Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[Sanibel]

Could be illusion but the system appears to have a SE drift right now. So the story is it survives the negative conditions and blooms like Humberto.

[HURAKAN]

330
NOUS42 KNHC 251430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 25 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-123

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73
A. 26/1800Z
B. AFXXX 03JJA CYCLONE
C. 25/1515Z
D. 21.5N 95.0W
E. 25/1700Z TO 25/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 74
A. 27/0600Z
B. AFXXX 04JJA CYCLONE
C. 26/0215Z
D. 21.5N 95.0W
E. 26/0500Z TO 26/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. TROPICAL STORM KAREN
FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 43
A. 27/0000Z
B. NOAA3 0112A KAREN
C. 26/2000Z
D. 12.5N 46.1W
E. 26/2300Z TO 27/0200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 42
A. 27/1200Z
B. NOAA2 0212A KAREN
C. 27/0800Z
D. 14.0N 48.0W
E. 27/0500Z TO 27/0800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: TWO MORE P-3 MISSIONS FOR
KAREN. CONTINUED 12-HRLY FIXES FOR GULF SYSTEM IF IT
DEVELOPS.

4. REMARKS: ALL CARIBBEAN TASKING CANCELLED AT 25/1200Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF

[wxman57]

Just posted this in the models discussion area, but it's applicable here, too:

To give you a good idea where "Lorenzo-to-be" might track, I've created a series of 5 maps in GARP. I plotted the mean 700m-400mb wind flow (barbs and streamlines) valid 7am Fri to 7am Tue. You can see that high pressure remains quite entrenched over Texas-Louisiana and the NW Gulf. This storm is going SW, not north.

Of great interest is what happens on Monday and Tuesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF develop a very strong tropical cyclone in the NW Caribbean. With high pressure building over the eastern U.S., it's a perfect setup for a hurricane in the NW Caribbean/Gulf early next week, and I don't mean Lorenzo. Steering currents would suggest a northerly track toward the central or northeast U.S. Gulf coast, maybe with a NNE track at landfall, but it's a LONG way off to be certain of that.

Oh, here's a shot of what the 00Z European is seeing in the NW Gulf Monday evening:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/European.gif

7am Fri:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Lorenzo4.gif

7am Sat:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Lorenzo5.gif

7am Sun:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Lorenzo6.gif

7am Mon:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Lorenzo7.gif

7am Tue:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Lorenzo8.gif

[HURAKAN]

latest:

[Sanibel]

Wha??? Wxman's chart develops a system right over us on Sanibel and drives it WSW and into the tip of Yucatan. I'll believe that when I see it.

[Derek Ortt]

I would suspect that that system would be 97L that the Euro is developing

(Canadian develops something else... which I assume is the convection SE of Miami)

[NONAME]

latest:

That burst might set this thing off. Looking good shows the shear is weaking now.

[HURAKAN]

Convection continues to increase over the LLC.

[Derek Ortt]

outflow is becoming better established this mroning as the shear drops

if this does not upwell... I'd give this a 75% chance of a hurricane

[NONAME]

When will recon start flying towards it in EST.

[HURAKAN]

When will recon start flying towards it in EST.

1515Z or 11:15 AM EDT.

[NONAME]

That would be in 10minutes right So derek do you think they will find a Tropical depression then.

[Wx_Warrior]

The latest from Jeff Masters:

Satellite imagery and this morning's QuikSCAT pass show a vigorous surface circulation continues in the Gulf of Mexico, about 280 miles south-southeast of Brownsville, Texas. This disturbance (94L) has one clump of heavy thunderstorms on the northern side of the circulation, and QuikSCAT saw winds up to 25 mph at 8:14 am this morning. Wind shear has fallen to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and is expected to remain 10 knots or below for the next three days. This should allow 94L to develop into a tropical depression later today or on Wednesday. Steering currents are weak in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, and 94L will move slowly and erratically. This storm is primarily a threat to Mexico, due to a very strong ridge of high pressure expected to remain in place over the Gulf of Mexico the rest of the week. Several of the models foresee an eventual landfall to the west or south between Tampico and Campeche late this week. A Hurricane Hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 94L this afternoon.

