Disturbed Weather over Florida Straits

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gatorcane
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Disturbed Weather over Florida Straits

#1 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 24, 2007 1:08 pm

Looks suspicious to me.....

some sligh rotation and some deep convection...although we should wait for persistence.

Image
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Re: Disturbed Weather over Florida Straits

#2 Postby flwxwatcher » Mon Sep 24, 2007 1:27 pm

Gator , I posted this in another thread but the CMC spins something up in 72 Hours West of the Keys. Like I said its the CMC so take it for what its worth. :D

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: Disturbed Weather over Florida Straits

#3 Postby Jinkers » Mon Sep 24, 2007 1:50 pm

Things are sure firing up, it looks interesting to say the least... :double:
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Re: Disturbed Weather over Florida Straits

#4 Postby rainydaze » Mon Sep 24, 2007 6:27 pm

From the Miami NWS 3:00pm discussion

THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN SET UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS FOR
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL
TROUGH TO DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE FL STRAITS...EVENTUALLY TO
THE SURFACE. THIS BROAD TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF
THE WET CONDITIONS.

FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE...HOW
MUCH SO DEPENDS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH/RIDGE. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE GFS PLACES THE ATLANTIC RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
STRAITS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT RUNS BEFORE HAD IT FURTHER NORTH.
WILL LET MIDSHIFT ASSESS LATER RUNS AND MAKE ANY CHANGES AS
APPROPRIATE.
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Re: Disturbed Weather over Florida Straits

#5 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 25, 2007 4:33 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 25, 2007 5:26 am

Image
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Re: Disturbed Weather over Florida Straits

#7 Postby caneman » Tue Sep 25, 2007 5:32 am

nothing happening here in the short term with that ULL rolling West over top of it.
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Re: Disturbed Weather over Florida Straits

#8 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Sep 25, 2007 6:27 am

Weekend nor' easter for Fla (according to JB). Hoping it comes this way, boy do we need rain.
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Re: Disturbed Weather over Florida Straits

#9 Postby boca » Tue Sep 25, 2007 7:13 am

I would think this area should be an invest considering 97L looks like crap and its still an invest. I see rotation south of the Keys.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
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Re: Disturbed Weather over Florida Straits

#10 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 25, 2007 7:28 am

Several models (GFS, CMC, NOGAPs) develop low pressure in the SE GOM and move it slowly NE over the state in the next 48-72 hrs. Other than the CMC, they keep the low pressure weak. I think there is some potential for development here and probably an investigation tag will be placed on this system either today or tomorrow.
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Re: Disturbed Weather over Florida Straits

#11 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 25, 2007 7:46 am

This area looks rather interesting. There is some kind of twist south of the FL Keys. Lots of convection is persisting.
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Re: Disturbed Weather over Florida Straits

#12 Postby boca » Tue Sep 25, 2007 7:48 am

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#13 Postby O Town » Tue Sep 25, 2007 7:55 am

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#14 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Sep 25, 2007 8:21 am

That's an impressive blob, but for now
I think mostly a rain event.

Good news is that the models show it bringing
heavy needed rains over lake ockeechobee.

Let's hope the lake fills up before the dry season
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#15 Postby hurricanetrack » Tue Sep 25, 2007 8:31 am

Boy, there is a sign that the season is on its last leg- a Nor'easter! Awesome.
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#16 Postby eaglegirl » Tue Sep 25, 2007 8:46 am

FLUS42 KTBW 250933
HWOTBW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
533 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-251500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
533 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO REDUCE TO GENERALLY 3 TO 5 MILES
WITH SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS 1 TO 2 MILES. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW
DOWN...USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND MAINTAIN A SAFE FOLLOWING
DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING.

..THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DEEP MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THIS
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...DEADLY
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

COLSON
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Re: Disturbed Weather over Florida Straits

#17 Postby alienstorm » Tue Sep 25, 2007 9:11 am

In looking at the visible loop it looks like there is some king of development occuring off the north central coast of Cuba. This will need to be monitor closely for development in the next day or so.
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#18 Postby eaglegirl » Tue Sep 25, 2007 9:26 am

Just a little fyi... this area was briefly mentioned today in the SERT (State Emergency Response Team) Daily Situation Report:


Tropical Weather Outlook
The tropical wave yesterday in the Central Atlantic intensified into a tropical depression
last night and has now become Tropical Storm Karen. The center of Karen is about 1550
miles east of the Windward Islands, or about 2950 miles southeast of Miami. Maximum
sustained winds are near 40mph and the storm is racing west-northwest near 16mph.
The current forecast track from NHC brings Karen on a gradual west-northwest track
before turning northwest on Thursday while still well east of the Lesser Antilles. Karen
has no immediate threat to land and it looks like it may be steered out into the open
Atlantic this weekend.
Tropical Storm Jerry has dissipated over the northern Atlantic and did not threaten any
land masses. An area of low pressure over the southwest Gulf of Mexico still remains
disorganized, but is still being watched for development. It is expected to drift slowly and
erratically over the next few days as steering currents remain weak. Conditions may
become more favorable for development and Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system this afternoon. Still, computer models suggest this system will not
pose a threat to Florida and should move towards the Mexican coast in a few days. In the
Atlantic, a tropical wave just west of the Lesser Antilles in the far eastern Caribbean has
become less organized and atmospheric condition are becoming less favorable for
development. Shower activity over the Bahamas and South Florida is in association with
an upper level disturbance.
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Re: Disturbed Weather over Florida Straits

#19 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 25, 2007 9:29 am

Saw that and came in to comment on it right away. Looks like a possible spin developing. I'm not sure. Nothing obvious on radar.
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 25, 2007 9:40 am

This area (Bahamas-Florida Strait) is prime for development. You just need better environmental conditions. It will be interesting what future interactions this area has with 97L. According to the lastest computer model tracks, 97L could move through this area in a few days.
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