Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[Brent]

This could be one of those nightmare storms for forecasters...

I think a definite hurricane if it doesn't make landfall til Saturday.

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
615 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER HAS COME IN
PULSES...WITH SUFFICIENT REGULARITY FOR THE LOW TO QUALIFY AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 29 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND A BIT...BUT A
LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 220/3. THE DEPRESSION IS IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT...AND LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...AND THIS
PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

THERE IS STILL SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR TAMPICO. THIS SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM AN
OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...
INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...SHOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE
STATISTICAL SHIPS MODEL TAKES THE SYSTEM TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH
IN THREE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THIS GUIDANCE BUT IS
CLOSER TO THE SHIPS SOLUTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2215Z 21.7N 95.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 21.4N 95.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 21.2N 95.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 21.0N 95.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 20.8N 95.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 95.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 20.0N 97.0W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[CrazyC83]

This could be one of those nightmare storms for forecasters...

I think a definite hurricane if it doesn't make landfall til Saturday.

Same here, it might be a fairly intense one too...there is going to be little shear it seems...

[bigGbear]

Perhaps something to do with how to write a discussion with little
or no idea of the actual direction of the track for the next couple
of days - how do you quantitate an "erratic track"? That's not something
many forecasters enjoy.

My bad! They don't issue a discussion with a special advisory. Come
to think of it - maybe that's one reason they delayed.

[HenkL]

URNT11 KNHC 252153
97779 21534 31237 93648 57800 11010 57588 /4591
RMK AF305 01JJA INVEST OB 20
LAST REPORT

Going home.

[CrazyC83]

This could be a very interesting one to watch...

Unlike Karen who we don't really care how strong she gets as she is probably going fishing, this one is a real land threat and climatology seems to favor strengthening...

[cycloneye]

However Crazy,Karen for sure will lift the ace numbers as it will be many days it will be out there and that is important for the overall ace of the 2007 season.

[CrazyC83]

:uarrow: However Crazy,Karen for sure will lift the ace numbers as it will be many days it will be out there and that is important for the overall ace of the 2007 season.

That's true if she can get going; I think Karen is stronger than 35 kt right now.

[Cyclenall]

The NHC forecast calls for a TS (35 knots) in 24 hours, but I have heard it could be a hurricane in 24 hours. Talk about a gab in agreement. I'm going to say it will be 50 knots by then.

[cycloneye]

A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02KKA CYCLONE
C. 26/0245Z
D. 22.0N 95.0W
E. 26/0500Z TO 26/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


The next mission will depart at 10:30 PM EDT.

[Tireman4]

What are the chances this thing blows itself out? I am not being funny, just asking.

[HURAKAN]

Sooner or later, it was prone to happening!!!

[Tireman4]

And the race is on.

[Category 5]

Doesn't look very impressive on Quikscat yet. But it's well defined.

[jaxfladude]

Sooner or later, it was prone to happening!!!

Wow what a TD by the ACC Team....the PAC-10 sure needs to pull this one off or else some might think the Pac-10 may not have more than 1 good team in their league...
very wrong thread and forum..my bad!!!

[jeff]

Questions about NHC upgrading. It has come to my attention and a few others that it seems like NHC will not upgrade without recon confirmation. Good thing Karen is outside the range or we could be waiting on that one. In their defense while yes this may have been a depression yesterday or this morning that fact is that it is not a big threat say in the next 24 hours. Now speaking about Humberto is a different story...that was clearly a depression by 700am and a SP. ADV should have been issued based on NEXRAD and buoy obs alone....recon could have confirmed it was a storm as it did later. While recon is very important systems can be declared based on visible images, surface obs, and Quickscat vectors...seems that when within recon range however...we wait for the final word.

[canegrl04]

I thought this TD is suppose to crash into the N.Mexico coast and was no big deal.Is this suppose to start tracking eastward? If so,it could become a major hurricane.If not,probably and Humberto strngth hurricane

[jeff]

I thought this TD is suppose to crash into the N.Mexico coast and was no big deal.Is this suppose to start tracking eastward? If so,it could become a major hurricane.If not,probably and Humberto strngth hurricane

No Eward track. It should move SW or SSW very slowly and move into MX Friday or Saturday.

[lrak]

I thought this TD is suppose to crash into the N.Mexico coast and was no big deal.Is this suppose to start tracking eastward? If so,it could become a major hurricane.If not,probably and Humberto strngth hurricane

it looks like its reforming like last night except for real this time. I think the LLC followed the MLC to the ENE abit.

[Ptarmigan]

I saw computer models and looks like it will linger over GOM. It would not surprise me if it becomes a hurricane. For now, it will become Lorenzo.