Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Brent]

Track shifts westward again... but I still think it recurves easily.

[Cyclone1]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 262048
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 PM AST WED SEP 26 2007

...KAREN REMAINS BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1175
MILES...1890 KM...EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS THOUGH A SMALL INCREASE WOULD BRING KAREN TO HURRICANE
INTENSITY. A NOAA HURRICANE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...12.4 N...43.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

[punkyg]

000
URNT15 KWBC 262044
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 09 20070926
203500 1256N 05339W 5153 05642 0291 -038 -083 051008 008 009 000 00
203530 1256N 05336W 5153 05644 0291 -038 -079 050007 008 008 000 00
203600 1256N 05334W 5153 05644 0291 -037 -078 051006 007 006 000 00
203630 1256N 05331W 5152 05644 0291 -037 -077 056006 007 009 000 00
203700 1256N 05329W 5153 05642 0290 -038 -082 052007 007 007 000 00
203730 1256N 05327W 5152 05644 0290 -037 -085 056007 008 013 000 00
203800 1256N 05324W 5153 05641 0290 -034 -084 057007 007 019 003 00
203830 1256N 05322W 5152 05644 0290 -036 -088 062007 008 012 000 00
203900 1256N 05319W 5151 05645 0291 -038 -093 062009 010 012 000 00
203930 1256N 05317W 5151 05645 0291 -035 -096 070010 010 011 000 00
204000 1256N 05314W 5152 05644 0291 -036 -100 071010 010 012 000 00
204030 1255N 05312W 5153 05642 0290 -035 -102 065009 009 013 000 00
204100 1255N 05310W 5153 05642 0290 -034 -102 053009 009 015 000 00
204130 1255N 05307W 5153 05642 0290 -036 -103 052009 009 013 000 00
204200 1255N 05305W 5153 05642 0290 -037 -105 054008 009 012 000 00
204230 1255N 05302W 5153 05642 0291 -038 -107 050009 009 011 000 00
204300 1255N 05300W 5154 05641 0290 -036 -105 049008 009 011 000 00
204330 1255N 05257W 5153 05643 0291 -036 -105 054008 008 012 000 00
204400 1255N 05255W 5153 05644 0291 -038 -101 058009 009 012 000 00
204430 1255N 05253W 5152 05645 0292 -037 -095 053009 009 010 000 00

[HURAKAN]

If I were in Bermuda, I would pay a lot of attention to Karen.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: If I were in Bermuda, I would pay a lot of attention to Karen.

Absolutly true.That is why the term fish for Karen has to put on hold.

[punkyg]

000
URNT15 KWBC 262054
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 10 20070926
204500 1255N 05250W 5153 05645 0293 -037 -094 051009 009 010 000 00
204530 1254N 05248W 5153 05646 0294 -037 -090 053008 009 007 000 00
204600 1254N 05245W 5154 05644 0293 -035 -088 044008 008 007 000 00
204630 1254N 05243W 5153 05645 0293 -034 -085 038008 008 006 000 00
204700 1254N 05241W 5153 05646 0295 -035 -075 045008 008 008 000 00
204730 1254N 05238W 5153 05647 0295 -035 -068 042008 008 007 000 00
204800 1254N 05236W 5153 05647 0294 -036 -063 039008 008 008 000 00
204830 1254N 05233W 5153 05645 0293 -035 -060 032008 008 008 000 00
204900 1254N 05231W 5153 05645 0293 -035 -060 030008 008 006 000 00
204930 1254N 05228W 5153 05645 0293 -035 -061 032008 009 005 000 00
205000 1254N 05226W 5153 05645 0294 -034 -059 031008 009 006 000 00
205030 1254N 05223W 5153 05646 0294 -032 -058 029008 008 007 000 00
205100 1254N 05221W 5153 05645 0294 -031 -060 035008 008 006 000 00
205130 1253N 05219W 5152 05647 0294 -030 -065 040008 008 006 000 00
205200 1253N 05216W 5153 05646 0294 -030 -066 050007 007 006 000 00
205230 1253N 05214W 5153 05645 0294 -030 -191 047006 007 004 000 00
205300 1253N 05211W 5152 05646 0294 -030 -318 053007 007 003 000 03
205330 1253N 05209W 5153 05646 0294 -030 -339 047006 006 003 000 03
205400 1253N 05206W 5152 05645 0294 -031 -344 045006 006 003 000 03
205430 1253N 05204W 5153 05647 0294 -032 -346 052006 006 003 000 03

