Tropical Wave SW of Cape Verde Islands

[Gustywind]

Yeah punkhg but at this rate if if if this trend continues more than 24h we could see probably an invest before sunday for sure give it 24h more...as usual PERSISTENCE is the key factor

[punkyg]

Its still has convection, but not looking as pretty as earlier.

[Gustywind]

yes but always suscipious in term of convection matter of time we will see be patient

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg
Look at how far south it is and how big it is.
its doing fine covection wise since this wave might have a low with it where could it be.

[njweather]

er, is that cluster of storms behind it also part of the system?

if not, that looks pretty well off on its own...

[Gustywind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg
Look at how far south it is and how big it is.
its doing fine covection wise since this wave might have a low with it where could it be.

Yeah i told you that very suscipious at that lattitude imagine if there's no weakness on this :..west tracker hope noooo, there's plenty of time but in this position suspect with all that convection and this huge size

[Gustywind]

er, is that cluster of storms behind it also part of the system?

if not, that looks pretty well off on its own...

Apparently yes grrr: in the two...... but keep watching it for sure, we"re always in september in highly sure in my humble opinion the PEAK of the season is right now....here is the TWO at 805am
000
AXNT20 KNHC 261030
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 20W/21W S OF
16W...ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND VORTICITY...AND THE UW CIMSS TPW PRODUCTS. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST E OF THE AXIS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 17W-21W. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ JUST TO THE E OF THE WAVE...WITHIN 180 NM
OF 6N27W. .... they include it the tropical wave ??humm with the wave ...activity in a word..something to watch too!

[HURAKAN]

404
ABNT20 KNHC 261505
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED ABOUT 1225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN....LOCATED ABOUT 205 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE VICINITY OF KEY WEST
FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
A PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ACCOMPANIED
BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

A COUPLE OF WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVES ARE LOCATED OVER THE FAR
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. BOTH SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT AS THEY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3 AND
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

SOMEONE, CLOSE THE DOOR!!!

[RL3AO]

TD13 has Lorenzo most likely so after than we have Melissa, Noel, and Olga. Didn't think I would need to learn those names.

[Brent]

WHOA... more CV storms?

We're apparently just flying through the list of names now after taking forever to get some of them.

[Sanibel]

Finally the CV waves are maintaining deep moisture off Africa. If this one forms there's no reason why it won't follow Karen out to sea through the same weakness.

[BigA]

Wow, the Atlantic must have slept through its early September alarm clock and woke up now! It may be the effects of the building La-nina, or it could be statistical noise. In either case, I dont like the chances of recurving for a system that forms at 8 North.

15-17 is looking like a realistic final number of named storms.

[BigA]

Finally the CV waves are maintaining deep moisture off Africa. If this one forms there's no reason why it won't follow Karen out to sea through the same weakness.

This is true, but if the ridge builds back in it may not. It is also at a very low latitude, and there is no guarentee that Karen will head permantanly out to sea. Very little is completely clear at this point, excepet that the next days will be interesting.

[Gustywind]

404
ABNT20 KNHC 261505
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED ABOUT 1225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN....LOCATED ABOUT 205 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE VICINITY OF KEY WEST
FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
A PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ACCOMPANIED
BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

A COUPLE OF WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVES ARE LOCATED OVER THE FAR
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. BOTH SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT AS THEY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3 AND
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

SOMEONE, CLOSE THE DOOR!!!

Yeah man tkanks a lot !

[Fego]

May I disagree?.. Let it open!

[Gustywind]

How are you fego? not too wet with twawe crossing your island. By the way, we have candidate in the next couple of days let's see what happen with seem georgeous right now...

[HURAKAN]

May I disagree?.. Let it open!

As a big fan of tropical cyclones you must realize I was joking!!!

"Let the fury begin" is always my slogan on tropical cyclone activity.

[Gustywind]

Wide view of the Atlantic and its wonderful activity http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Graphical TWO

[punkyg]

Graphical TWO

So that whole mess of convection is 1 wave?