Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Seems that there will be a weakness in the ridge that allows this storm
to turn NW. For right now I am thinking fish, but it needs to be watched
just in case it pulls some sort of surprise- not that I'm expecting that though.

[southerngale]

12L.KAREN on NRL

[Chacor]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 AM AST TUE SEP 25 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM KAREN...NO
IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND AREAS...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1565 MILES...2520 KM...EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...10.4 N...38.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chacor]

327
WTNT32 KNHC 250831
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 AM AST TUE SEP 25 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM KAREN...NO
IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND AREAS...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1565 MILES...2520 KM...EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...10.4 N...38.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chacor]

644
WTNT42 KNHC 250843
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS
CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE...WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER A LARGE AREA SURROUNDING THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AGAIN 35 KT...SO THE DEPRESSION IS
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KAREN.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/14. KAREN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT
36-48 HR. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...WHICH WOULD TURN KAREN NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE
GFDL...HWRF...ANND ECMWF SHOWING A NORTHWARD MOTION BETWEEN
50W-53W...WHILE THE UKMET AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO WEST OF 56W BY 120 HR. SINCE THERE IS
OFTEN A TENDENCY FOR THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO HAVE A NORTHWARD BIAS
IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...AND THEN TO
THE LEFT OF CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THEREAFTER.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST...IF ANYTHING...HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC.
KAREN IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP VERY CLOSE TO THE STORM
TRACK...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MENTIONED ABOVE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE FIRST TROUGH
TO CAUSE BOTH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND SHEAR OVER KAREN...
AND IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE THE
STORM TO INTENSIFY OR WEAKEN. THE SECOND TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SHEAR WITHOUT STRONG DIFLUENCE...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE WEAKENING. THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS ALL FORECAST
KAREN TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 60-72 HR. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR KAREN
TO PEAK JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING DUE
TO SHEAR FROM THE SECOND TROUGH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0900Z 10.4N 38.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 10.8N 40.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 11.3N 43.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 11.8N 45.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 12.9N 47.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 16.0N 51.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 19.0N 53.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 22.0N 54.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

Shear may keep this weak for a while.
tropical storm in 5 days- agreeing with the nhc

Lol T storm today in the TWO

[cycloneye]

Lets see how many days Karen will last,to then increase the ace of the 2007 season.She will be a hurricane,but lets see down the road,how the bumps will affect the intensity.

[HURAKAN]

083107


092507


LETS TALK ABOUT "CATCHING UP!"

[punkyg]

Good morning guys
Whats the latest T numbers for Karen/K Dog.

[Windtalker2]

Seems that there will be a weakness in the ridge that allows this storm
to turn NW. For right now I am thinking fish, but it needs to be watched
just in case it pulls some sort of surprise- not that I'm expecting that though.

If she stays a weak TS and does not make it to hurricane status, can she skirt under the weakness and continue WNW to the Northern Islands?

[cycloneye]

Good morning guys
Whats the latest T numbers for Karen/K Dog.

These were the SSD T Numbers from the overnight hours.

25/0545 UTC 10.2N 36.8W T2.5/2.5 12L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Thunder44]

HURAKAN, we are only at our 11th named storm, with Karen this morning.

[HURAKAN]

HURAKAN, we are only at our 11th named storm, with Karen this morning.

The list counts everything (TD, STD, STS, TS, H). Therefore we're at 12 and the EPAC is at 13.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 251042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
KAREN IN THE EAST ATLANTIC...AND IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND
AREAS. AT 25/0900 UTC T.S. KAREN WAS NEAR 10.4N 38.0W OR ABOUT
1360 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...MOVING W-NW AT 14
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. KAREN IS A LARGE SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM
6N-15N BETWEEN 33W-43W. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS KAREN CONTINUES ON A WNW
TRACK S OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE.

[punkyg]

Good morning guys
Whats the latest T numbers for Karen/K Dog.

These were the SSD T Numbers from the overnight hours.

25/0545 UTC 10.2N 36.8W T2.5/2.5 12L -- Atlantic Ocean

Do you know when the new ones will come out?

[cycloneye]

After 8 AM.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 251121
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE 12L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 25

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.4 37.6 285./14.0
6 10.5 38.5 275./ 8.6
12 10.9 39.9 286./14.5
18 11.2 41.2 283./13.3
24 11.6 42.9 281./16.4
30 11.9 44.5 283./16.8
36 12.3 46.2 282./16.5
42 12.8 47.1 299./10.4
48 13.4 48.3 297./13.5
54 14.2 49.6 300./14.1
60 15.0 50.4 316./11.2
66 15.5 50.8 325./ 6.7
72 16.2 51.2 324./ 8.0
78 17.0 51.7 331./ 9.4
84 18.0 52.0 342./10.1
90 18.9 52.3 340./ 9.6
96 19.8 52.7 337./ 9.7
102 20.7 53.1 336./ 9.3
108 21.6 53.4 341./10.4
114 22.5 53.7 343./ 8.5
120 23.2 54.1 331./ 8.2
126 24.0 54.2 350./ 8.3

[punkyg]

When was the last storm that was this big as a TS ?
Karen is huge like one of the members said wow its almost as big as the state of texas.

[Category 5]

When was the last storm that was this big as a TS ?
Karen is huge like one of the members said wow its almost as big as the state of texas.

Florence had TS winds 400+ miles out last year. Almost 10 times more then Karen, however Karen JUST became a TS so lets give it time. The system itself is quite large though.

And with Karens formation, we've beaten last years named storm total.