Waiting for the On-Switch

[cpdaman]

good posts all around

i think that for texas the season is shorter and that at this time of the year (late august) alot more of the storms that effected (texas) have occurred by now, and a much lesser percentage of florida strikes have occured by this date.

yes texas is still threatened by storms, and dean was a wake-up call ( a few scary days) for those on texas coast (when the models were pointed their)

i think it is a matter of perception due to location (because for some (texas) the season closes earlier

[Extremeweatherguy]

As for the Houston, TX hurricane season in particular (since I live there), here is a look at all the storms to pass within 65 miles of the northern part of the city during the months of June, July, August, September and October...

June - http://csc-s-maps-p.csc.noaa.gov/output ... 644043.jpg

July - http://csc-s-maps-p.csc.noaa.gov/output ... 644047.jpg

August - http://csc-s-maps-p.csc.noaa.gov/output ... 644049.jpg

September - http://csc-s-maps-p.csc.noaa.gov/output ... 644056.jpg

October - http://csc-s-maps-p.csc.noaa.gov/output ... 644062.jpg

It is clear on these maps that August and September are both very active months in SE Texas, with the peak likely being in September. Based on this, I think it is safe to say that we should continue watching things closely for at least the next month or month and a half. Once October arrives though, our chances for a strike go way down with only 4 storms ever striking the Houston area during that month and only 1 of them being a major storm (Cat. 3 in October 1949).

[Tropics Guy]

Looks like dry air is sucking a lot of the CV waves dry , coming off the African coast. Being that there is only about 3 weeks left of the CV season, the switch needs to be turned on rather quickly., otherwise it will be another "homegrown(close-in) type of year, of course with the exception of Dean, which may end up being an anomoly this year.
Here is a wide-view shot of the atlantic WV, showing the dry air affecting the CV waves as they make it across and eventually go "poof".

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg

TG

[cycloneye]

Mike,it looks like some of the peeps are starting to give up the season.Say something to them to see if their thinking changes.

[RL3AO]

If you give up on a season in August...well, thats just moronic.

[dwg71]

If you give up on a season in August...well, thats just moronic.

Giving up completely - yes, but saying it will be less active than predicted is not a "moronic" statement. In two weeks we will be at the statistical peak or just past it, if we are still sitting on 5, I would expect a season of 10-12 and not 14-16. JMHO

[Blown Away]

Has the switch been turned on? (3) legit storms and (6) sheared messes. I know the total numbers are around average, but the quality of most of these storms was poor.

[RL3AO]

Has the switch been turned on? (3) legit storms and (6) sheared messes. I know the total numbers are around average, but the quality of most of these storms was poor.

9 storms. 6 have made landfall. That is above normal.

[ConvergenceZone]

While I think the season is about to wrap up, it turned out to be quite a normal season afterall...It just seems like it was below normal because the USA has been so lucky the last 2 years...I can't imagine us being lucky for a third year in a row. Might as well be struck by lightning if that happens.....

Anyway, I'm seeing an early end to the season. The conditions out in the Atlantic are just too damn hostile. Too much shear here, too much dry air there, ULLs all over the place, and it seems like this has all been increasing over the last week, so perhaps mother nature is throwing in the towel as well....While there have been storms/canes that have developed in October and November, there have also been many many years where it's been dead in those months, and based upon the conditions I"m seeing out in the atlantic/carib, I'm leaning on them to be dead again.... It's all about the shear and there's just too damn much of it out there for anything to sustain itself.......I'm just glad it was more active than last year. It was a blast tracking Dean and Floyd(before they hit land that is)....

[MiamiensisWx]

While I think the season is about to wrap up, it turned out to be quite a normal season afterall...It just seems like it was below normal because the USA has been so lucky the last 2 years...I can't imagine us being lucky for a third year in a row. Might as well be struck by lightning if that happens.....

Anyway, I'm seeing an early end to the season. The conditions out in the Atlantic are just too damn hostile. Too much shear here, too much dry air there, ULLs all over the place, and it seems like this has all been increasing over the last week, so perhaps mother nature is throwing in the towel as well....While there have been storms/canes that have developed in October and November, there have also been many many years where it's been dead in those months, and based upon the conditions I"m seeing out in the atlantic/carib, I'm leaning on them to be dead again.... It's all about the shear and there's just too damn much of it out there for anything to sustain itself.......I'm just glad it was more active than last year. It was a blast tracking Dean and Floyd(before they hit land that is)....

