Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

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Buck
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#881 Postby Buck » Wed Sep 26, 2007 8:18 pm

Science is observation and therefore we can't assume hurricane based on observations that show it's not. But, it could be a hurricane and we just didn't find the highest winds to verify that.

BUT... it's not worth us getting our knickers all in a twist over.
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#882 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 26, 2007 8:18 pm

URNT15 KWBC 270114
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 36 20070927
010500 1230N 04417W 6958 03183 0075 +089 +070 208045 046 031 000 00
010530 1232N 04418W 6958 03185 0073 +090 +067 209043 044 028 000 03
010600 1234N 04420W 6959 03178 0070 +090 +066 207044 045 032 000 00
010630 1235N 04422W 6958 03177 0060 +096 +057 214042 043 032 000 00
010700 1237N 04423W 6959 03174 0055 +097 +073 214041 042 034 000 00
010730 1238N 04425W 6958 03172 0057 +092 +087 213041 042 035 001 00
010800 1240N 04426W 6958 03174 0058 +090 +089 217039 040 038 000 00
010830 1241N 04428W 6957 03172 0051 +093 +093 218039 040 039 000 00
010900 1243N 04430W 6957 03171 0047 +095 +094 222039 039 039 000 00
010930 1244N 04431W 6959 03164 0037 +099 +096 223039 039 040 000 00
011000 1246N 04433W 6957 03165 0034 +099 +099 217036 040 042 000 00
011030 1247N 04434W 6960 03161 0014 +115 +106 219028 029 042 000 00
011100 1249N 04436W 6957 03164 0007 +120 +102 224026 028 042 000 00
011130 1250N 04438W 6961 03156 0000 +125 +097 215023 023 039 000 00
011200 1251N 04439W 6958 03156 9988 +131 +101 219020 021 036 000 00
011230 1253N 04441W 6961 03150 9982 +134 +101 209019 019 033 000 00
011300 1254N 04443W 6959 03150 9973 +139 +097 209015 017 031 001 00
011330 1255N 04445W 6957 03152 9956 +153 +087 236006 008 028 000 00
011400 1256N 04446W 6960 03147 9955 +154 +084 282009 011 021 000 00
011430 1258N 04448W 6960 03144 9949 +156 +083 281006 007 005 000 00

Another run at the core.
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: Central ATL: Global & BAM Models

#883 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 26, 2007 8:19 pm

Good NW turn in last few hours.
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images

#884 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 26, 2007 8:19 pm

Extremecane wrote:very deep convection and alot o

Image


Looks the best it has since early afternoon...
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images

#885 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 26, 2007 8:20 pm

Well into NW pull-up now.
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Derek Ortt

#886 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Sep 26, 2007 8:22 pm

this is not moving NW

The convection is because of the shear... the LLC is still moving 295, just as NHC initialized the models
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Re:

#887 Postby Cyclone1 » Wed Sep 26, 2007 8:23 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:this is not moving NW

The convection is because of the shear... the LLC is still moving 295, just as NHC initialized the models


You beat me to posting that, I agree totally. Just an illusion.
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americanrebel

#888 Postby americanrebel » Wed Sep 26, 2007 8:25 pm

So at what time should we know for sure if this is a Hurricane or still a TS? 10 Central, 11 Eastern
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Re:

#889 Postby Cyclone1 » Wed Sep 26, 2007 8:26 pm

americanrebel wrote:So at what time should we know for sure if this is a Hurricane or still a TS? 10 Central, 11 Eastern


Yes
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#890 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 26, 2007 8:28 pm

URNT15 KWBC 270124
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 37 20070927
011500 1300N 04448W 6961 03142 9941 +160 +079 283005 006 002 000 03
011530 1302N 04448W 6962 03136 9942 +158 +079 234001 004 008 000 00
011600 1304N 04448W 6959 03138 9944 +153 +082 098004 007 009 000 03
011630 1306N 04448W 6960 03136 9947 +151 +084 088007 009 028 001 03
011700 1308N 04449W 6961 03134 9943 +154 +080 085011 011 049 002 00
011730 1309N 04450W 6956 03142 9955 +143 +093 097013 016 062 003 00
011800 1311N 04451W 6954 03146 9959 +141 +097 103014 015 057 005 00
011830 1313N 04452W 6961 03138 9965 +135 +107 109021 023 055 005 00
011900 1315N 04454W 6959 03141 9971 +131 +108 104025 028 057 002 00
011930 1317N 04455W 6960 03143 9988 +118 +118 103030 031 055 002 00
012000 1319N 04456W 6960 03144 9990 +118 +116 103032 037 055 002 00
012030 1321N 04457W 6958 03153 0004 +109 +109 104040 041 054 003 00
012100 1323N 04458W 6959 03155 0008 +110 +110 107044 047 053 002 00
012130 1325N 04500W 6958 03161 0016 +109 +109 107048 050 052 001 00
012200 1328N 04501W 6958 03166 0021 +110 +110 106050 051 050 001 00
012230 1330N 04502W 6958 03172 0030 +108 +108 101047 049 051 002 00
012300 1332N 04503W 6956 03178 0028 +115 +108 089043 047 049 001 00
012330 1334N 04505W 6959 03177 0034 +112 +104 094036 037 049 000 00
012400 1336N 04506W 6960 03178 0043 +107 +102 094038 039 048 000 00
012430 1338N 04507W 6960 03180 0046 +106 +101 092042 043 046 000 00

62 kt SFMR again.
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images

#891 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 26, 2007 8:32 pm

Shortwave IR puts the center way out to the west of that main convection blob - which means the system is fairly sheared.
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images

#892 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 26, 2007 8:39 pm

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/index. ... 52&large=1

I'm always amazed how far north these storms get when they start out near the ITCZ.
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#893 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 26, 2007 8:39 pm

