INVEST 97L: Near Puerto Rico :Discussions & Images

['CaneFreak]

97L reminds me a lot of Ingrid to tell you the truth. I have lost all hope in this little invest. The shear is not letting up and has not let up the past 24 hours. In fact, its only INCREASED!!! NEXT!!!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[cycloneye]

INVEST 97L is alive! Check the 97L models thread.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
Convection popping again.

['CaneFreak]

Until I stop seeing cirrus clouds zipping from southwest to northeast, I am going to say that this system's chances of developing are between 5 and 10 % (being generous).

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This reminds me "slightly" of Jeanne 2004. I remember it looked about the same as it was moving through the northern islands. But this is not 2004 not even close.

[Weatherfreak000]

This was known to probably happen....let's not worry about it.

15% of development probably. Same old thing with every invest.

[Blown Away]

This set up is just way to similar to many other systems that fizzled. To many things going against 97L. But, I like to track them anyway.

[Chacor]

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
HAS ALSO DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT ABOUT 15
MPH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SQUALLY WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY...AND INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Another burst of convection flaring up near 14.5N 61.5W.....

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=ui4&domain=cta&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&banner=mkwc&satplat=goes12&overlay=off

[Thunder44]

Looking at the infrared satellite after the eclispe looks like shear has taken it's toll on this system:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO NORTHWESTWARD AND
BRING SQUALLY WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TODAY...AND TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY.
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[wxman57]

Too much shear = no development today, maybe never. Still something to keep an eye on.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 251042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS NEAR 15N62W ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND BRING SQUALLY WEATHER TO
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...AND TO THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
METEO-FRANCE RADAR DATA FROM MARTINIQUE DEPICT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 58W-65W.
$$
MW

[ronjon]

Bones warming up his speech..about ready to announce the fate of another convective blob. Next...

[deltadog03]

I still think this is what the euro develops and brings across south florida and into the gom....Its hard to tell were that low is coming from

[Gustywind]

Lastest from NRL 1015 UTC 16.0 N 61.3w 1010 hpa 25kts
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... rovap/dmsp

[Gustywind]

Convection trying to refires steadily this morning in Guadeloupe given to the latest sat pic and the forecast. Light winds and very light showers in my location, but i've got some lightning at the moment and thunder is roaring nicely ...thus the yellow alert have been maintained but Meteo France has lowered very slighty the risk of precipitation and big thunderstorms today , whereas we continue to monitor this system because the convection is refiring at the moment this convection...
Latest 8 AM
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Latest conditions in Guadeloupe:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TFFR.html

[bvigal]

This reminds me "slightly" of Jeanne 2004. I remember it looked about the same as it was moving through the northern islands. But this is not 2004 not even close.

Hi Matt! I got a pucker reaction to mention of Jeanne! Happy this morning to see it still so disorganized, but does seem to be firing up last couple of hours. You guys further downstream should keep an eye on this!

Jeanne 2004 - The cyclone strengthened to a tropical storm on 14 September while it moved slowly over the Leeward Islands. Continuing west-northwestward, its circulation moved slowly over the Virgin Islands and the center moved inland over southeastern Puerto Rico on 15 September when maximum sustained surface winds reached 60 kt. The center moved across Puerto Rico, then over the Mona Passage and inland at the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic. Jeanne was a hurricane with 70-kt winds while over the Mona Passage and during the Dominican Republic landfall, but then weakened over the rough terrain of Hispaniola.

TD11 east of Leewards Sept 13
TS Jeanne crossing VI Sept 14

[HURAKAN]

IF YOU'RE A DISTURBANCE AND WANT TO DEVELOP, AVOID THIS TRACK!!!

[Sanibel]

Yeah, I was saying this one was shouting out it would dissipate. This is the 2007 poof spot in this area. There's a weird pattern this year somewhat similar to last year where whatever doesn't power through the Caribbean doesn't get supported very well by the Atlantic environment. Just because the models make a chart for it doesn't mean it will develop.