Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[Terry]

dumb question --- with the ULL that is suppose to form over western Cuba tomorrow and move over FLA interact in any way with 94L?

[Coredesat]

Convection is about gone on the IR4 and NRL IR channels.

It should be noted that NRL has this listed erroneously as "94L.NONAME".

[N2FSU]

From the Tallahassee NWS Discussion:

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY. THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES
AND MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

Would this not affect the steering for 94L?

[WindRunner]

Convection is about gone on the IR4 and NRL IR channels.

It should be noted that NRL has this listed erroneously as "94L.NONAME".

It's not necessarily erroneous as of yet . . . no 00z update has been made to ATCF for 94L.

[Thunder44]

Convection is about gone on the IR4 and NRL IR channels.

It should be noted that NRL has this listed erroneously as "94L.NONAME".

It's not necessarily erroneous as of yet . . . no 00z update has been made to ATCF for 94L.

If it were actually upgraded it would say 13L.NONAME. I don't think NHC will upgrade this system this evening.

[WindRunner]

Convection is about gone on the IR4 and NRL IR channels.

It should be noted that NRL has this listed erroneously as "94L.NONAME".

It's not necessarily erroneous as of yet . . . no 00z update has been made to ATCF for 94L.

If it were actually upgraded it would say 13L.NONAME. I don't think NHC will upgrade this system this evening.

I don't think they will either, but they haven't made an official decision either way yet per ATCF . . . of course, that might be because they're preoccupied with 12L and haven't gotten around to making a decision, but we won't know until the 2007092500 entry appears.

[bigGbear]

We do have a circulation to the NE, but it appears to be mid to UL and could be the result of shear. The LLC/Low looks exposed and unorganized.

The circulation to the northeast is very evident on the IR2. Very close to
the position about 6-8 hours ago.

[WindRunner]

Updated 3 minutes ago . . .

AL, 94, 2007092500, , BEST, 0, 225N, 939W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Pressure down a mb, but no upgrade . . . as expected.

[CrazyC83]

Probably will be 5 am or 11 am when this becomes TD13.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would like to see some convection try to form around that LLC. To strengthen the LLC some. I don't expect a hurricane out of this.

[wxman57]

I wouldn't stay up late or get up early expecting any upgrade. Earliest likely would be 10am CDT. More likely tomorrow afternoon. NHC won't upgrade a low without deep convection overhead, and shear won't really drop until tomorrow during the day. Oh, watch that new burst of convection coming off the Yucatan heading for the LLC.

[wxman57]

I would like to see some convection try to form around that LLC. To strengthen the LLC some. I don't expect a hurricane out of this.

Patience. I think this will be a hurricane once the shear drops off. As I said earlier, could reach hurricane strength on Thursday.

[CrazyC83]

Still showing 94L.NONAME, a sign they may be considering an upgrade? (The 94 needs to change to 13 first)

[Ed Mahmoud]

I would like to see some convection try to form around that LLC. To strengthen the LLC some. I don't expect a hurricane out of this.

Patience. I think this will be a hurricane once the shear drops off. As I said earlier, could reach hurricane strength on Thursday.

Just wanted an official/professionally trained opinion. Are the odds of this affecting the US Gulf Coast West of New Orleans and North of 27ºN in any way very slim, or absolutely none?

Edited to spell 'slim' correctly.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

wxman57 or anyone else, a couple of us have posted about a front coming through TX,LA,MS thurs. Would this not turn the steering currents out of the s/sw and possibly send this up to the northern gom states. From our local afd's sounds like the front will make it into the gulf. I know this type of scenario has happened many times before, wondering why everyone is so confident on his going to mexico.?

[TheEuropean]

Still showing 94L.NONAME, a sign they may be considering an upgrade? (The 94 needs to change to 13 first)

Now the site is showing again 94L.Invest. I expect no update soon.

[wxman57]

wxman57 or anyone else, a couple of us have posted about a front coming through TX,LA,MS thurs. Would this not turn the steering currents out of the s/sw and possibly send this up to the northern gom states. From our local afd's sounds like the front will make it into the gulf. I know this type of scenario has happened many times before, wondering why everyone is so confident on his going to mexico.?

It's not really a front coming through, but the passage of an upper level trof and a building ridge over Texas Thu-Sat. High pressure building eastward across TX would mean winds across the northern Gulf in the mid levels would be out of the north and northeast. This would make it hard for a storm in the SW Gulf to track anywhere but southwest or west.

Going to bed. I expect no upgrade in the Gulf until tomorrow during the day. NHC may wait for recon.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Appreciate it. Makes sense with that analogy. Thanks.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest globals show this thing pretty much stalling out...as expected.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_94.gif

I am still not sold on this going to Mexico in the long run though. As we have seen numerous times this year, the first idea on track is usually not the right one. We will see if history repeats itself this time too, but I think the entire Gulf Coast needs to keep a close eye on this. If the high doesn't build in as expected, or if some minor detail changes, then the whole currently expected scenario could be altered. Hopefully we will have a much better idea by midweek.

[Stratosphere747]

Battle Royle II - Texas vs. Mexico - Lets get it on!!