Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#541 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 25, 2007 1:05 pm

URNT15 KNHC 251801
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 17 20070925
175400 2214N 09405W 9819 00251 0102 +250 +236 135014 015 999 999 03
175430 2213N 09406W 9818 00252 0102 +250 +236 134014 015 999 999 03
175500 2211N 09407W 9819 00251 0102 +250 +238 137013 014 999 999 03
175530 2210N 09408W 9818 00253 0103 +246 +246 146013 014 999 999 03
175600 2209N 09408W 9818 00252 0102 +246 +244 143012 013 999 999 03
175630 2207N 09409W 9819 00251 0102 +244 +244 144013 014 999 999 03
175700 2206N 09410W 9818 00252 0102 +244 +244 146013 014 999 999 03
175730 2205N 09412W 9819 00251 0102 +244 +242 151013 013 999 999 03
175800 2204N 09413W 9819 00251 0103 +242 +242 157012 013 999 999 03
175830 2203N 09414W 9818 00251 0102 +240 +240 154012 013 999 999 03
175900 2202N 09415W 9819 00251 0103 +238 +238 159013 013 999 999 03
175930 2201N 09416W 9817 00252 0102 +240 +236 162014 014 999 999 03
180000 2200N 09418W 9818 00251 0102 +240 +236 162014 015 999 999 03
180030 2159N 09419W 9819 00249 0101 +240 +240 160014 015 999 999 03
180100 2159N 09420W 9818 00250 0100 +242 +238 157014 015 999 999 03
180130 2158N 09422W 9819 00249 0101 +240 +240 156015 015 999 999 03
180200 2157N 09423W 9817 00251 0100 +240 +240 149014 014 999 999 03
180230 2156N 09425W 9819 00248 0099 +240 +240 146014 014 999 999 03
180300 2155N 09426W 9819 00248 0099 +240 +240 141014 014 999 999 03
180330 2154N 09427W 9819 00248 0099 +240 +240 146014 014 999 999 03
$$

Now some SSE winds.
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: INVEST 94L: Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#542 Postby jasons2k » Tue Sep 25, 2007 1:09 pm

Jeff Lindner said in his analysis this AM that the trough late this weekend will not dig far enough south to grab it, and for now I agree with this thinking. ATTM there doesn't appear to be anything on the horizon to grab this and make it a threat to anyone other than Mexico.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#543 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 25, 2007 1:15 pm

URNT15 KNHC 251811
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 18 20070925
180400 2153N 09429W 9819 00248 0099 +240 +240 150012 013 999 999 03
180430 2153N 09430W 9818 00249 0099 +240 +240 149012 012 999 999 03
180500 2152N 09431W 9818 00249 0099 +240 +240 149012 013 999 999 03
180530 2151N 09433W 9818 00248 0098 +240 +240 150013 014 999 999 03
180600 2150N 09434W 9819 00247 0098 +240 +240 153013 013 999 999 03
180630 2149N 09436W 9819 00247 0098 +242 +242 163011 012 999 999 03
180700 2148N 09437W 9819 00247 0098 +242 +242 170010 011 999 999 03
180730 2147N 09438W 9819 00247 0098 +244 +244 182008 009 999 999 03
180800 2146N 09440W 9818 00248 0097 +246 +246 193007 008 999 999 03
180830 2146N 09441W 9819 00246 0096 +248 +246 201007 007 999 999 03
180900 2145N 09442W 9818 00246 0095 +248 +248 204007 007 999 999 03
180930 2144N 09443W 9818 00246 0095 +246 +246 221007 007 999 999 03
181000 2143N 09445W 9820 00244 0096 +240 +240 245008 009 999 999 03
181030 2142N 09446W 9815 00248 0095 +244 +244 256007 007 999 999 03
181100 2141N 09447W 9819 00245 0095 +250 +248 266006 007 999 999 03
181130 2140N 09448W 9819 00245 0095 +250 +250 278007 008 999 999 03
181200 2139N 09450W 9819 00245 0095 +250 +246 286008 009 999 999 03
181230 2138N 09451W 9818 00246 0095 +250 +246 290009 009 999 999 03
181300 2137N 09452W 9818 00245 0094 +250 +246 303010 011 999 999 03
181330 2136N 09453W 9819 00244 0094 +250 +244 304012 012 999 999 03
$$

