Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[Wx_Warrior]

Thanks...I've gotten pretty good at reading that. Just making the above statement that I didnt see anything major with all the "happenings"...

[WindRunner]

Same here . . . I've got class in a little while, and don't want to get started doing something I can't finished. I might do a little work on the night flight, but I don't have much time until 00z, and this flight should be heading back to base way before then.

[HURAKAN]

575
URNT15 KNHC 251631
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 08 20070925
162400 2724N 09151W 4859 06125 0341 -089 -089 097006 006 999 999 03
162430 2723N 09153W 4852 06126 0331 -085 -089 063004 005 999 999 03
162500 2720N 09153W 4853 06123 0330 -081 -093 045003 004 999 999 03
162530 2718N 09153W 4854 06136 0344 -081 -093 023002 003 999 999 03
162600 2716N 09153W 4854 06138 0347 -081 -089 020005 005 999 999 03
162630 2713N 09153W 4856 06138 0349 -081 -087 058003 004 999 999 03
162700 2711N 09153W 4852 06141 0347 -081 -093 305002 003 999 999 03
162730 2709N 09153W 4854 06140 0348 -081 -091 316004 004 999 999 03
162800 2706N 09153W 4854 06138 0346 -083 -091 331004 004 999 999 03
162830 2704N 09152W 4853 06141 0348 -081 -091 326002 002 999 999 03
162900 2701N 09152W 4854 06137 0345 -077 -095 022001 002 999 999 03
162930 2659N 09152W 4854 06139 0347 -079 -087 032001 002 999 999 03
163000 2657N 09152W 4855 06137 0347 -081 -089 070003 004 999 999 03
163030 2654N 09152W 4854 06130 0339 -079 -089 083004 005 999 999 03
163100 2652N 09152W 4854 06136 0345 -081 -085 313001 002 999 999 03
163130 2649N 09152W 4854 06142 0350 -079 -093 080003 005 999 999 03
163200 2647N 09152W 4854 06143 0352 -075 -097 096005 006 999 999 03
163230 2645N 09152W 4855 06140 0350 -075 -095 090004 005 999 999 03
163300 2642N 09153W 4854 06141 0349 -075 -097 072004 005 999 999 03
163330 2640N 09153W 4854 06140 0349 -075 -099 045004 004 999 999 03
$$

[HURAKAN]

576
UZNT13 KNHC 251632
XXAA 75165 99276 70916 08271 99016 27443 10019 00137 26231 09518
92822 21427 10518 85551 16820 10513 70187 09040 11009 50590 06905
15504 88999 77999
31313 09608 81620
61616 AF305 01JJA INVEST OB 04
62626 SPL 2756N09164W 1628 MBL WND 10020 AEV 00000 DLM WND 11012
014494 WL150 09518 085 =
XXBB 75168 99276 70916 08271 00016 27443 11850 16820 22675 07442
33485 08500
21212 00016 10019 11976 10021 22946 09515 33924 11018 44883 10014
55864 10517 66850 10513 77653 10515 88621 13514 99597 13011 11485
02002
31313 09608 81620
61616 AF305 01JJA INVEST OB 04
62626 SPL 2756N09164W 1628 MBL WND 10020 AEV 00000 DLM WND 11012
014494 WL150 09518 085 =

[Air Force Met]

94L has been a TD since yesterday. It has just not been classified as such

I agree. A TD is a TD...it just isn't "official" yet. The lack of "on-time" naming of TD's is the reason for so many first advisory tropical storms...

[CrazyC83]

I wonder if we will find TD13 (or TS Lorenzo)?

[Wx_Warrior]

System looks trapped to me...What concerns me is next week as the Eastern GOM needs to be alert.

[WindRunner]

I wonder why we seem to have so many issues with plane-to-base data transmission . . .

[Lowpressure]

I wonder if we will find TD13 (or TS Lorenzo)?

I say it is highly dependent on whether the recent large burst of convection persists near the LLC. I say TD on arrival, then minimal TS before departure from the system. I think the wind will support TS, it will be deciding if it is squall induced or actual storm strength. IMO.

[RL3AO]

Could a stronger storm track differently than a weak storm?

[Wx_Warrior]

I would think an eventual SW movement for this system.

[Lowpressure]

Could a stronger storm track differently than a weak storm?