[Derek Ortt]

94L has been a TD since yesterday. It has just not been classified as such

[HURAKAN]

854
ABNT20 KNHC 251516
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED ABOUT 1515 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 180 MILES EAST OF
TAMPICO MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ST. KITTS IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE LOW SHOULD MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE BRITISH AND US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WESTERN CUBA
AND THE WESTERN BAHAMAS IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACES PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AT THIS TIME AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Chacor]

979
URNT15 KNHC 251521
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 01 20070925
151400 3025N 08855W 0132 00030 0166 +330 +238 360000 000 999 999 03
151430 3025N 08855W 0132 00030 0166 +328 +238 360000 000 999 999 03
151500 3025N 08855W 0132 00029 0165 +326 +240 360000 000 999 999 03
151530 3025N 08855W 0132 00029 0165 +322 +238 360000 000 999 999 03
151600 3025N 08855W 0132 00029 0165 +320 +238 360000 000 999 999 03
151630 3025N 08855W 0132 00029 0165 +320 +238 360000 000 999 999 03
151700 3025N 08855W 0132 00029 0165 +320 +240 360000 000 999 999 03
151730 3025N 08855W 0132 00029 0165 +322 +240 360000 000 999 999 03
151800 3025N 08855W 0132 00029 0165 +320 +240 360000 000 999 999 03
151830 3025N 08855W 0132 00029 0165 +320 +236 360000 000 999 999 03
151900 3025N 08855W 0132 00028 0164 +320 +238 360000 000 999 999 03
151930 3025N 08855W 0132 00028 0164 +320 +236 360000 000 999 999 03
152000 3025N 08855W 0132 00028 0164 +322 +236 360000 000 999 999 03
152030 3025N 08855W 0132 00025 0161 +310 +238 360000 000 999 999 03
152100 3025N 08855W 0132 00027 0163 +292 +240 360000 000 999 999 03
152130 3025N 08855W 0132 00029 0165 +292 +234 360000 000 999 999 03
152200 3025N 08855W 0132 00029 0166 +260 +230 360000 000 999 999 03
152230 3024N 08855W 0132 00029 0166 +256 +234 360000 000 999 999 03
152300 3024N 08856W 0132 00029 0166 +268 +232 360000 000 999 999 03
152330 3024N 08856W 0132 00029 0166 +278 +230 360000 000 999 999 03
$$

[Derek Ortt]

QUIKSCAT indicates that the winds as of 12Z are close to tropical storm force and that a clear LLC is present.

I'd have initiated advisories at 11 (I know, considering how conservative most here think I am, this has to be a shock to the system to hear me say this)

[wxman57]

94L has been a TD since yesterday. It has just not been classified as such

Yeah, and Humberto was likely a TD 12 hours before its very "rapid development from TD to H". Convection is increasing rapidly near the center now. Well on its way to becoming a TS tonight.

[HURAKAN]

979
URNT15 KNHC 251521
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 01 20070925
151400 3025N 08855W 0132 00030 0166 +330 +238 360000 000 999 999 03
151430 3025N 08855W 0132 00030 0166 +328 +238 360000 000 999 999 03
151500 3025N 08855W 0132 00029 0165 +326 +240 360000 000 999 999 03
151530 3025N 08855W 0132 00029 0165 +322 +238 360000 000 999 999 03
151600 3025N 08855W 0132 00029 0165 +320 +238 360000 000 999 999 03
151630 3025N 08855W 0132 00029 0165 +320 +238 360000 000 999 999 03
151700 3025N 08855W 0132 00029 0165 +320 +240 360000 000 999 999 03
151730 3025N 08855W 0132 00029 0165 +322 +240 360000 000 999 999 03
151800 3025N 08855W 0132 00029 0165 +320 +240 360000 000 999 999 03
151830 3025N 08855W 0132 00029 0165 +320 +236 360000 000 999 999 03
151900 3025N 08855W 0132 00028 0164 +320 +238 360000 000 999 999 03
151930 3025N 08855W 0132 00028 0164 +320 +236 360000 000 999 999 03
152000 3025N 08855W 0132 00028 0164 +322 +236 360000 000 999 999 03
152030 3025N 08855W 0132 00025 0161 +310 +238 360000 000 999 999 03
152100 3025N 08855W 0132 00027 0163 +292 +240 360000 000 999 999 03
152130 3025N 08855W 0132 00029 0165 +292 +234 360000 000 999 999 03
152200 3025N 08855W 0132 00029 0166 +260 +230 360000 000 999 999 03
152230 3024N 08855W 0132 00029 0166 +256 +234 360000 000 999 999 03
152300 3024N 08856W 0132 00029 0166 +268 +232 360000 000 999 999 03
152330 3024N 08856W 0132 00029 0166 +278 +230 360000 000 999 999 03
$$

TD 13 or Lorenzo, that's the question!!! Lets discuss here.

[wxman57]

Here's a McIDAS shot with the center indicated by the red "X". I gave it a 60-70% shot at hurricane strength on my mid morning update. As long as it stays offshore, it should gradually strengthen.