Interestingly, it looks like the TUTT is finally moving out of the area.

I'm not joking. Look at the recent loops over the past several days. Shear appears to be slowly relaxing over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic basin. You can see the changes if you move a few inches away from the monitor. Note the weaker upper-level westerly flow and more prevalent easterlies at the low to mid-levels. Shear is still strong, but it looks less hostile than the previous weeks.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

The situation has been gradually improving for development. Compare this recent shear map (below) with the previous weeks' data. I suspect we'll see lowering pressures over the Caribbean Sea, too.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

Irony is a beautiful thing. This season's surprises won't end for anyone. I could be wrong, but I have an odd feeling that something will garner our attention before the season reaches its close at the end of November. It's not 93L, too. I think we may see one more surprise.

[Frank2]

With all due respect to the poster from Minnesota - leave it to someone from that far north to critize those down here, who hope for something less than a catastrophic hurricane...

Perhaps he (or she) would like to live here at this time of year - I don't think they'd be whistling that same tune for very long...

I won't guess, but, it does seem like the season will end "on schedule" in the month of October (even though the official season ends on November 30), however, I'm hoping the rainy season won't end on schedule - as of today, due to a very costly error last summer (when about 3 or 4 feet of Lake Okeechobee water was released - largely based on fear, incidentially), today's Lake level is at 9.59 feet - about 4 or 5 feet below what it should be at this time of year...

If the dry season comes with the Lake below 10 feet - this will possibly mean a very critical shortage of fresh water for all of South Florida...

In decades past, even during dry periods, the Lake would refill fairly quickly, from the chain of lakes area south of Orlando, however, with Orlando as large as it's become, that water is now less available, so, summer rainfall has become even more critical to the inland environment of the peninsula...

So, rain, yes - hurricanes (anything more than a Category 1), hopefully not...

[RL3AO]

With all due respect to the poster from Minnesota - leave it to someone from that far north to critize those down here, who hope for something less than a catastrophic hurricane...

Perhaps he (or she) would like to live here at this time of year - I don't think they'd be whistling that same tune for very long...

I said "9 storms. 6 have made landfall. That is above normal." Where did I say I was hoping for a catastrophic hurricane?

[Stephanie]

With all due respect to the poster from Minnesota - leave it to someone from that far north to critize those down here, who hope for something less than a catastrophic hurricane...

Perhaps he (or she) would like to live here at this time of year - I don't think they'd be whistling that same tune for very long...

I said "9 storms. 6 have made landfall. That is above normal." Where did I say I was hoping for a catastrophic hurricane?

I didn't see it either.

Frank, you may want to clarify what you meant.

[gatorcane]

I think Frank2 may be right folks --- he has been calling this all season. The westerlies have arrived early and may cap this season for good.

Frank2 good call so far I think I am jumping on your bandwagon.

[MWatkins]

Hmmm...I think it's finally time to declare the switch thrown.

We have Karen intensifying in the central Atlantic

We have a depression getting much more active in the Gulf

We have a rain event unfolding over Florida and a a new Invest there

And the wave SW of Karen has a good shot at development as well

It's a little later than we thought...but things are getting very active in the tropics...

MW

[RL3AO]

Yes it has Mike. That 12-14 is starting to look like a possible 15-17.

[Brent]

Hmmm...I think it's finally time to declare the switch thrown.

We have Karen intensifying in the central Atlantic

We have a depression getting much more active in the Gulf

We have a rain event unfolding over Florida and a a new Invest there

And the wave SW of Karen has a good shot at development as well

It's a little later than we thought...but things are getting very active in the tropics...

MW

Yep! If this isn't the on switch then I don't want to know what it is.

[Category 5]

We're at 11 named storms, the average for a full season. One more and it's offcially above average. That might be accomplished tonight or tommorow (TD 13)

[Stormcenter]

Personally we could have a 100 named storms and as long as they don't
make landfall or cause serious damage then I'm a happy camper. I
never get caught up in the numbers (named storms) game. Yes we have more activity out there but seriously do we really have any immediate serious threats.....no. Folks
it's getting late and things will begin to phase down sooner then later so enjoy this (tropical activity)while it's here. IMO

[jasons2k]

This is my favorite thread in a long time.

It's a microcosm of the battle that has raged all season long.

It's not even October folks - its' too early to refer to the season in the past tense - it's not over 'till it's over!!