/W in the general vicinity of Hispanola at day 5 and then tracking over Cuba at day 6 (Sunday). Here's the six-day map link ...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif

Cuba seems better prepared (one of the advantages of a dictatorship- fast response to evacuation orders) for a tropical. cyclone than Haiti or D. Republic, but, IIRC, the Western part of Cuba is not fatally mountainous to cyclones the way Hispaniola often is.

I'm thinking ahead to possible Florida or EC threats.

Speaking of Hispanola,if it weren't for that country,the US might have been hit with many more monster hurricanes.Like Beulah in 1967.She was a 160mph monster before being ripped over Hispanola Feel bad for the folks who live there,also

[Derek Ortt]

Beulah 1967 did strike the USA as a major

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[canegrl04]

Beulah 1967 did strike the USA as a major

Oops,I guess I read the report about it wrong.An archived analysis said she got ripped apart over Hispanola.Did she come back after going over that Island?