INVEST 97L: Near Puerto Rico :Discussions & Images

[gerrit]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 260919
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007

.......................

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS
POORLY ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TODAY.

...................

[HURAKAN]

404
ABNT20 KNHC 261505
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED ABOUT 1225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN....LOCATED ABOUT 205 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE VICINITY OF KEY WEST
FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
A PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ACCOMPANIED
BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

A COUPLE OF WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVES ARE LOCATED OVER THE FAR
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. BOTH SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT AS THEY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3 AND
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Sanibel]

Like Ingrid, it did a false convection refire and broke back into a wave. Karen is the big show in town.

[Steve]

>>Like Ingrid, it did a false convection refire and broke back into a wave. Karen is the big show in town.

It's not going to do anything until Sunday or Monday off the FL Coast (E, S or W) - if ever. That's why Matt-hurricanewatcher's post about Hispanola ripping it apart is also invalid. The upper setup should be there with a cold high moving off the coast and a building ridge from the SW Atlantic. That' was 57's point yesterday. So while nothing much is going on now (and may never), that's kind of the way things are gonna be the next 3-4 days as the wave migrates toward the W and WNW. JMO

Steve

[Lowpressure]

>>Like Ingrid, it did a false convection refire and broke back into a wave. Karen is the big show in town.

It's not going to do anything until Sunday or Monday off the FL Coast (E, S or W) - if ever. That's why Matt-hurricanewatcher's post about Hispanola ripping it apart is also invalid. The upper setup should be there with a cold high moving off the coast and a building ridge from the SW Atlantic. That' was 57's point yesterday. So while nothing much is going on now (and may never), that's kind of the way things are gonna be the next 3-4 days as the wave migrates toward the W and WNW. JMO

Steve

And it now appears it may be in the wake of 98L. Which would suggest a building ridge behind the departing system.

[Steve]

>>And it now appears it may be in the wake of 98L. Which would suggest a building ridge behind the departing system.

Exactly. The pattern isn't going to repeat forever, or even if it does, the waters are going to get cooler. But for now, high pressures keep riding down from the midwest and are generally oriented longer NS than they are EW. These move into the W Atlantic while the general Bermuda Ridge pulses back and forth (mostly forth) after each trough lifts out. Assuming 98L gets pulled up, which I think it will (wasn't as clear yesterday), then all bets are off for target/threat area if one materializes. 2007 will be known as a mostly western and southern Gulf (BoC) year. But as time goes on, the threats move farther north and more eastward. That's the way things almost always play out in Gulf or Florida years. As someone (actually many people) was ringing the death knell in early September, the US landfalling season hadn't even really started yet. There's no telling if there is going to be one, but TD #10 set the bar. There should still be some threats in this next pulse which would take us into mid-October. After that, the season is mostly over with a lingering threat to South Florida and points much farther south than that.

Steve

[americanrebel]

So will they send a recon out on this system?

[Brent]

5:30pm TWO:

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BUT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE.

[cycloneye]

I think that this invest will be dropped tonight.

[mightyerick]

Is it still Invest??? Wow

[chadtm80]

Well NRL site is down, but it would appear 97L is gone as Tropical Program sees no info for 97 any longer, but does for 98

[CrazyC83]

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE 1012
MB LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OR SURFACE DATA. THE WAVE SHOWS
A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V PATTERN AND WAS MOVED SLIGHTLY AHEAD
BASED ON THAT. THE AXIS IS CURRENTLY ALONG 69W GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA AND NW
VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS.
THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR...AND LIGHTNING DATA DEPICT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS WAVE.

[chadtm80]

Yep.. NRL back up and 97L is infact gone