I would almost say the question would be, how long does this sit in the BOC, before it could take a different track? I really do not see strength making a big difference in this scenario. Always have to watch upwelling here too.

[Kennethb]

What goes on in the Bay of Campeche, stays in the Bay of Campeche?

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 251658
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 09 20070925
163400 2637N 09153W 4854 06141 0349 -077 -099 065004 004 999 999 03
163430 2635N 09153W 4855 06138 0348 -077 -097 075004 005 999 999 03
163500 2632N 09154W 4854 06140 0349 -077 -093 071005 006 999 999 03
163530 2630N 09154W 4854 06139 0348 -075 -103 079006 008 999 999 03
163600 2628N 09154W 4854 06139 0348 -075 -097 073004 004 999 999 03
163630 2625N 09154W 4854 06141 0350 -075 -097 083005 006 999 999 03
163700 2623N 09154W 4854 06141 0350 -077 -093 093004 005 999 999 03
163730 2620N 09153W 4854 06139 0348 -075 -097 119006 007 999 999 03
163800 2618N 09153W 4854 06141 0349 -075 -099 101004 004 999 999 03
163830 2616N 09152W 4854 06139 0348 -073 -085 104005 006 999 999 03
163900 2614N 09151W 4851 06147 0351 -077 -105 092003 004 999 999 03
163930 2611N 09151W 4854 06146 0354 -075 -101 067004 004 999 999 03
164000 2609N 09151W 4855 06145 0355 -075 -103 066005 005 999 999 03
164030 2606N 09150W 4853 06147 0354 -075 -103 077005 005 999 999 03
164100 2603N 09150W 4854 06146 0354 -073 -103 072006 006 999 999 03
164130 2601N 09150W 4854 06143 0352 -075 -103 073005 005 999 999 03
164200 2558N 09150W 4854 06141 0350 -073 -103 072005 005 999 999 03
164230 2556N 09150W 4854 06140 0348 -075 -105 062005 005 999 999 03
164300 2554N 09150W 4854 06140 0349 -075 -099 051005 006 999 999 03
164330 2554N 09150W 4854 06140 0349 -075 -099 051005 006 999 999 03
$$

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 251659
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 10 20070925
164400 2554N 09150W 4854 06140 0349 -075 -099 051005 006 999 999 03
164430 2554N 09150W 4854 06140 0349 -075 -099 051005 006 999 999 03
164500 2554N 09150W 4854 06140 0349 -075 -099 051005 006 999 999 03
164530 2554N 09150W 4854 06140 0349 -075 -099 051005 006 999 999 03
164600 2554N 09150W 4854 06140 0349 -075 -099 051005 006 999 999 03
164630 2553N 09150W 4855 06136 0346 -075 -091 064006 007 999 999 03
164700 2553N 09150W 4855 06136 0346 -075 -091 064006 007 999 999 03
164730 2553N 09150W 4855 06136 0346 -075 -091 064006 007 999 999 03
164800 2553N 09150W 4855 06136 0346 -075 -091 064006 007 999 999 03
164830 2553N 09150W 4855 06136 0346 -075 -091 064006 007 999 999 03
164900 2553N 09150W 4855 06136 0346 -075 -091 064006 007 999 999 03
164930 2553N 09150W 4855 06136 0346 -075 -091 064006 007 999 999 03
165000 2518N 09149W 4854 06133 0341 -077 -081 086007 008 999 999 03
165030 2515N 09149W 4854 06133 0342 -075 -093 087007 008 999 999 03
165100 2513N 09149W 4853 06136 0343 -075 -089 084006 007 999 999 03
165130 2511N 09149W 4856 06135 0346 -075 -085 079008 008 999 999 03
165200 2508N 09148W 4853 06131 0338 -079 -085 073010 010 999 999 03
165230 2506N 09148W 4856 06117 0328 -075 -091 085011 013 999 999 03
165300 2503N 09148W 4853 06120 0327 -077 -083 081009 009 999 999 03
165330 2501N 09148W 4854 06116 0325 -075 -089 081008 009 999 999 03
$$

[HURAKAN]