[webbcomm]

Question,,,

Does anyone know how long the high protecting the Texas & Louisiana Gulf coast is going to hold?

[curtadams]

:uarrow: If I were in Bermuda, I would pay a lot of attention to Karen.

Absolutly true.That is why the term fish for Karen has to put on hold.

It's never over 'til it's over. But Bermuda is small, and things look very promising.

[punkyg]

000
URNT15 KWBC 262104
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 11 20070926
205500 1253N 05201W 5153 05647 0294 -033 -379 058006 006 003 000 00
205530 1253N 05159W 5153 05646 0294 -033 -333 059006 006 004 000 00
205600 1253N 05157W 5153 05647 0295 -032 -367 057006 006 004 000 00
205630 1253N 05154W 5152 05647 0295 -031 -378 058007 007 003 000 00
205700 1252N 05152W 5153 05647 0295 -030 -358 054007 007 003 000 00
205730 1252N 05149W 5153 05647 0295 -032 -307 065007 008 003 000 00
205800 1252N 05147W 5152 05647 0295 -032 -264 070007 008 004 000 00
205830 1252N 05144W 5152 05649 0296 -031 -239 072007 007 005 000 00
205900 1252N 05142W 5153 05647 0295 -030 -245 075007 007 004 000 00
205930 1252N 05139W 5152 05647 0295 -030 -234 076007 007 004 000 00
210000 1252N 05137W 5152 05647 0295 -030 -207 078008 008 005 000 00
210030 1252N 05135W 5152 05649 0296 -030 -211 081008 008 004 000 00
210100 1252N 05132W 5152 05649 0295 -030 -217 079008 008 004 000 00
210130 1252N 05130W 5153 05646 0295 -030 -240 075008 008 003 000 00
210200 1251N 05127W 5153 05646 0294 -030 -246 073007 007 004 000 00
210230 1251N 05125W 5152 05647 0294 -030 -242 074008 008 003 000 00
210300 1251N 05122W 5153 05646 0294 -027 -291 077008 008 003 000 00
210330 1251N 05120W 5153 05646 0294 -030 -275 072007 007 003 000 00
210400 1251N 05118W 5152 05647 0294 -031 -264 067007 008 003 000 00
210430 1251N 05115W 5153 05646 0295 -030 -312 072007 007 003 000 00

[americanrebel]

When does everyone think this will become a Hurricane?

If Karen strenghtens faster than what everybody thinks, would this cause the course to go more W or more N, just wondering?

[punkyg]

