Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Anthonyl]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

As per the NHC surface analysis map over the next 72 hours, it seems to have our potential storm heading towards the Lesser Antilles.This varifies in general comparison to what the global models seem to be indicationg. Of note also is the potential for another system to get going behind our invest given favourable upper level conditions.

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 21:45 UTC

[canegrl04]

Anybody know any fish songs we can all sing for this one? If this coming TD gets fav. conditions thru out its journey,it will be one helluva 'cane

[wxman57]

Anybody know any fish songs we can all sing for this one? If this coming TD gets fav. conditions thru out its journey,it will be one helluva 'cane

Though the models don't forecast any east Caribbean hit, I'm not ready to commit to "fish" yet. It looks a little strange that the models are predicting the northerly turn while they're also predicting the ridge will be fairly strong to the north. I think the turn could come a bit later. Probably will still miss the eastern Caribbean, but may turn between 55W-60W vs. at 50W.

[cycloneye]

However 57,if it turns around 55-60w,being large,the outer side may well may affect the Leewards.To me it will be a close call.

[CrazyC83]

Anybody know any fish songs we can all sing for this one? If this coming TD gets fav. conditions thru out its journey,it will be one helluva 'cane

Correct, I think there is a good chance this could become a Category 4 or 5 hurricane.

[Jimsot]

As long as it turns!

[Typhoon_Willie]

Based on it's size one would think it would have to turn rather quickly!

[cheezyWXguy]

since the high is supposed to remain relatively strong for most of its trek across the central atlantic, when it turns north could it possibly bend back westward similar to frances?

[cycloneye]

The Latest

[CrazyC83]

That looks like a pretty solid storm there...that might be a tropical storm right now...

[hurricanetrack]

So far, none of the hurricanes this year have turned away from the United States on a path east of north. Why would this potential one be any different? I guess all of that strong ridging that was in place for Dean and Felix is just going to be gone? We'll see.

[punkyg]

It looked cute earlier when it had no shape, but now its a sexy 9 shape


ain't i funny.

[HurricaneRobert]

The Latest

That's huge.

[fci]

So far, none of the hurricanes this year have turned away from the United States on a path east of north. Why would this potential one be any different? I guess all of that strong ridging that was in place for Dean and Felix is just going to be gone? We'll see.

I think it may turn north due to this storm being later in the season and also have early it may strenghten.

I haven't seen anyone predict that this would follow the almost due west track that Dean and Felix traversed.

[CrazyC83]

The Latest

That's huge.

It is kinda reminiscent of another female K storm, just on the other side of the basin.

[cycloneye]

The whole area covers 6 latituds and 7 longituds Imagine how big this is.Do the math and see how many square miles is that.

[CrazyC83]

I'm wondering if there is a website with ship observations available if there are any ships near this system?

[CrazyC83]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/oce ... atl_22.png

Closed circulation?

[Cyclone1]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/ocean_image21/qscat_barbs_atl_22.png

Closed circulation?

Hard to tell with that pass, but I wouldn't doubt it.