INVEST 97L: Near Puerto Rico: Global & BAM Models

[fci]

98L would likely be long gone by then.

My question is that if a trough is going to pull 98L NE away from South Florida, then why woudl 97L not get pulled.

And if 97 L is not pulled, then why would Karen not follow the same path.

Wow lots of questions.... not used to so many systems to follow at once.

[Lowpressure]

Similar thoughts here. It would stand to reason that 98L departing should leave a ridge in it's wake, therfore making both 97L and Karen a threat. I think 98L surprised models as well as many of us. The models are bending west for Karen. I think the true effect of 98L will hinge on how strong it gets and where it goes, that will help determine 97L and Karens future movement.

[boca]

98L would likely be long gone by then.

My question is that if a trough is going to pull 98L NE away from South Florida, then why woudl 97L not get pulled.

And if 97 L is not pulled, then why would Karen not follow the same path.

Wow lots of questions.... not used to so many systems to follow at once.

The only thing getting pulled is my chain. When 98L moves NE out of here would the ridge build in and force 97L WNW or pull it north like 98L is doing now.I'm confused.

[fci]

Any Pro Mets want to chime in with their thoughts on how these 3 systems interact and affect the tracks of each other

[Steve]

>>Any Pro Mets want to chime in with their thoughts on how these 3 systems interact and affect the tracks of each other

Not a pro, but to me the answer would be not much if at all. 98L will just get sucked NE by a front (may become a low, possibly even tropical, along the way). A ridge is building in behind it anyway. Karen is in like what, the 30's west? Nothing forms that far out and runs the table in October (or very rarely does that happen). There's liable to be a weakness in a ridge or between ridges that it's just going to follow. These are not interconnected except for the patterns that have them where they are. = not much significant effect because the ridge isn't building back in response to 98L (it is because a trough will be lifting out regardless of the existence of 98L).

JMO

Steve

[fci]

Thanks for your thoughts, Steve.

[Steve H.]

Interesting snippet from the HPC: ...TROPICS...

ONE DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER VCNTY OF SRN FL WILL
GET CAUGHT UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN A COUPLE DAYS. HURCN KAREN
SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL NW TRACK THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE
ARE ALSO WATCHING FOR THE EVOLUTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OR
DEPRESSION NEAR THE BAHAMAS/PUERTO RICO THAT MAY DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. PLEASE CONSULT TPC BULLETINS FRO
MORE INFO ON THESE SYS.

What ever is left of 97L i am assuming. Shear is supposed to abate this weekend.