S, SW, W and even NW winds...do we have a closed circulation? North winds are all that are needed now it appears.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#544 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 25, 2007 1:25 pm

URNT15 KNHC 251821
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 19 20070925
181400 2135N 09455W 9818 00245 0094 +250 +248 310011 012 999 999 03
181430 2134N 09456W 9818 00245 0094 +250 +246 316012 014 999 999 03
181500 2133N 09457W 9820 00243 0094 +246 +244 315015 016 999 999 03
181530 2132N 09458W 9815 00248 0096 +242 +242 311017 022 999 999 03
181600 2131N 09459W 9820 00243 0094 +248 +248 296022 022 999 999 03
181630 2130N 09501W 9818 00246 0095 +244 +244 292023 023 999 999 03
181700 2129N 09502W 9819 00245 0096 +238 +238 301022 022 999 999 03
181730 2128N 09503W 9818 00248 0098 +242 +242 300023 023 999 999 03
181800 2127N 09504W 9818 00248 0098 +238 +238 300024 025 999 999 03
181830 2125N 09503W 9818 00249 0099 +246 +238 295024 025 999 999 03
181900 2126N 09501W 9819 00247 0098 +244 +236 284022 024 999 999 03
181930 2126N 09459W 9817 00249 0099 +236 +236 283023 023 999 999 03
182000 2127N 09457W 9819 00246 0097 +242 +242 285021 021 999 999 03
182030 2127N 09456W 9819 00246 0097 +242 +242 279021 021 999 999 03
182100 2128N 09454W 9818 00246 0095 +244 +244 282020 020 999 999 03
182130 2128N 09452W 9818 00246 0095 +244 +244 279018 019 999 999 03
182200 2129N 09450W 9819 00245 0096 +242 +242 275013 014 999 999 03
182230 2129N 09449W 9817 00246 0094 +246 +244 269012 013 999 999 03
182300 2130N 09447W 9818 00246 0095 +244 +244 246011 011 999 999 03
182330 2130N 09445W 9819 00245 0095 +246 +246 248012 012 999 999 03
$$

Still no N winds. FL 25 kt.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#545 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 25, 2007 1:27 pm

there were NW winds

181500 2133N 09457W 9820 00243 0094 +246 +244 315015 016 999 999 03
0 likes   

americanrebel

#546 Postby americanrebel » Tue Sep 25, 2007 1:28 pm

looks like a TD to me
0 likes   

americanrebel

#547 Postby americanrebel » Tue Sep 25, 2007 1:29 pm

The recons look like this is a TD with 25 KT winds.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#548 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 25, 2007 1:35 pm

From the TWD:

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE
FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 180 MILES
EAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1009 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22.5N95W...ALONG A TROUGH THAT RUNS
FROM MEXICO NEAR 19N91W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE LOW CENTER...AND TO 26N96W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 22N
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN
86W AND 96W. A CONTINUALLY-WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS JUST
OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
25N TO 30N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP
OF THE AREA OF THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH.
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

Re:

#549 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Sep 25, 2007 1:37 pm

CrazyC83 wrote: S, SW, W and even NW winds...do we have a closed circulation? North winds are all that are needed now it appears.


Yes...we have a closed circulation. Not sure if you are monitoring the 94L thread or not...but we've had a closed circulation for over a day. I also pointed this out last week when recon was out there: Any time you have a west wind you have a closed circulation in a tropical system. You don't need a north wind. It would be extremly rare to streamline a system that was not closed that had a west wind and no north winds in the tropics. It also doesn't matter how you find that west wind: Buoys, ship reports, sfc obs, recon. If you see a west wind (or even WSW), you have a closed low. However...you really didn't need obs to tell this had a closed low...you can see it on hi-res satellite. Any time you have low level cloud elements (cu) moving eastward...that is a good indication you have west winds at the sfc...especially when the cu field well south of the percieved center is moving eastward.

