Tropical Depression LORENZO: Global & hurricane Models

[Windsurfer_NYC]

18Z models are running a bit late, no?

[crownweather]

18Z track models are out: http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_94.gif

Overall track models look way too fast in terms of track (Onshore in barely 48 hrs). Out of all of the models, the CLIPER model (Go figure) looks to have the best handle on speed. I do like today's global models and their forecasts of a very slow moving storm in a weak steering environment this week. Thoughts??

[Extremeweatherguy]

what is up with only the BAMS running on this? Why are there not any global models yet on that model image? Usually the BAMS are horrible for storms in the western GOM..and that is why I really cannot wait to see some better (well-initialized..in terms of position) models run before trying to make up my mind on the track.

[HouTXmetro]

IMO this is bound for MX up tp South TX... I'm awaiting the models too.

[sealbach]

i thought the same thing about the CLIPER...it's never right, but maybe it's on to something???

[HouTXmetro]

i thought the same thing about the CLIPER...it's never right, but maybe it's on to something???

I doubt it, that High looks to be building in NE of the system already.

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/wx

[Brent]

Looks like Mexico. Again.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like Mexico. Again.

Figured this, really no way it can head north with the high pressure. Next.

[wxmann_91]

Just looked at some models and the upper air environment is pretty darn impressive in about 3-4 days. Question is land interaction.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 250136
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0136 UTC TUE SEP 25 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20070925 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070925 0000 070925 1200 070926 0000 070926 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.5N 93.9W 22.6N 95.2W 22.7N 96.3W 22.5N 97.3W
BAMD 22.5N 93.9W 22.6N 94.9W 22.6N 95.8W 22.4N 96.8W
BAMM 22.5N 93.9W 22.5N 95.1W 22.4N 96.3W 22.2N 97.4W
LBAR 22.5N 93.9W 22.7N 95.4W 23.1N 96.9W 23.7N 98.1W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 30KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 30KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070927 0000 070928 0000 070929 0000 070930 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.3N 98.1W 21.6N 100.3W 21.5N 103.6W 22.6N 106.9W
BAMD 22.2N 98.0W 22.2N 100.6W 22.9N 103.2W 24.2N 105.6W
BAMM 22.0N 98.6W 21.6N 101.4W 21.9N 105.0W 23.5N 108.6W
LBAR 23.9N 99.1W 24.1N 100.4W 24.4N 101.7W 25.1N 102.9W
SHIP 46KTS 64KTS 74KTS 75KTS
DSHP 32KTS 27KTS 27KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.5N LONCUR = 93.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 22.2N LONM12 = 92.8W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 21.9N LONM24 = 91.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[ROCK]

BAMMS say go west young INVEST.....

that is of course if the shear didnt kill it this evening.....

[vaffie]

Interesting to look at the GFS Ensemble tracks. Unless something major changes, all ensemble tracks keep it in the Bay of Campeche through Friday.

[vaffie]

Interesting to look at the GFS Ensemble tracks. Unless something major changes, all ensemble tracks keep it in the Bay of Campeche through Friday.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... k_gfs3.png

[Extremeweatherguy]

Interesting to look at the GFS Ensemble tracks. Unless something major changes, all ensemble tracks keep it in the Bay of Campeche through Friday.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... k_gfs3.png

Which is bad news. The longer something sits down there, then the more likely it will be to eventually be drawn north at some point (given the time of year)...and that is exactly the reason why I am not sold on Mexico being the definite target right now. The worst case scenario, IMO, is if this sits down there through the upcoming weekend and is then drawn north or east by any kind of possible weakness next week. That would give this system plenty of time to strengthen before possibly becoming an issue for the USA.

[wxmann_91]

There is a large ridge forecast to remain over Old Mexico for at least the next 6 days. Don't think it will get picked up.

[HouTXmetro]

So that means it can't go North or West... just South

[wxmann_91]

So that means it can't go North or West... just South

It can go west or south, depends on how strong the ridge is.

But given how far south it already is right now, it will take a big weakness to drive it north, which just isn't in the cards right now.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

94L should probably landfall in Mexico based on the ridge.
Though some of its moisture could affect a larger area.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest GFS ensembles: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_gfs2.png

The ALL keep this system in the BOC/SW GOM through Sunday morning.

If that link doesn't work, then you can get to them through here = http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/