URNT15 KWBC 270134
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 38 20070927
012500 1340N 04508W 6960 03180 0043 +111 +098 092043 044 042 002 00
012530 1342N 04509W 6959 03183 0050 +107 +101 093041 041 044 000 00
012600 1344N 04510W 6958 03187 0061 +100 +097 093039 041 046 000 00
012630 1346N 04512W 6958 03188 0066 +098 +094 094039 040 039 000 00
012700 1348N 04513W 6958 03192 0069 +098 +096 093041 041 040 000 00
012730 1350N 04514W 6958 03194 0079 +091 +091 090043 045 041 000 00
012800 1352N 04515W 6958 03196 0078 +092 +092 088044 046 039 001 00
012830 1354N 04516W 6959 03197 0076 +096 +096 087043 044 040 001 00
012900 1355N 04517W 6959 03199 0080 +093 +093 089044 045 038 002 00
012930 1357N 04519W 6959 03199 0082 +093 +093 092044 044 037 000 00
013000 1359N 04520W 6959 03201 0085 +093 +093 093044 045 038 001 00
013030 1401N 04521W 6958 03204 0090 +092 +092 094045 046 037 001 00
013100 1403N 04522W 6959 03204 0091 +092 +092 093044 046 036 002 00
013130 1405N 04524W 6957 03209 0092 +093 +093 089040 041 039 002 00
013200 1407N 04525W 6957 03210 0093 +094 +094 088037 038 037 000 00
013230 1409N 04526W 6958 03211 0097 +092 +092 089034 035 038 001 00
013300 1411N 04527W 6957 03213 0099 +091 +091 088033 034 035 000 00
013330 1413N 04528W 6959 03211 0102 +090 +090 093036 037 036 001 00
013400 1415N 04529W 6958 03214 0105 +090 +088 087035 036 035 001 00
013430 1417N 04531W 6958 03215 0103 +093 +081 085035 036 034 000 00
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#894 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Sep 26, 2007 8:40 pm

Karen not looking so good, her LLC is about to become exposed.
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#895 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 26, 2007 8:55 pm

URNT12 KWBC 270128
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/0115Z
B. 13 DEG 1 MIN N
44 DEG 48 MIN W
C. 700 MB 3089 M
D. 42 KT
E. 137 DEG 17 NM
F. 198 DEG 52 KT
G. 140 DEG 61 NM
H. 997 MB
I. 15 C/3061 M
J. 16 C/3056 M
K. 8 C/NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/7
O. 1/3 NM
P. NOAA3 0112A KAREN OB 13 AL122007
MAX FL WIND 68 KT NE QUAD 2350Z
MAX SFMR WIND 42 KT SE QUAD 0111Z
MAX SFMR WIND 62 KT NW QUAD 0117Z
SLP FROM DROPSONDE
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#896 Postby hurricanetrack » Wed Sep 26, 2007 8:57 pm

Yikes- that sounds rather nasty. Karen's low level center is about to be exposed...hmm...

Sorry, but that was just too tasty not to grab off the line.
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#897 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 26, 2007 8:59 pm

URNT15 KWBC 270144
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 39 20070927
013500 1419N 04532W 6959 03213 0104 +093 +079 088034 035 035 000 00
013530 1421N 04533W 6958 03216 0107 +091 +082 088034 034 037 000 00
013600 1423N 04534W 6958 03217 0114 +088 +077 085033 034 037 000 00
013630 1425N 04535W 6959 03216 0112 +091 +070 087032 032 033 000 00
013700 1427N 04536W 6958 03219 0110 +092 +073 091031 032 034 000 00
013730 1429N 04538W 6958 03217 0115 +088 +076 090033 034 033 000 00
013800 1431N 04539W 6958 03220 0121 +085 +071 089035 036 033 000 00
013830 1433N 04540W 6955 03225 0123 +086 +068 079037 038 032 000 03
013900 1433N 04542W 6840 03368 0121 +083 +051 075036 037 034 000 00
013930 1433N 04545W 6614 03645 0115 +070 +042 077029 031 036 000 00
014000 1433N 04547W 6422 03887 0114 +054 +038 072027 027 037 000 00
014030 1433N 04550W 6254 04103 0112 +042 +025 074028 029 037 000 00
014100 1432N 04552W 6104 04300 0109 +032 +012 074030 030 035 000 00
014130 1432N 04555W 5977 04470 0104 +024 +003 069032 033 035 000 00
014200 1432N 04557W 5865 04625 0091 +021 -009 060034 034 035 000 00
014230 1432N 04559W 5742 04795 0088 +013 -015 061035 036 033 000 00
014300 1432N 04602W 5635 04946 0090 +001 -018 061035 035 032 001 00
014330 1431N 04604W 5526 05104 0097 -011 -029 062035 036 030 000 00
014400 1431N 04607W 5419 05261 0284 -023 -039 062033 034 028 001 00
014430 1431N 04609W 5304 05432 0296 -020 -081 054030 031 026 000 00

Plane ascending - mission is over.
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussion of Recon Data

#898 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 26, 2007 9:02 pm

In summary Crazy,what was the highest wind data found in this mission?
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#899 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Sep 26, 2007 9:05 pm

Im gonna retract an earlier statement and say that a max TS is more likely than a hurricane, but you could argue a case in either direction.
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Re:

#900 Postby Category 5 » Wed Sep 26, 2007 9:07 pm

fact789 wrote:Im gonna retract an earlier statement and say that a max TS is more likely than a hurricane, but you could argue a case in either direction.


Agree completely. This is very borderline, I think it's a strong TS from the Recon obs. But I wouldn't be against an upgrade ether. This could go ether way.
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