662
URNT15 KNHC 251702
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 11 20070925
165400 2458N 09148W 4854 06116 0325 -075 -101 085007 007 999 999 03
165430 2456N 09148W 4853 06119 0326 -075 -105 083007 007 999 999 03
165500 2454N 09148W 4856 06115 0326 -075 -107 084007 007 999 999 03
165530 2451N 09148W 4854 06116 0325 -075 -105 085006 006 999 999 03
165600 2449N 09148W 4854 06114 0322 -075 -103 083007 008 999 999 03
165630 2446N 09148W 4855 06111 0321 -077 -101 089008 008 999 999 03
165700 2444N 09148W 4853 06128 0335 -079 -105 080008 009 999 999 03
165730 2442N 09148W 4856 06132 0343 -075 -103 076008 008 999 999 03
165800 2439N 09147W 4854 06143 0351 -075 -103 078008 008 999 999 03
165830 2437N 09147W 4854 06158 0367 -075 -105 082008 008 999 999 03
165900 2434N 09147W 4854 06172 0381 -075 -107 083008 008 999 999 03
165930 2432N 09147W 4854 06192 0400 -075 -101 086007 008 999 999 03
170000 2430N 09147W 4852 06221 0427 -079 -101 073008 010 999 999 03
170030 2428N 09149W 4854 06229 0438 -081 -101 077010 011 999 999 03
170100 2426N 09151W 4854 06240 0449 -079 -095 075010 010 999 999 03
170130 2425N 09153W 4863 06174 0396 -073 -097 076010 010 999 999 03
170200 2423N 09155W 4854 06146 0355 -079 -081 071011 011 999 999 03
170230 2422N 09157W 4854 06161 0369 -079 -083 085012 012 999 999 03
170300 2420N 09159W 4854 06161 0370 -075 -075 081011 013 999 999 03
170330 2419N 09200W 4854 06146 0354 -075 -083 097012 012 999 999 03
$$

[Brent]

I remember reading several years ago that storms that get trapped in the BOC need a very strong pull northward to do anything other than go deep into Mexico. It is getting to be that time of year, but I'm not sure any troughs will be strong enough and get close enough to have an affect, assuming it is still trapped down there this weekend.

[WindRunner]

What goes on in the Bay of Campeche, stays in the Bay of Campeche?

Though that was a fairly deep mid-level trough that did that, of course . . . so what Brent said is essentially correct.

[WindRunner]

Plane is decending . . .

[WindRunner]

Plane decending . . .

URNT15 KNHC 251711
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 12 20070925
170400 2417N 09202W 4854 06145 0354 -075 -089 097012 013 999 999 03
170430 2416N 09204W 4854 06153 0362 -075 -081 111012 013 999 999 03
170500 2415N 09205W 4854 06153 0362 -075 -083 115011 012 999 999 03
170530 2413N 09207W 4930 06067 0389 -067 -067 114011 012 999 999 03
170600 2412N 09209W 5070 05820 0349 -057 -057 111012 014 999 999 03
170630 2410N 09211W 5251 05529 0318 -045 -045 084011 012 999 999 03
170700 2409N 09213W 5440 05259 0312 -027 -031 106010 011 999 999 03
170730 2407N 09214W 5632 04993 0168 -013 -013 117008 010 999 999 03
170800 2406N 09216W 5828 04732 0198 -003 -003 099010 011 999 999 03
170830 2405N 09218W 6039 04465 0229 +010 +010 089007 009 999 999 03
170900 2403N 09219W 6282 04164 0247 +032 +014 125008 009 999 999 03
170930 2402N 09221W 6523 03873 0264 +052 +032 117008 008 999 999 03
171000 2400N 09223W 6796 03495 0220 +070 +060 118010 012 999 999 03
171030 2359N 09224W 7102 03064 0147 +088 +088 107012 013 999 999 03
171100 2357N 09226W 7394 02722 0143 +108 +088 090014 014 999 999 03
171130 2356N 09228W 7700 02382 0147 +124 +102 085015 016 999 999 03
171200 2355N 09230W 8009 02050 0152 +140 +120 091014 015 999 999 03
171230 2353N 09231W 8320 01723 0147 +158 +146 098017 017 999 999 03
171300 2352N 09233W 8636 01403 0146 +176 +164 093017 018 999 999 03
171330 2350N 09235W 8956 01095 0153 +194 +174 090015 015 999 999 03
$$