Stormcenter wrote:The point I'm trying to make is that history has proven that very rarely do we have "major" hurricanes this late in the season. Yes it can happen but it is much less likely now and everyday that passes then two weeks ago. The "major" canes are the ones I worry about and right now despite the increased activity things look good. But I will never say naver.
Did you see the images after Category 1 Humberto? If you actually experience sustained Category 1 winds, you will know it is not a picnic.
Secondly, history (non-2005 years) has proven that your first statement is false. Louisiana has been hit by several hurricanes (including intense Category 3/4 storms) several times in late September and October. I perused data; I found several systems. Note that these tropical cyclones only constitute a portion of the historical records; many other systems hit the area in the aforementioned time frame.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1926/3/track.gif (listed as a Category 3 landfall in the official NOAA list)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1915/5/track.gif (Category 4 landfall in LA)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1964/HILDA/track.gif (Category 3 landfall in LA)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1886/10/track.gif (Category 3 landfall in LA)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1893/10/track.gif (Category 4 landfall in LA)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1909/8/track.gif (Category 3 landfall in LA)
Climatology indicates the United States has been hit in October during many non-2007 and non-2005 years. Some additional examples of late season monsters:
1)
Storm 9 (1893) - Category 3 in October; CV TC made United States landfall
2)
Storm 8 (1906) - Category 3 in October; made landfall in southern FL
3)
Storm 5 (1910) - Category 4 in October; made landfall in SW Florida
4)
Storm 10 (1926) - Category 4 in October; made landfall in Cuba
5)
Storm 2 (1929) - Category 4 in October; made landfall in the Bahamas and FL (Keys and Panhandle)
Don't forget Storm 10 (1932), Storm 4 (1935), Storm 11 (1944), Ione '55, Janet '55, Helene '58, Gracie '59, Hattie '61, Inez '66, Opal '95, Roxanne '95, Georges '98, Keith (2000), Iris (2001), Karl (2004), and other storms.
Sources:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.htmlhttp://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NWS-TPC-5.pdfhttp://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/index.html (reanalysis project can be found
here)