INVEST 97L: Near Puerto Rico :Discussions & Images

[bvigal]

Well some good news. Sat indicates this is about over St. Kitts - just to the south. Been waiting for their 10am airport report to come in, here it is:
==================================================
Station Name : Golden Rocks/Nev
Location : 17.30N 62.68W
Time : 9/25/2007 2:00:00 PM
Wind : ENE (60 degrees) at 8 kt
Pressure : 1013.9 mb
Temperature : 84.2°F
Dew Point : 78.8°F
RH : 84%
Weather :
METAR :
==================================================

In fact pressures are up all over the NE Caribbean, 1013.9 also in Anguilla, Antigua. 1014.9 St. Thomas and Guadeloupe, 1015.2 in BVI and St. Croix.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Today's recon mission has been cancelled...

[bvigal]

Yeah, I was saying this one was shouting out it would dissipate. This is the 2007 poof spot in this area. There's a weird pattern this year somewhat similar to last year where whatever doesn't power through the Caribbean doesn't get supported very well by the Atlantic environment. Just because the models make a chart for it doesn't mean it will develop.

Sanibel, you are right about this being a "poof spot" and I think I can prove why, after comparing several years of observations and collection of reports and satellite shots. But I'm on my way out the door, and it would not be topical, anyway. Will try and get something together to post in general TT forum.

[BigA]

97L looks a lot better on imagery over the past couple of hours. If there's a spin, it looks to be at about 17 N, 62.7 W, and deep red is building right over the top of it. That said, I would place my money on Lord Shear eating this thing.

[Vortex]

Nam 12Z +84

Florida does not wanna see this pattern evolve


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Vortex]

Nam 12Z Loop

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


*Florida or the SE coast

[Sanibel]

That has to be 97L. The High could be weaker than it looks allowing a further north track. Hard to see a sheared-apart weak system becoming the Low in that 5 day graphic. Wxman's long range chart then takes that system over Florida, right over us on Sanibel, and then SW towards the tip of Yuctan.

Hmm.

Furthermore, that Low that goes up the coast out to sea leaves a trailing trough that looks like it would take that system further north. I'm smelling garbage run.

[DESTRUCTION5]

That has to be 97L. The High could be weaker than it looks allowing a further north track. Hard to see a sheared-apart weak system becoming the Low in that 5 day graphic. Wxman's long range chart then takes that system over Florida, right over us on Sanibel, and then SW towards the tip of Yuctan.

Hmm.

I don't think thats the case Sanibel..I think that nasty Low is coming from the Carribean and the L you see over you is another that moves out NE...

[Sanibel]

Look at Wxman's long range charts. It takes that Low SW and into the Yucatan Gulf where it cooks it into a strong storm and sends it north and into the Gulf.

[Vortex]

The fact is this is the best this system has looked yet...

Radar from martinique

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[HURAKAN]

854
ABNT20 KNHC 251516
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED ABOUT 1515 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 180 MILES EAST OF
TAMPICO MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ST. KITTS IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE LOW SHOULD MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE BRITISH AND US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WESTERN CUBA
AND THE WESTERN BAHAMAS IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACES PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AT THIS TIME AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Sanibel]

Ooops!


97L is reconvecting in shear. I take back what I posted about poofing for now. This one could beat my 2007 theory. Humbly watching it for now.

[NONAME]

I would have to say this one is done for atleast today to much against it right now just look at it no organization at all. Just little puffs of convection.

[LarryWx]

Nam 12Z Loop

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

*Florida or the SE coast

With a trough just moving by at around hour 84 and with ridging progged on model consensus to develop quickly in the E US, I doubt any surface low near this NAM's 84 hour location would be able to get swept away from the U.S. Therefore, I agree that this would represent a SE U.S. coastal threat (mainly FL-SC). Regardless of whether or not a surface low is actually already developed at hour 84 as per this NAM run (I fully realize the NAM tends to develop many phantoms just like the CDN), I expect the pattern late this weekend into next week to be conducive to the possibility of something either moving into this area or developing nearby and threatening the SE coast next week.

[gerrit]

[Sanibel]

So this one is moving towards islands AND increasing shear.

[Vortex]

GFS at 12Z

H+42
Something is going to be over or just N of DR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

[Vortex]

H+60
SE Bahamas


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

[DESTRUCTION5]

H+60
SE Bahamas


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

LOL as a shower..

[Vortex]

San Juan Radar Long range

Clearly shows rotation

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... 1&loop=yes