Disturbed Weather over Florida Straits

[Big O]

Another poster (perhaps WXMAN57) noted that both the GFS and EURO have a significant tropical cyclone in NW Carribean/SE GOM later next week. Perhaps, it is this system they are sniffing out. Any thoughts?

[Big O]

Another poster (perhaps WXMAN57) noted that both the GFS and EURO have a significant tropical cyclone in NW Carribean/SE GOM later next week. Perhaps, it is this system they are sniffing out. Any thoughts?

"later next week" should read "later this week into next week" sorry.

[wxman57]

Both the European and the GFS are strongly indicating a TC in the NW Caribbean by early next week. I'm not sure what its origin is. Could be the wave axis that is now 97L sparking convection in the western Caribbean by then. Neither model shows anything moving into the region from the east. I believe the low originates from a combination of the weak/dissipating frontal boundary south of Florida and some energy from a tropical wave. Take a look at what the European shows for 7pm Monday:

[Vortex]

Model agreement is fairly clear on one thing...Low pressure to develop(varying intensity) and be in the vicinity of S.FL the next 36-48 hours. Latest visible gives the appearance there may be something trying to form just off the central cuban coast....

[HURAKAN]

854
ABNT20 KNHC 251516
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED ABOUT 1515 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 180 MILES EAST OF
TAMPICO MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ST. KITTS IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE LOW SHOULD MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE BRITISH AND US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WESTERN CUBA
AND THE WESTERN BAHAMAS IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACES PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AT THIS TIME AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[TampaFl]

In looking at the visible loop it looks like there is some king of development occuring off the north central coast of Cuba. This will need to be monitor closely for development in the next day or so.

Nice sat. loop of close up of the Florida Straits disturbance: (just click on visible sat. animation in the upper right hand corner)


http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/radmaster.pl?Carribbean

[eaglegirl]

Nice sat. loop of close up of the Florida Straits disturbance: (just click on visible sat. animation in the upper right hand corner)


http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/radmaster.pl?Carribbean

(sorry in advance for the one line post)

That is a wonderful link... GREAT IMAGE.... thank you!

[Sanibel]

I think this would make a run at forming if 94L wasn't so close. If you look at WV the two features are separated enough to not affect each other, but this large rain wave is mostly upper level. Heavy rain here as I type.

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 252129
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED ABOUT 1430 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST.
CROIX IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE LOW SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE BRITISH AND US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WESTERN CUBA
AND THE WESTERN BAHAMAS IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACES PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AT THIS TIME AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

[JonathanBelles]

At this point thi think this will push west and develop NW of NW cuba and then push NE over SW FL somewhere between Sarasota and the keys.

[Sanibel]

Still looks like it is trying to calve off a system but is too close to TD13.

[DanKellFla]

It is trying hard, but it really can't seem to get a spin going. It will probably dump a lot of rain and fade away. I hope that Lake O gets some.

[cycloneye]

10:30 PM TWO

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WESTERN CUBA
AND THE WESTERN BAHAMAS IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS DURING THIS PERIOD.

[CrazyC83]

Could that be a sign maybe they will put 98L on this?

[Brent]

Hmmmmm....

[hurricanetrack]

Still looks like it is trying to calve off a system but is too close to TD13.

Wow- rarely do you see the word "calve" used on this message board. Very nice.

Anyhow- interesting to see "slow development possible" in the outlook tonight. Wonder where any development, slow as it may be, would traverse in the coming days?

[gatorcane]

well, well I thought this area did look suspicious when I created this thread yesterday now the NHC agrees.

Hopefully it is "slow development" only.

[deltadog03]

I do see some hint of rotation from the key west radar

[DanKellFla]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... vjava.html

Hmmm, does that look like a spin above the keys? Maybe it will get an Invest status today.

[Meso]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 260919
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED ABOUT 1285 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN....LOCATED ABOUT 205 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS
POORLY ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TODAY.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE WESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS COULD OCCUR OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THIS
TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3 AND
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN