Tropical Wave SW of Cape Verde Islands

[Gustywind]

Did pre-karen look like this or did it look better.

It looked better organized. Nevertheless, the intensity of the convection is impressive.

Did you read my new thread" Newly Wave at 19w"? I put a new thread on that maybe we can merge it or wait a little....

Very nice job Hurakan i like you pics that's great

[BigA]

If that thing formed at 7 North it would have a wicked hard time recurving, it looks like. Looks very impressive on satellite, especially this time of year.

[Gustywind]

If that thing formed at 7 North it would have a wicked hard time recurving, it looks like. Looks very impressive on satellite, especially this time of year.

Yeah agree with you and seems that we're really in the peak of the season with numerous late CV waves...?definitely interresting to watch busy week in tape if this trend continue and further east thunderstorm activity seems persisting too be ready we will see what happens!

[OURAGAN]

It's a la nina patern.

[Gustywind]

It's a la nina patern.

Absolutely or Maybe added to Global warming? but playing a role on the activity right now...quite well expected by Gray and the others teams trying to work on that

[HURAKAN]

[Gustywind]

Something cooking!

[Gustywind]

Note that it's very low in latitude too... convection persisting a little bit this evening, better and better...interessting Hurakan!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

8 north/26 west seems to be a LLC with deep convection. This looks to be well on its way to invest 98L. Heck it might even take the L name, if the td in the gulf does not hurry up.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds32.png

[KWT]

For what its worth this does look like its close to being an invest right now, doesn't look quite as large as Karen did at this sage though its not small either.
As for the cape verde season, the high that was surpressing development in the E.Atlantic has finally moved away to an extent that development is possibe here...also given there is so much moisture across central Africa (which all the flooding) its hardly surprising that the waves are still being pumped out.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing is more impressive then tropical depression 13. If the LLC can become more defined and the convection can hold for the next 24 hours. I would give this high chances of becoming something.

[marcane_1973]

It blew up overnight. Just as big as Karen now. Should become an invest if it persists like it has.

[Thunder44]

I can tell on satellite imagery yet, if there is much rotation in the low-levels, but it looks very impressive this morning with outflow channels on the north and south side of system. It should be an invest:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullir.html

[HURAKAN]

[Gustywind]

For what its worth this does look like its close to being an invest right now, doesn't look quite as large as Karen did at this sage though its not small either.
As for the cape verde season, the high that was surpressing development in the E.Atlantic has finally moved away to an extent that development is possibe here...also given there is so much moisture across central Africa (which all the flooding) its hardly surprising that the waves are still being pumped out.

Absolutely guy it's maybe a new window for these waves to be more georgeous, it's second wave behin Karen and we can observed another cluster on Africa too, definitely another pattern on tape if thos trend continues very south and organized with good moisture as you said...fascinating to track

[punkyg]

OH GOD! *music* dang i can't remember which model it was, but it was one of them or a couple that developed 2 systems behind karen.

karen you little sister is nice.

[Gustywind]

This thing is more impressive then tropical depression 13. If the LLC can become more defined and the convection can hold for the next 24 hours. I would give this high chances of becoming something.

Yes for sure nice popping convection, and do the models develop it? too early maybe but we should continue to monitor it !

[Gustywind]

OH GOD! *music* dang i can't remember which model it was, but it was one of them or a couple that developed 2 systems behind karen.

karen you little sister is nice.

Correct punkyg... boiling trend right now! It will be interesting to monitor it at this rate we should see an invest before Friday!

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 261030
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 20W/21W S OF
16W...ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL
IN LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND VORTICITY...AND THE UW
CIMSS TPW PRODUCTS. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS JUST E OF THE AXIS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 17W-21W. ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A
MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ JUST TO THE E OF THE WAVE...WITHIN 180 NM
OF 6N27W.
Looking good this morning

[punkyg]

Before this can become an invest it would have to hold onto convection as good or better then karen.
then we'll have to do the wait until 3am for her to be tagged an invest
then wait 3 days then it would be named.

thats what karen did so i expect this to happen to this wave.