Waiting for the On-Switch

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Stormcenter
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Re:

#101 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 26, 2007 4:53 pm

jschlitz wrote:This is my favorite thread in a long time.

It's a microcosm of the battle that has raged all season long.

It's not even October folks - its' too early to refer to the season in the past tense - it's not over 'till it's over!!



The point I'm trying to make is that history has proven that very rarely do we have "major" hurricanes this late in the season. Yes it can happen but it is much less likely now and everyday that passes then two weeks ago. The "major" canes are the ones I worry about and right now despite the increased activity things look good. But I will never say naver.
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Re: Re:

#102 Postby jasons2k » Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:29 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
jschlitz wrote:This is my favorite thread in a long time.

It's a microcosm of the battle that has raged all season long.

It's not even October folks - its' too early to refer to the season in the past tense - it's not over 'till it's over!!


The point I'm trying to make is that history has proven that very rarely do we have "major" hurricanes this late in the season. Yes it can happen but it is much less likely now and everyday that passes then two weeks ago. The "major" canes are the ones I worry about and right now despite the increased activity things look good. But I will never say naver.


Hey Stormcenter FWIW my comments were not directed at you....but there have been plenty of others that declared this season dead or saying the "season turned out to be....after all" etc. We can't say "after all" or this season "turned out" to be anything until maybe November. BUT........speaking of majors....when was Wilma again?? :wink:
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Re: Re:

#103 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Sep 26, 2007 7:26 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
jschlitz wrote:This is my favorite thread in a long time.

It's a microcosm of the battle that has raged all season long.

It's not even October folks - its' too early to refer to the season in the past tense - it's not over 'till it's over!!



The point I'm trying to make is that history has proven that very rarely do we have "major" hurricanes this late in the season. Yes it can happen but it is much less likely now and everyday that passes then two weeks ago. The "major" canes are the ones I worry about and right now despite the increased activity things look good. But I will never say naver.

Wilma, Hazel, Opal, Mitch and Hattie are all examples that major hurricanes can and do develop this late in the season.
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Re: Re:

#104 Postby Category 5 » Wed Sep 26, 2007 9:05 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
jschlitz wrote:This is my favorite thread in a long time.

It's a microcosm of the battle that has raged all season long.

It's not even October folks - its' too early to refer to the season in the past tense - it's not over 'till it's over!!



The point I'm trying to make is that history has proven that very rarely do we have "major" hurricanes this late in the season. Yes it can happen but it is much less likely now and everyday that passes then two weeks ago. The "major" canes are the ones I worry about and right now despite the increased activity things look good. But I will never say naver.

Wilma, Hazel, Opal, Mitch and Hattie are all examples that major hurricanes can and do develop this late in the season.


Lenny, Michelle, Beta.
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch

#105 Postby frederic79 » Wed Sep 26, 2007 9:14 pm

One BIG difference, in 2007 vs. most other typical late Septembers/early Octobers is the pattern. It seems more like an early September pattern, not late September. If that were not the case, climotology would pretty much mean most of the CONUS was safe from landfalling hurricanes.
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MiamiensisWx

Re: Re:

#106 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Sep 26, 2007 9:42 pm

Stormcenter wrote:The point I'm trying to make is that history has proven that very rarely do we have "major" hurricanes this late in the season. Yes it can happen but it is much less likely now and everyday that passes then two weeks ago. The "major" canes are the ones I worry about and right now despite the increased activity things look good. But I will never say naver.

Did you see the images after Category 1 Humberto? If you actually experience sustained Category 1 winds, you will know it is not a picnic.

Secondly, history (non-2005 years) has proven that your first statement is false. Louisiana has been hit by several hurricanes (including intense Category 3/4 storms) several times in late September and October. I perused data; I found several systems. Note that these tropical cyclones only constitute a portion of the historical records; many other systems hit the area in the aforementioned time frame.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1926/3/track.gif (listed as a Category 3 landfall in the official NOAA list)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1915/5/track.gif (Category 4 landfall in LA)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1964/HILDA/track.gif (Category 3 landfall in LA)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1886/10/track.gif (Category 3 landfall in LA)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1893/10/track.gif (Category 4 landfall in LA)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1909/8/track.gif (Category 3 landfall in LA)

Climatology indicates the United States has been hit in October during many non-2007 and non-2005 years. Some additional examples of late season monsters:

1) Storm 9 (1893) - Category 3 in October; CV TC made United States landfall
2) Storm 8 (1906) - Category 3 in October; made landfall in southern FL
3) Storm 5 (1910) - Category 4 in October; made landfall in SW Florida
4) Storm 10 (1926) - Category 4 in October; made landfall in Cuba
5) Storm 2 (1929) - Category 4 in October; made landfall in the Bahamas and FL (Keys and Panhandle)

Don't forget Storm 10 (1932), Storm 4 (1935), Storm 11 (1944), Ione '55, Janet '55, Helene '58, Gracie '59, Hattie '61, Inez '66, Opal '95, Roxanne '95, Georges '98, Keith (2000), Iris (2001), Karl (2004), and other storms.

Sources:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.html
http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NWS-TPC-5.pdf
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/index.html (reanalysis project can be found here)
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americanrebel

#107 Postby americanrebel » Wed Sep 26, 2007 9:48 pm

Looking at a lot of those numbers, looks like it is about time for the 100 year storm series of years to start again.
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