Didn't mean to interupt the OBS thread...but the question was asked here and not in the discussion thread.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: INVEST 94L: Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#550 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 25, 2007 1:37 pm

25/1745 UTC 22.2N 94.8W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#551 Postby RL3AO » Tue Sep 25, 2007 1:39 pm

Please don't take this as a rip on the NHC, but if this was about 250 miles further north we would waiting for advisory 3 or 4 this evening.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#552 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 25, 2007 1:39 pm

URNT15 KNHC 251831
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 20 20070925
182400 2131N 09444W 9818 00246 0095 +246 +246 246012 012 999 999 03
182430 2131N 09442W 9818 00246 0095 +246 +246 224014 016 999 999 03
182500 2132N 09440W 9818 00246 0095 +246 +246 217017 017 999 999 03
182530 2133N 09439W 9819 00245 0095 +246 +246 217018 019 999 999 03
182600 2133N 09437W 9818 00246 0096 +242 +242 217019 019 999 999 03
182630 2134N 09435W 9819 00245 0096 +242 +242 214018 018 999 999 03
182700 2134N 09434W 9818 00246 0096 +240 +240 213018 019 999 999 03
182730 2135N 09432W 9819 00246 0097 +240 +240 208019 020 999 999 03
182800 2135N 09430W 9818 00247 0097 +240 +240 204019 020 999 999 03
182830 2136N 09429W 9819 00247 0099 +234 +234 205020 021 999 999 03
182900 2136N 09427W 9818 00249 0099 +240 +240 200019 020 999 999 03
182930 2137N 09425W 9819 00248 0099 +240 +240 197018 018 999 999 03
183000 2137N 09424W 9819 00249 0101 +240 +240 191017 017 999 999 03
183030 2138N 09422W 9818 00249 0099 +240 +240 191019 020 999 999 03
183100 2138N 09420W 9820 00248 0101 +240 +240 189019 019 999 999 03
183130 2140N 09420W 9815 00252 0100 +240 +240 178016 018 999 999 03
183200 2141N 09422W 9819 00248 0099 +240 +240 177016 016 999 999 03
183230 2142N 09423W 9819 00248 0099 +240 +240 176017 017 999 999 03
183300 2143N 09425W 9817 00249 0098 +240 +240 175017 017 999 999 03
183330 2143N 09426W 9819 00247 0098 +240 +240 178015 016 999 999 03
$$
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#553 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 25, 2007 1:40 pm

Probably a 25 kt TD. Now we wait for 13L.NONAME.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#554 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 25, 2007 1:46 pm

URNT15 KNHC 251842
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 21 20070925
183400 2143N 09428W 9818 00247 0097 +242 +242 184015 016 999 999 03
183430 2143N 09430W 9819 00245 0096 +242 +242 188015 015 999 999 03
183500 2143N 09431W 9819 00245 0096 +242 +242 194015 016 999 999 03
183530 2143N 09433W 9819 00244 0094 +244 +244 196015 015 999 999 03
183600 2144N 09434W 9818 00245 0094 +246 +246 193015 015 999 999 03
183630 2144N 09436W 9821 00241 0093 +246 +246 207010 012 999 999 03
183700 2144N 09438W 9813 00247 0092 +246 +246 198006 007 999 999 03
183730 2144N 09439W 9820 00241 0092 +250 +246 201007 007 999 999 03
183800 2145N 09441W 9819 00241 0091 +250 +238 204008 009 999 999 03
183830 2145N 09442W 9817 00243 0090 +250 +234 209008 009 999 999 03
183900 2146N 09444W 9821 00238 0090 +246 +246 231006 007 999 999 03
183930 2146N 09446W 9817 00242 0090 +238 +238 226003 005 999 999 03
184000 2147N 09447W 9815 00243 0090 +242 +242 266001 003 999 999 03
184030 2147N 09449W 9822 00237 0090 +248 +248 303004 004 999 999 03
184100 2146N 09450W 9817 00242 0089 +246 +246 317008 009 999 999 03
184130 2145N 09451W 9818 00240 0088 +248 +246 327009 009 999 999 03
184200 2144N 09452W 9818 00240 0088 +248 +246 332011 011 999 999 03
184230 2143N 09454W 9818 00240 0088 +246 +246 337012 012 999 999 03
184300 2142N 09455W 9819 00240 0089 +248 +248 338013 013 999 999 03
184330 2141N 09456W 9818 00241 0089 +250 +248 342014 014 999 999 03

Any doubts of a closed circulation go out the window now. 1009mb the likely pressure.
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

Re:

#555 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Sep 25, 2007 1:58 pm

CrazyC83 wrote: Any doubts of a closed circulation go out the window now. 1009mb the likely pressure.