000
URNT15 KWBC 262114
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 12 20070926
210500 1251N 05113W 5153 05647 0295 -029 -267 072008 008 004 000 00
210530 1251N 05110W 5153 05646 0295 -028 -288 072009 009 005 000 00
210600 1251N 05108W 5153 05647 0295 -028 -283 070009 010 004 000 00
210630 1251N 05105W 5153 05647 0295 -028 -274 067010 010 004 000 00
210700 1251N 05103W 5153 05646 0295 -027 -260 063009 010 003 000 00
210730 1250N 05101W 5153 05646 0295 -028 -264 055009 009 005 000 00
210800 1250N 05058W 5153 05646 0295 -028 -265 052008 008 005 000 00
210830 1250N 05056W 5153 05646 0295 -028 -307 053009 009 004 000 00
210900 1250N 05053W 5154 05646 0295 -028 -306 052009 009 004 000 00
210930 1250N 05051W 5153 05647 0296 -029 -290 054010 010 004 000 00
211000 1250N 05048W 5153 05647 0296 -028 -324 056009 010 003 000 00
211030 1250N 05046W 5153 05649 0296 -026 -401 064010 010 003 000 03
211100 1250N 05044W 5152 05650 0296 -027 -437 062009 010 004 000 00
211130 1250N 05041W 5153 05647 0296 -027 -444 065010 010 002 000 03
211200 1249N 05039W 5153 05649 0297 -026 -459 067010 010 003 000 03
211230 1249N 05036W 5154 05647 0297 -026 -461 065011 011 002 000 03
211300 1249N 05034W 5153 05649 0297 -027 -464 062011 011 003 000 00
211330 1249N 05031W 5153 05649 0297 -027 -468 063011 011 003 000 00
211400 1249N 05029W 5153 05649 0297 -027 -469 062011 011 003 000 03
211430 1249N 05027W 5153 05649 0297 -030 -467 058012 012 003 000 03

[tolakram]

Track keeps moving left.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[Evil Jeremy]

The weaker the west, the stronger the more north.

[americanrebel]

I definitely seeing this storm doing totally opposite of the models. Like going a little N of the Leeward Islands and going over the Florida Peninsula and then going into the GOM. Just my Humble Opinion.

[Nimbus]

I think I see a mid caribbean high starting to build. That would mean a trough on the east side of the high. Karen looks like she is going to have a lot of shear unless she heads north with the flow. I'm actually a lot more worried about something developing under that mid caribbean high as it builds west early next week. Do we have a thread on this yet?

[Wx_Warrior]

WOW...I hope you are kidding, right?

Going all-in OPPOSITE of your GOM call.

[punkyg]

000
URNT15 KWBC 262124
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 13 20070926
211500 1249N 05024W 5153 05649 0297 -028 -466 064011 012 003 000 03
211530 1249N 05022W 5153 05650 0298 -027 -455 068011 012 999 999 03
211600 1249N 05019W 5153 05650 0299 -027 -433 066011 011 003 000 03
211630 1249N 05017W 5153 05651 0300 -027 -456 071011 012 002 000 00
211700 1248N 05014W 5153 05651 0299 -027 -434 071011 011 999 999 03
211730 1248N 05012W 5153 05650 0299 -027 -451 072011 011 003 000 03
211800 1248N 05010W 5154 05650 0299 -026 -458 069012 012 003 000 00
211830 1248N 05007W 5154 05650 0300 -026 -435 070011 011 003 000 03
211900 1248N 05005W 5153 05652 0300 -026 -464 067011 012 999 999 03
211930 1248N 05002W 5153 05652 0301 -026 -453 066012 012 999 999 03
212000 1248N 05000W 5153 05653 0302 -026 -435 065012 013 003 000 03
212030 1247N 04958W 5153 05653 0302 -026 -434 067012 013 004 000 00
212100 1247N 04955W 5154 05653 0303 -026 -435 062012 012 004 000 03
212130 1247N 04953W 5154 05652 0302 -025 -385 060011 011 004 000 00
212200 1247N 04950W 5153 05653 0302 -025 -394 062011 011 003 000 00
212230 1247N 04948W 5154 05652 0302 -025 -407 065010 010 003 000 00
212300 1247N 04945W 5154 05652 0302 -027 -445 068009 009 004 000 00
212330 1247N 04943W 5154 05652 0302 -025 -436 067011 011 003 000 00
212400 1246N 04941W 5154 05652 0303 -025 -403 064011 011 003 000 00
212430 1246N 04938W 5153 05654 0303 -025 -401 057010 010 003 000 00

[cycloneye]

1247N 04958W

The plane is still far from Karen as it now crossed the 50w longitud.

[jaxfladude]

Track keeps moving left.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_5W.shtml

I am now Hypnotized!!!

[punkyg]

I can only post 3 more cause my sister is starting to bother me over the computer so after the thrid one can some one else take over?