Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

Models initialized at 65 kt...even though I disagree with that...

[Cyclone1]

I had a feeling they'd upgrade. 2kt from a hurricane is basically a hurricane.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 270054
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 34 20070927
004500 1124N 04358W 6960 03217 0132 +082 +013 219042 042 006 000 00
004530 1124N 04356W 6959 03221 0137 +078 +030 216042 043 006 000 00
004600 1124N 04354W 6958 03221 0137 +080 +005 217042 042 006 000 00
004630 1124N 04351W 6959 03219 0133 +084 -018 216042 042 006 000 00
004700 1124N 04349W 6958 03220 0132 +085 -030 216042 043 005 000 00
004730 1124N 04347W 6958 03220 0128 +082 +052 215043 043 004 000 00
004800 1124N 04344W 6958 03221 0132 +079 +061 214043 044 004 000 03
004830 1124N 04342W 6957 03222 0133 +078 +056 212043 043 004 000 00
004900 1126N 04340W 6960 03217 0134 +076 +059 209042 043 999 999 03
004930 1128N 04341W 6960 03216 0130 +079 +051 209041 042 009 000 00
005000 1130N 04342W 6959 03217 0132 +078 +042 207043 044 011 000 00
005030 1132N 04343W 6958 03217 0130 +082 -002 206043 043 009 000 00
005100 1134N 04344W 6960 03214 0130 +079 +033 205043 043 012 000 00
005130 1136N 04345W 6959 03216 0134 +080 -015 204044 044 014 000 00
005200 1138N 04346W 6958 03216 0132 +081 -019 209045 045 016 000 00
005230 1140N 04347W 6957 03218 0133 +080 -006 209045 046 017 000 00
005300 1142N 04349W 6961 03213 0131 +080 +015 208045 045 018 000 00
005330 1144N 04350W 6957 03214 0129 +081 -002 206046 047 021 000 00
005400 1146N 04351W 6960 03210 0126 +081 +009 204047 048 020 000 00
005430 1148N 04352W 6958 03212 0125 +080 +015 204047 048 022 000 00

[Derek Ortt]

YOU HAVE TO BE KIDDING!

64KT is 64KT... 62 does not equal 64

[DESTRUCTION5]

630
WHXX01 KWBC 270055
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0055 UTC THU SEP 27 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN (AL122007) 20070927 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070927 0000 070927 1200 070928 0000 070928 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 44.6W 14.4N 47.3W 16.0N 49.8W 17.6N 52.2W
BAMD 12.8N 44.6W 14.1N 46.5W 15.8N 47.9W 17.3N 48.8W
BAMM 12.8N 44.6W 14.0N 47.0W 15.4N 48.9W 16.5N 50.5W
LBAR 12.8N 44.6W 14.3N 46.4W 16.1N 48.0W 17.3N 49.4W
SHIP 65KTS 68KTS 69KTS 66KTS
DSHP 65KTS 68KTS 69KTS 66KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070929 0000 070930 0000 071001 0000 071002 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.0N 53.8W 21.0N 57.0W 22.9N 59.4W 24.2N 61.1W
BAMD 18.9N 48.9W 21.4N 49.8W 24.4N 50.5W 27.7N 50.0W
BAMM 17.6N 51.4W 19.2N 53.0W 21.1N 54.3W 22.7N 55.2W
LBAR 18.3N 50.4W 20.2N 52.1W 22.6N 52.9W 24.8N 52.2W
SHIP 62KTS 57KTS 53KTS 52KTS
DSHP 62KTS 57KTS 53KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 44.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 42.5W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 40.4W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 180NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 150NM

$$
65kts

Id Call that our 4th Cane of the season..

[CrazyC83]

I had a feeling they'd upgrade. 2kt from a hurricane is basically a hurricane.

It rounds down to 60, and hurricane starts at 64, not 62. In my mind it is still Tropical Storm Karen, regardless of what they say.

[CrazyC83]

630
WHXX01 KWBC 270055
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0055 UTC THU SEP 27 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN (AL122007) 20070927 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070927 0000 070927 1200 070928 0000 070928 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 44.6W 14.4N 47.3W 16.0N 49.8W 17.6N 52.2W
BAMD 12.8N 44.6W 14.1N 46.5W 15.8N 47.9W 17.3N 48.8W
BAMM 12.8N 44.6W 14.0N 47.0W 15.4N 48.9W 16.5N 50.5W
LBAR 12.8N 44.6W 14.3N 46.4W 16.1N 48.0W 17.3N 49.4W
SHIP 65KTS 68KTS 69KTS 66KTS
DSHP 65KTS 68KTS 69KTS 66KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070929 0000 070930 0000 071001 0000 071002 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.0N 53.8W 21.0N 57.0W 22.9N 59.4W 24.2N 61.1W
BAMD 18.9N 48.9W 21.4N 49.8W 24.4N 50.5W 27.7N 50.0W
BAMM 17.6N 51.4W 19.2N 53.0W 21.1N 54.3W 22.7N 55.2W
LBAR 18.3N 50.4W 20.2N 52.1W 22.6N 52.9W 24.8N 52.2W
SHIP 62KTS 57KTS 53KTS 52KTS
DSHP 62KTS 57KTS 53KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 44.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 42.5W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 40.4W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 180NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 150NM

$$
65kts

Id Call that our 4th Cane of the season..

I wonder what data they see? I see nothing to support an upgrade at this point. IMO it is still a tropical storm.

[brunota2003]

YOU HAVE TO BE KIDDING!

64KT is 64KT... 62 does not equal 64

But assuming the highest winds were not sampled, then yes 62 knots = 64 knots. We've seen it time and again, what surprises you about it this time?

[Derek Ortt]

for the record,

I am NOT making a personal attack against the forecasters at NHC. I am STRONGLY disagreeing with their decision from a science standpoint

[Cyclone1]

I had a feeling they'd upgrade. 2kt from a hurricane is basically a hurricane.

It rounds down to 60, and hurricane starts at 64, not 62. In my mind it is still Tropical Storm Karen, regardless of what they say.

It's 2kt. Not a huge deal, people. It was bound to be a hurricane anyway.

[Buck]

It doesn't really hurt anyone whether they keep it or bump it right now.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 270104
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 35 20070927
005500 1150N 04353W 6961 03208 0126 +076 +040 204049 050 021 001 00
005530 1152N 04354W 6954 03215 0124 +073 +071 207044 046 021 005 00
005600 1154N 04356W 6963 03202 0118 +079 +063 201050 052 024 001 00
005630 1156N 04357W 6958 03209 0126 +076 +028 200047 048 023 002 00
005700 1158N 04358W 6959 03209 0124 +077 +029 200048 049 019 000 00
005730 1200N 04359W 6956 03209 0123 +076 +034 197048 048 014 000 00
005800 1202N 04400W 6959 03204 0119 +077 +035 198048 049 017 000 00
005830 1204N 04402W 6958 03203 0114 +079 +032 200048 048 016 000 00
005900 1206N 04403W 6960 03200 0114 +079 +029 197051 051 012 000 00
005930 1208N 04404W 6959 03200 0114 +075 +058 197049 052 018 001 00
010000 1210N 04405W 6955 03204 0096 +083 +083 200044 047 023 004 00
010030 1212N 04406W 6957 03199 0103 +084 +037 197051 052 022 000 00
010100 1214N 04408W 6959 03196 0105 +082 +026 197052 052 023 000 00
010130 1216N 04409W 6958 03196 0102 +079 +060 199050 051 023 000 00
010200 1218N 04410W 6958 03193 0097 +081 +068 199049 050 024 000 00
010230 1220N 04411W 6958 03194 0090 +084 +083 200047 047 025 000 00
010300 1222N 04412W 6958 03191 0088 +085 +077 201047 047 026 000 00
010330 1224N 04414W 6957 03192 0083 +088 +082 202046 047 026 000 00
010400 1226N 04415W 6959 03187 0083 +085 +083 201046 047 028 000 00
010430 1228N 04416W 6958 03188 0078 +089 +077 206044 044 029 000 00

[Derek Ortt]

never assume in science... one lesson that has been engrained firmly into my brain. I used to make assumptions; however, many turned out wrong

[Cyclone1]

for the record,

I am NOT making a personal attack against the forecasters at NHC. I am STRONGLY disagreeing with their decision from a science standpoint

I agree, maybe it's not a hurricane. But what does it REALLY matter? Getting a hurricane at 11pm, as opposed to 5am? 2kt isn't that much.

[CrazyC83]

for the record,

I am NOT making a personal attack against the forecasters at NHC. I am STRONGLY disagreeing with their decision from a science standpoint

Good points. They may see something not publicly available that supports it. But from my eyes, I agree with you - it is not a hurricane. I'd put it at 60 kt right now with the data available.

[brunota2003]

Well, when it comes to just a mere 2 knots, assuming there are stronger winds somewhere is basically guarenteed. Hence the upgrade. However, will they go with a hurricane at 11 pm? Who knows, they might hold it at 60 knots.

EDIT: If Recon does not find the strong winds again, it is highly possible they stick with 60 knots and say it "may of been a hurricane between advisories" and go from there, just because the models say hurricane doesnt mean that is what it'll be 100% of the time. I've seen wayyy stranger stuff.

[Coredesat]

Well, when it comes to just a mere 2 knots, assuming there are stronger winds somewhere is basically guarenteed. Hence the upgrade. However, will they go with a hurricane at 11 pm? Who knows, they might hold it at 60 knots.

EDIT: If Recon does not find the strong winds again, it is highly possible they stick with 60 knots and say it "may of been a hurricane between advisories" and go from there, just because the models say hurricane doesnt mean that is what it'll be 100% of the time. I've seen wayyy stranger stuff.

I agree with this assessment, especially given that SFMR obs have been unreliable recently, and flight-level winds don't exactly warrant hurricane strength just yet. Now, if recon finds stronger winds, then I'd be more convinced of it.

[Cyclone1]

Well, when it comes to just a mere 2 knots, assuming there are stronger winds somewhere is basically guarenteed. Hence the upgrade. However, will they go with a hurricane at 11 pm? Who knows, they might hold it at 60 knots.

EDIT: If Recon does not find the strong winds again, it is highly possible they stick with 60 knots and say it "may of been a hurricane between advisories" and go from there, just because the models say hurricane doesnt mean that is what it'll be 100% of the time. I've seen wayyy stranger stuff.

So have I. Beryl in 82 is a good example.

Either way, it's not a matter of a post storm analysis downgrade, it'll likely become a hurricane anyway, so maybe an upgrade little too early doesn't really matter in the long run. Especially on a far out-to-sea storm that could very well be a fish.

[Extremecane]

very deep convection and alot o

[JonathanBelles]

Right now I could see it going either way, Im leaning toward the upgrade, but I wont be surprised if it stays at 60kt.