There were no doubts. Satellite, buoys and now recon all confirm it with west winds. Its been closed. It was closed yesterday when buoy 42055 had the west wind and when satellite showed the west winds win the cu field.

I think CC83 is "ignoring." Too bad.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6666
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#556 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Sep 25, 2007 1:58 pm

Air Force Met From other Thread wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote: S, SW, W and even NW winds...do we have a closed circulation? North winds are all that are needed now it appears.

I also pointed this out last week when recon was out there: Any time you have a west wind you have a closed circulation in a tropical system. You don't need a north wind. It would be extremly rare to streamline a system that was not closed that had a west wind and no north winds in the tropics. It also doesn't matter how you find that west wind: Buoys, ship reports, sfc obs, recon. If you see a west wind (or even WSW), you have a closed low.

That's something I just learned, cool.

*5500th Post*
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#557 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 25, 2007 1:58 pm

URNT15 KNHC 251851
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 22 20070925
184400 2139N 09457W 9818 00241 0089 +250 +250 340015 017 999 999 03
184430 2138N 09458W 9822 00238 0091 +248 +248 319018 019 999 999 03
184500 2137N 09459W 9815 00244 0090 +250 +248 322019 020 999 999 03
184530 2136N 09501W 9818 00242 0090 +250 +246 318020 021 999 999 03
184600 2135N 09502W 9820 00241 0092 +250 +246 315021 022 999 999 03
184630 2133N 09503W 9818 00244 0092 +250 +250 309022 023 999 999 03
184700 2132N 09504W 9818 00245 0094 +250 +250 303023 023 999 999 03
184730 2131N 09505W 9819 00244 0094 +248 +248 303023 023 999 999 03
184800 2130N 09506W 9818 00246 0095 +246 +246 302023 023 999 999 03
184830 2129N 09507W 9819 00245 0095 +250 +246 301022 023 999 999 03
184900 2128N 09508W 9817 00248 0096 +250 +246 301021 022 999 999 03
184930 2127N 09509W 9819 00247 0097 +250 +244 301021 022 999 999 03
185000 2125N 09510W 9818 00248 0097 +250 +242 304021 022 999 999 03
185030 2124N 09511W 9818 00249 0098 +250 +242 305021 022 999 999 03
185100 2123N 09512W 9821 00246 0099 +246 +246 292025 026 999 999 03
185130 2122N 09513W 9817 00251 0100 +240 +240 293024 024 999 999 03
185200 2121N 09514W 9818 00251 0101 +242 +242 292023 024 999 999 03
185230 2120N 09515W 9819 00250 0102 +234 +234 290022 023 999 999 03
185300 2119N 09516W 9818 00251 0102 +236 +236 286022 024 999 999 03
185330 2118N 09517W 9818 00252 0104 +230 +230 293021 023 999 999 03
$$

26 kt FL. Sorry I was not ignoring, I didn't know about that at all.
0 likes   

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

Re: INVEST 94L Recon Obs

#558 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Sep 25, 2007 2:01 pm

000
URNT12 KNHC 251850
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/18:39:30Z
B. 21 deg 47 min N
094 deg 47 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 15 kt
E. 101 deg 023 nm
F. 179 deg 017 kt
G. 100 deg 021 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 24 C/ 267 m
J. 25 C/ 267 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.05 / 3 nm
P. AF305 01JJA INVEST OB 12
MAX FL WIND 25 KT SW QUAD 18:18:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
0 likes   

User avatar
Swimdude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2270
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2004 11:57 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Invest 94L: RECON discussion

#559 Postby Swimdude » Tue Sep 25, 2007 2:03 pm

So... A T.D. with winds only 25 knots @ flight level?
0 likes   

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

Re: Invest 94L: RECON discussion

#560 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Sep 25, 2007 2:05 pm

Swimdude wrote:So... A T.D. with winds only 25 knots @ flight level?


The mission still ongoing. Wait for them to sample more areas of the storm, for stronger winds.
0 likes   


Return to “2007”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests