Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[jasons2k]

Judging by the TWO maybe the answer is this simple: They're busy. Really though, prob. just wanted to confirm recon data....

[Cyclone1]

Wow, TD-13 here before 8. Honestly, I didn't even expect an upgrade then. Whatever, we have a TD! Did NRL ever label this as 13L.NONAME?

[americanrebel]

time to change the title, since we now have TD #13

[Cyclone1]

Wow, TD-13 here before 8. Honestly, I didn't even expect an upgrade then. Whatever, we have a TD! Did NRL ever label this as 13L.NONAME?

Answering my own question, nope. That's kinda strange.

[americanrebel]

time to change the title since this is now TD #13

[CrazyC83]

I think they were waiting and hesitating before deciding to go ahead with TD13.

[cycloneye]

time to change the title since this is now TD #13

Until the advisory is here.

[americanrebel]

oh ok, sorry about that. Got a little jumpy.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 252131
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 38 20070925
212400 2157N 09425W 9814 00250 0098 +234 +234 142016 017 999 999 03
212430 2159N 09423W 9814 00251 0098 +242 +240 143017 017 999 999 03
212500 2200N 09422W 9817 00251 0100 +240 +238 149019 020 999 999 03
212530 2201N 09421W 9811 00256 0100 +244 +234 166021 022 999 999 03
212600 2202N 09419W 9817 00253 0103 +238 +238 173020 020 999 999 03
212630 2203N 09418W 9812 00258 0104 +234 +234 178019 020 999 999 03
212700 2204N 09416W 9817 00254 0104 +238 +238 186014 015 999 999 03
212730 2204N 09414W 9814 00256 0103 +244 +244 148013 014 999 999 03
212800 2206N 09413W 9807 00264 0105 +246 +238 155017 017 999 999 03
212830 2207N 09412W 9814 00264 0112 +246 +236 151018 018 999 999 03
212900 2209N 09410W 9820 00260 0114 +244 +244 153016 017 999 999 03
212930 2211N 09409W 9821 00260 0115 +248 +238 154016 016 999 999 03
213000 2212N 09407W 9820 00261 0115 +250 +238 156015 016 999 999 03
213030 2214N 09406W 9821 00260 0115 +250 +240 155014 014 999 999 03
213100 2215N 09404W 9821 00260 0115 +250 +236 149014 014 999 999 03
213130 2217N 09403W 9819 00261 0113 +250 +238 155014 014 999 999 03
213200 2218N 09401W 9820 00263 0117 +250 +238 161014 014 999 999 03
213230 2220N 09359W 9821 00262 0117 +250 +238 166015 016 999 999 03
213300 2221N 09358W 9820 00263 0117 +250 +238 168015 016 999 999 03
213330 2223N 09356W 9821 00263 0118 +250 +238 162014 015 999 999 03
$$

[Thunder44]

I wonder if this late upgrade has to do with a duty shift change in the forecasters there, that occurs around this time. The first guy doesn't want to upgrade, while the next guy does.

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
2215 UTC TUE SEP 25 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 95.0W AT 25/2215Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 95.0W AT 25/2215Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 94.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 21.4N 95.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 21.2N 95.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.0N 95.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.8N 95.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N 95.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 20.0N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 95.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1

[RL3AO]

000
WTNT23 KNHC 252150
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
2215 UTC TUE SEP 25 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO THIS EVENING.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

[bigGbear]

I wonder if this late upgrade has to do with a duty shift change in the forecasters there, that occurs around this time. The first guy doesn't want to upgrade, while the next guy does.

Perhaps something to do with how to write a discussion with little
or no idea of the actual direction of the track for the next couple
of days - how do you quantitate an "erratic track"? That's not something
many forecasters enjoy.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
515 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO THIS EVENING.

AT 515 PM CDT...2215Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST OR ABOUT
190 MILES...305 KM...EAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. LITTLE
OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 515 PM CDT POSITION...21.7 N...95.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Buck]

They've been pretty obvious, but for once, I've been pretty good with my prediction timing lately... I predicted TD yesterday at 11pm, Karen at 5am, and a special advisory for TD13 this evening. All pretty "duh" but I usually am wrong at even those!

[frederic79]

Four days until landfall? Lots can happen...

[lrak]

thats a fact 4 days, the TD looks like it drifted back away from the Mexican coast.

[Buck]

This could be a very interesting one to watch...