INVEST 98L: FL East Coast: Discussions & Images

[drezee]

924
WHXX01 KWBC 261321
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1321 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070926 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070926 1200 070927 0000 070927 1200 070928 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.5N 81.8W 25.3N 82.2W 26.0N 82.1W 26.8N 81.5W
BAMD 24.5N 81.8W 25.2N 81.4W 25.9N 80.9W 26.8N 80.3W
BAMM 24.5N 81.8W 25.4N 81.8W 26.2N 81.5W 27.2N 80.8W
LBAR 24.5N 81.8W 25.6N 81.6W 27.1N 81.3W 29.3N 81.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 31KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070928 1200 070929 1200 070930 1200 071001 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.4N 81.0W 27.9N 81.8W 27.7N 84.7W 26.6N 88.8W
BAMD 28.1N 79.1W 31.2N 76.3W 32.6N 75.1W 32.7N 77.1W
BAMM 28.3N 79.9W 30.1N 78.7W 30.5N 80.2W 30.7N 84.4W
LBAR 31.6N 79.9W 35.9N 74.3W 37.1N 67.6W 35.9N 63.1W
SHIP 53KTS 58KTS 55KTS 51KTS
DSHP 35KTS 39KTS 36KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.5N LONCUR = 81.8W DIRCUR = 25DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 23.7N LONM12 = 82.2W DIRM12 = 25DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 22.8N LONM24 = 82.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[punkyg]

YAY!
So now we have 98L where do you think it will go?

[drezee]

[canegrl04]

Is this headed into the Gulf?

[Thunder44]

Up on NRL now:

[HURAKAN]

Is this headed into the Gulf?

Out of the Gulf!

[gatorcane]

It's looking like its organizing to me -- I think possible depression soon.

Nice convection and a good rotation with light upper-level winds.

[rockyman]

Current steering map:



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

[HURAKAN]

Looks pretty good in the loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[gatorcane]

I think it could move ENE to NE into the Bahamas stall and then move back west looking at the synoptics.

Can we get a floater on this please? I think things are changing quickly down there.

Big time flooding threat for South Florida, could catch alot by surprise.

[rockyman]

Here's a good radar loop, since the NWS sites are not working right now:

http://intellicast.com/National/Radar/OneKM.aspx?location=USFL0244&enlarge=true&animate=true

[HURAKAN]

Latest radar:

[jlauderdal]

YAY!
So now we have 98L where do you think it will go?

there is only one way for it to go and that is NE.

[jlauderdal]

Here's a good radar loop, since the NWS sites are not working right now:

http://intellicast.com/National/Radar/OneKM.aspx?location=USFL0244&enlarge=true&animate=true

the mia radar is less than dependable thats for sure.

[gatorcane]

is it moving or stationary? ...look at the plume of tropical moisture heading towards South Florida.

[xironman]

Check out the high res sat loop, out by Key West just at the west edge of the convection you can see the lower swirl

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-82&zoom=1&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=6

Moving west.

[poof121]

We have closed circulation? Buoy has WSW wind...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=MLRF1

[Bgator]

It has been raining here since i woke up at 6, and even before that. The rain just started getting heavier, most the the rain seems to be moving into Miami area, due to this low forming near the keyes. Does any pro met think this will develop?

[flwxwatcher]

I think it could move ENE to NE into the Bahamas stall and then move back west looking at the synoptics.

Can we get a floater on this please? I think things are changing quickly down there.

Big time flooding threat for South Florida, could catch alot by surprise.

Thats like a scenario I have been thinking about , 98L could move NE and then get caught under the Big high moving off the Eastern Seaboard this week-end and for that matter 97L could pile in to this set-up as well and that could help be the spark for some home brew of the SE Coast/Florida early next week. Interesting week ahead in the Tropics.

[gatorcane]

It has been raining here since i woke up at 6, and even before that. The rain just started getting heavier, most the the rain seems to be moving into Miami area, due to this low forming near the keyes. Does any pro met think this will develop?

Yes development is possible. To me on this VIS loop it looks like it is getting that signature Tropical Storm look -- at least its trying to. Still most of the convection is east of the low near South Florida.
Water temps near 88F in the region the low is at. Strengthening certainly possible.

Definitely La nina is starting to take its toll.

Shear 10K out of the west right now.

You can see the low just west of Key West drifting West this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html