INVEST 97L: Near Puerto Rico: Global & BAM Models

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

and the models sure to point to almost florida.
thats a fact.

Gonna be a wild week folks...Get that coffee ready (uggh i hate
coffee...chocolate is so much better).

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

checked the latest shear ensembles;

i think this will be a rain event for the islands and
perhaps a minimal tropical depression if it survives the shear
intensifying to a 40 mph ts prior to florida landfall.

But if shear is strong enough, it will remain a 30 mph
depression as it approaches florida and will do little more
than breezy rains across the state this weekend.

I'll go with a blend- 97L's max intensity based on the shear forecasts
is 35 mph I expect within the next 5 days. Mostly a rain event with some
breezy to occasionally windy conditions.

[wxmann_91]

Globals are my good ol homies.
TCHP color my PC with semblances of beauty.
SAT loops convey to my soul the kinematics of this earth.
IR Loops add a flavor to kinematic revolution.

You have a way with words. Thanks for the reply.

Regarding instincts, I don't think it's unscientific to use instincts - backed by experience, instincts are some of the most powerful tools around, otherwise forecasts would just be computer model outputs.

I do think your forecasts a little "over the top" bullish sometimes. But my original post asking for your methodology wasn't a critque at you, just to clarify.

[attallaman]

97L won't pose any threat to the GOM will it? I'm reading all of these posts mentioning that it could affect FL. There's no chance of it coming across FL and entering the GOM is there? I certainly hope not.

[americanrebel]

Just wondering if the models have been stopped on this system or not? nothing since early this morning.

[cycloneye]

Just wondering if the models have been stopped on this system or not? nothing since early this morning.

They ran at 12:00 UTC.Shortly,the 18:00 UTC run will be out.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If the shear lets up any, some development may occur.

But regardless of development, this will bring windy thunderstorms
to puerto rico, possibly the dominican republic, other caribbean islands,
and South Florida by Sunday. The caribbean islands and then south florida
can expect some heavy rains and breezes from this.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

With a ridge building: Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic, Bahamas, South Florida
lie in the path based on model runs Consistency and synoptics.

Regardless of development there will be squalls of windy rain
on this path. Watch the shear profiles. Right now shear
is forecasted to inhibit 97L, but it needs to be watched.

Until more is known about shear I cannot speculate on intensity.

[JonathanBelles]

I think Fl and most of the antilles will have a very rainy week or two ahead.

[RL3AO]

The XTRP model has it in for Florida.



</sarcasm>

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The XTRP model has it in for Florida.



</sarcasm>

I do not look at the XTRP in making my predictions.

I clearly stated that we look to Synoptics, not
an arbitrary extrapolated track.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Melbourne NWS discusses the large ridge and the
heavy rain expected with 97L as it approaches Southeast
Florida:

weather.gov
National Weather Service


THU-FRI...EVOLUTION OF WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE RAIN CHANCES. THE LATEST GFS LIFTS/SHEARS
MID LEVEL TROUGH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON THU AND KEEPS DEEP
MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. DRYING IS
FORECAST ON FRI BEHIND THE WEAK LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTACHED
TO IT. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THU SINCE IT
IS CLOSE TO THE MAV GUIDANCE...AGAIN CONFINING LIKELY POPS TO THE
SOUTHERN PART AND 40-50 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. THE 12Z MEX GUIDANCE
HAS POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT FRI BUT HAVE NOT GONE THAT LOW YET AND
WILL STAY WITH 30 PERCENT EXCEPT 40 IN THE SOUTH.

WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TO
AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING SAT AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THE LATEST GFS IS SHOWING DEEP
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING
BACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AND BECOMING
BREEZY. THIS SHOWERY PATTERN IS PROGGED TO HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND GIVEN A RATHER GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS...WE SHOULD END THE
MONTH ON THE WET SIDE.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... MLB&max=10

[jasons2k]

It's a weak system and if it treks directly over Hispaniola it may never make it to FL, much less the GOM.

[cycloneye]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0210 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972007) 20070925 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070925 1800 070926 0600 070926 1800 070927 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.2N 63.2W 17.8N 65.2W 18.4N 67.6W 18.8N 70.1W
BAMD 17.2N 63.2W 17.7N 64.3W 17.8N 65.7W 17.9N 67.2W
BAMM 17.2N 63.2W 17.8N 65.2W 18.2N 67.4W 18.7N 69.7W
LBAR 17.2N 63.2W 17.8N 64.6W 18.2N 66.5W 18.6N 69.0W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070927 1800 070928 1800 070929 1800 070930 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.6N 72.7W 20.9N 76.6W 21.6N 79.4W 22.1N 82.1W
BAMD 18.0N 68.8W 18.7N 71.8W 19.3N 74.0W 19.6N 75.5W
BAMM 19.4N 72.0W 20.9N 75.5W 21.9N 77.9W 22.8N 79.7W
LBAR 19.1N 71.4W 21.4N 75.4W 22.9N 77.7W 24.3N 78.4W
SHIP 34KTS 43KTS 53KTS 59KTS
DSHP 26KTS 34KTS 33KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.2N LONCUR = 63.2W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 61.3W DIRM12 = 315DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 59.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Blown Away]

The models have 97L as a moderate TS near the end of the run. The NHC is pretty much writing this off saying upper levels are not favorable for a few days, how can any confidence be given to the SHIP, and if there is very low confidence what is the point of that prediction?

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 261241
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1241 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972007) 20070926 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070926 1200 070927 0000 070927 1200 070928 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.0N 66.8W 19.9N 69.2W 21.1N 71.6W 22.4N 73.4W
BAMD 19.0N 66.8W 19.4N 68.0W 19.9N 69.4W 20.5N 71.0W
BAMM 19.0N 66.8W 19.7N 68.8W 20.5N 70.9W 21.7N 72.8W
LBAR 19.0N 66.8W 20.1N 68.6W 21.1N 70.6W 22.2N 72.2W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070928 1200 070929 1200 070930 1200 071001 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.6N 74.8W 24.9N 76.8W 25.1N 79.6W 25.5N 82.9W
BAMD 21.1N 72.3W 21.8N 74.3W 22.2N 75.6W 23.5N 77.3W
BAMM 22.8N 74.2W 24.2N 75.7W 24.9N 77.3W 26.2N 79.9W
LBAR 23.6N 73.8W 25.5N 74.8W 26.4N 76.4W 27.0N 78.8W
SHIP 40KTS 52KTS 60KTS 66KTS
DSHP 40KTS 52KTS 60KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.0N LONCUR = 66.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 17.5N LONM12 = 64.3W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 16.8N LONM24 = 62.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

SHIP goes up to hurricane.And the tracks will be liked by some enthusiastic peeps.

[gatorcane]

again if SHIPS was right and it was heading towards SE Florida this board is sinking

[bvigal]

Where are they getting that 19.0N 66.8W postion north of PR?
26/1145 UTC 17.1N 65.8W T1.0/1.0 97L

[HURAKAN]

again if SHIPS was right and it was heading towards SE Florida this board is sinking

If conditions were favorable for development, the board would go crazy!!!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

With 98 already in the area, wouldn't that greatly affect the ability fo this to do anything?