INVEST 97L: Near Puerto Rico :Discussions & Images

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This Wave is being sheared.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TAFB Forecast (24 hours)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If this moves over DR/Hati this is one dead invest. Heck it might already be dead.

[cycloneye]

The rain event is about to start in Puerto Rico.A weak rotation related to the low pressure is noted south of ST Croix.

[Sanibel]

The only thing that could save another Ingrid is the fact that it is in the Caribbean. But I think we are all seeing what it is. Call me when this refires.

[BigA]

If this thing stays in the Caribbean and does not move to the north very much, it could slip under the worst of the shear (maybe) I tend to think that the shear or the mountains of Hispanola will kill it.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

97L is back on NRL.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED ABOUT 1355 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN....LOCATED ABOUT 165 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WESTERN CUBA
AND THE WESTERN BAHAMAS IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS DURING THIS PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3 AND
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

[ROCK]

If this moves over DR/Hati this is one dead invest. Heck it might already be dead.

I agree. Doesnt look that great but heavy rains for the islands will do some damage. Hope you guys down there stay safe.....

[Blown Away]

Looks like a tight LLC on radar, I'm probably wrong but it looks that way rate now.

[Blown Away]

If 97L is still classified as an Invest, why aren't there new model runs? Lots of convection build up on the IR this AM.

[bvigal]

Probably the reason they quit running models, is that 97L is weak, little wind, and will likely end in western Dominican Republic. We had some great thunder and lightning last night as it went by, but not enough rain (we are at 1/2 of average for the year!)

[cycloneye]

I was awaken at 3 AM by loud thunder,and was raining hard,but after that almost one hour period,it calmed down.San Juan is with light rain falling now.Wind was not an issue in Puerto Rico with this.The flooding of streets was the main one.But those haved goned down.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261114
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
714 AM AST WED SEP 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE MOVED
ACROSS THE VI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED THIS WAVE...BRINGING
PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING TO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL PR...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO HEAD
WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER THE INITIAL BAND OF
MOISTURE AND STRONG SHOWER ACTIVITY...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE AFTERNOON HEATING
COMBINES WITH CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND GOOD MOISTURE BEHIND THIS
WAVE...TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
Wet weather conditions on your island Cycloneye had occured yesterday night in your island ...hope not too much rain in your location

[gerrit]

Yep, a big thunderstorm in the middle of the night. Quiet and dry and no wind as from approx. 5 AM.

[HURAKAN]

Watch out!!!

[bvigal]

Holy cow, look at that! Well, it's interesting, maybe they did quit too soon watching the models. I thought yesterday this could be a SFla threat, but figured they knew shear would kill this and it wouldn't get that far. If it survives Hispaniola, look out, you could have one of those that blows up quickly, over some hot water, right in the neighborhood.
Sorry, deleted model, already posted in correct thread by Luis.
here

[gatorcane]

Indeed, I think many South Floridians have the attitude "well this will just die off like Ingrid"

Folks if that shear just relaxes it could easily blow up into a major hurricane between Hispaniola and South Florida -- given the warm oceanic heat content.

But that is IF the shear lets up

[weatherwoman]

what is the canadian model doing with this thing? could that even begin to happen, I know they never get nothing right but sure looks funny could be bad for us here in morehead city sunday if that comes to pass

[Thunder44]

Indeed, I think many South Floridians have the attitude "well this will just die off like Ingrid"

Folks if that shear just relaxes it could easily blow up into a major hurricane between Hispaniola and South Florida -- given the warm oceanic heat content.

But that is IF the shear lets up

It won't let up if the system over the Florida Straits develops.